Scottish Grand National

Remember Nicky was home and dry until Neptune won the National

PN is going to be very hard to beat and I get the impression that Nicky has given up the ghost

He seems more interested in resting his best horses and going to Ireland.

Because horses were 110% fit for Cheltenham we can get some funny results at Aintree because some horses are over the top.

I can't see Wullie having the fresh ammo PN has to have a chance of the title.
 
Me and Outsider were discussing Mac Tottie on another forum. He’ll remember that I have long believed that the horse is bred to stay and stay. In fact, I reckoned that this race was tailor – made.

Well, Outsider called it right by saying that MT would head for the Topham instead. I must say I was well disappointed they didn’t have a shot at this race.

There are a couple of horses that tie in with Mac Tottie form and they are One More Fleurie and Jersey Bean. The latter ran a decent race (needed the run) first time up at Cheltneham behind Definite Plan in a jet-fast time (Gd) and his second and latest running was a victory over 3m 5f (again a really fast – run affair).

On a line through Mac Tottie, however, One More Fleurie has a nice few pounds in hand over Jersey Bean. Having written that, this is a 4m contest and staying power must be the answer. I think both are contenders but which will go the distance?

On breeding JB’s sire, Court Cave, isn’t best known for extreme stayers, while OMF’s is an unknown to me.

I think the pace on Saturday will be generous, with One More Fleurie, Via Dolorosa, Court Master, Chirico Vallis, Ashtown Lad and Jersey Bean all having won from the front before. If the pace is strong, Ayr is not a great track to be held up at the back; on the pace or tracking is where you want to be and there can be scrimmaging, especially at the start and off the bend into the straight final time.

The Wolf seems to be a hold-up horse and might not be best served here and the same might be said of the youthful Kitty’s Light.

I suppose we always expect an Irish winner, don’t we and of Fahy’s pair, the going must be too lively for Stormy Judge, surely so I’d give a squeak to his other one, History Of fashion, well fancied in the Midlands Nash before unseating.

So far it looks like I’ll be following my Mac Tottie hunch and back both Jersey Bean and One More Fleurie.

JB has run in decent races in cracking times not least his last on g/sft over 3m 5f.

As for One More Fleurie, I like to see ones that win at a track the year before, are lightly raced then sent back to the well. It looks like he has been saved for this. It wouldn’t surprise to see him improve for the extreme test. Would ideally like good ground, mind.
 
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I think it was the Eider where HISTORY OF FASHION was fancied and u/r.6/1 won by win my wings.
I think HoF will be better than stormy judge.
You Yorick and Desert Orchid are sweet on this ONE MORE FLEURIE so who am I to argue.when I looked at all the trends he was one of the first I crossed out.lol.
This is a true hcap with 11.12 topweight and bottomweight at 10st. So the 10/11 rated 134 or higher mightnt be so important.
I think WIN MY WINGS with Mr R.James (7) looks the likely winner to me.
I've also done el paso wood again and theres one for you Yorick PRIME VENTURE 50/1 remember when we backed it at 20s in that veterans race.could well run on into a place.bet365 7 places.
 
Joke of the century tomorrow....I can remember Persian War in his latter years giving the winner Coral Diver a run for his money
Sea Pgeon Birds Nest Night Nurse Comedy of Errors Granville Again Alderbrook Shadow Leader and many other class acts running in it.

Now we got a pile of shite and they still have the balls to call it The Scottish Champion Hurdle:mad:


However the Scotish Grand National hasn't changed much other than the fact Tiger Roll 171 at his best would have been given 14 stone to carry in tomorrows race

Dread to think what it will be like in 10 years time if it even exists
 
Tanlic said:
Joke of the century tomorrow....I can remember Persian War in his latter years giving the winner Coral Diver a run for his money
Sea Pgeon Birds Nest Night Nurse Comedy of Errors Granville Again Alderbrook Shadow Leader and many other class acts running in it.

Now we got a pile of shite and they still have the balls to call it The Scottish Champion Hurdle:mad:


However the Scotish Grand National hasn't changed much other than the fact Tiger Roll 171 at his best would have been given 14 stone to carry in tomorrows race

Dread to think what it will be like in 10 years time if it even exists
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Top animals aren't going to run for £35K, when they can wait a week or so and go in the Aintree Hurdle for about fives times the prize-money.
 
Then Ayr should apply to change the date to earlier in the year.....nuts competing with Chelteham and Aintree.


No real fancy for the National.could study it for hours and still end up losing so 5ew on The Ferry Master and History of Fashion because of the names remind me of Ferryboat and Height O'Fashion who Arkle beat:)
 
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I'm pretty sure the SCH was worth £100k a couple of years ago. I was a wee bit surprised it was so low this year. I'll need to check in case I'm just imagining things!

Edit - yes, £60k to the winner (so at least £100k) pre-pandemic.
 
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£122,442.50 to the winner in 2018 now it's worth £84,405 that's a massive drop in 4 years

The Scottish Champion Hurdle winner in 2018 £59,797.50 now it's worth £34,170.

Add that to the fact it's too close to Aintree and Cheltenham and you get a big pot of ****
 
The going is on the good side of g/sft.

Dan Skelton is flying at present and a dark horse who's plenty short enough considering is Ashtown Lad. Whether he has the stamina is a guess but his OR is only 5Lbs more than his last win which was described as 'comfortable'. The trainer's comment after the win:

Ashtown Lad jumped lovely, the more jumps there are and the further he can go the better. You can see why I waited until he was seven to go chasing, he needed a lot of time to get it all together. Marathon trips will be perfect for him next year - Dan Skelton, trainer.

At his current price, 10/1, he looks really well fancied so I'll add him to my other two and that will be the race for me.


Good luck
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken Cool Mix at 40/1.
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Into 10/1 tops. I suspect either Paul Kealy will be doubling down on him in the RP with the copy being released about now or maybe even Segal will be tipping it. I really can't see the latter (it would go against the principle of the column to top a 10/1 shot when it was four times that at the start of the week). Maybe someone else of influence is putting it up.

Time to lay off the win portion to no risk, I reckon, and leave me with 8/1 the five places...
 
What a nice touch it was by Pat Fahy to alert the betting public on Sunday that Stormy Judge was not only an intended runner but that he would come on for the last run and had been plotted for this race for sometime.

It'd be good to see English trainers doing stuff like this now and then...

I wonder how much of the 20/1 those bookies laid!

If he goes in anyone who took double figure prices surely has Pat to thank. :)
 
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Marb said:
What a nice touch it was by Pat Fahy to alert the betting public on Sunday that Stormy Judge was not only an intended runner but that he would come on for the last run and had been plotted for this race for sometime.

It'd be good to see English trainers doing stuff like this now and then...

I wonder how much of the 20/1 those bookies laid!

If he goes in anyone who took double figure prices surely has Pat to thank. :)
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Dont forget hes got another in it.which was 2nd fav for the Eider but unseated early.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Into 10/1 tops. I suspect either Paul Kealy will be doubling down on him in the RP with the copy being released about now or maybe even Segal will be tipping it. I really can't see the latter (it would go against the principle of the column to top a 10/1 shot when it was four times that at the start of the week). Maybe someone else of influence is putting it up.

Time to lay off the win portion to no risk, I reckon, and leave me with 8/1 the five places...
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You have a good price there D. And good luck.must have a chance especially with a 7lb claimer.
 
Yes and good luck with El Paso Wood mate.

I don't think Stormy is a steering job by any means but definitely fair play to his trainer for what he said last Sunday when a lot of us were guessing who would actually run in the race.

Good luck all it could turn out to be a very exciting race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Into 10/1 tops. I suspect either Paul Kealy will be doubling down on him in the RP with the copy being released about now or maybe even Segal will be tipping it. I really can't see the latter (it would go against the principle of the column to top a 10/1 shot when it was four times that at the start of the week). Maybe someone else of influence is putting it up.

Time to lay off the win portion to no risk, I reckon, and leave me with 8/1 the five places...
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In profit already.

Nicely done :)
 
Marb said:
Yes and good luck with El Paso Wood mate.

I don't think Stormy is a steering job by any means but definitely fair play to his trainer for what he said last Sunday when a lot of us were guessing who would actually run in the race.

Good luck all it could turn out to be a very exciting race.
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I love the race.

Looking at his form, it must surely point to a sft/Hvy preference for Stormy Judge.. Yet he brings him over to race on G/sft. It makes you think they have no ground qualms.

That's what I love about these spectacle races: you just never know.

Exciting indeed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Copied from the Longshot thread:

I've now done my figures for the Scottish National and decided my main bet in the race will be the longshot One More Fleurie 50/1.

On the surface of it, its form figures this season aren't promising (8P0) but the horse was an improving novice this time last season and won the big novice handicap at this meeting.

His three runs this season have been in races worth a combined £269k to the winner and he was only 12/1 for the first of them. I'm prepared to ignore the fact that he has disappointed in those three runs on the basis that this has been the aim since winning at the meeting last year when he jumped notably well in the lead, an attribute that will stand him in good stead for Saturday.

Knowing my luck, though, my trust that this is the target will prove misplaced and he won't even run...
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I think I'm right in saying Segal has put this one up (not his main fancy) for the race, which has brought a shift in the market. Now generally down to 14/1 (16s in a few places, 18s still there in one place, 12s in a few) so I also need to think about laying off the win portion of this one.

I'm going to have to have to deposit a hefty sum into the Betfair account to accommodate the possible takeouts between this one, Cool Mix and maybe Voix Du Reve in the hurdle but if one wins I'll be quids in.
 
Looks pretty tight to me:

..3:35 Ayr
No.NameRating
21The Ferry Master (IRE)42.00
8Ashtown Lad (IRE)41.00
19Court Master (IRE)41.00
6Jersey Bean (IRE)40.00
20Ask A Honey Bee (IRE)40.00
3Kittys Light39.00

<tbody>
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Desert Orchid said:
I think I'm right in saying Segal has put this one up (not his main fancy) for the race, which has brought a shift in the market. Now generally down to 14/1 (16s in a few places, 18s still there in one place, 12s in a few) so I also need to think about laying off the win portion of this one.

I'm going to have to have to deposit a hefty sum into the Betfair account to accommodate the possible takeouts between this one, Cool Mix and maybe Voix Du Reve in the hurdle but if one wins I'll be quids in.
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Jesus Christ just hold the bet.
 
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