Scottish Grand National

Slim said:
Jesus Christ just hold the bet.
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Most of the time I would but if I can get around 30/1 (Cool Mix) and 35/1 OMF to no risk on the win portions, I think it makes sense to take it rather than allow the bet to ride, in which case it becomes a gamble again. The place portions remain gambles but good ones, at 8/1 and 10/1 with very decent prospects of returns for being in the first five for horses currently around 10/1 and 16/1 to win.

I can't believe a SHROOD like yourself wouldn't do the same.
 
If you have backed a horse at 4-times its market price, you give away too-much of your hard-earned edge, laying-off the win portion of the bet, imo DO.

I’m not saying yours is not a legit strategy - you clearly like to work your way into a winning position no matter what with these bets - but it’s not an approach I would adopt myself.

It’s a little like with your Edwardstone Arkle bet, where I said I would let the dice roll at 10/1, but I think you laid-off at around 3/1 for a freeroll. In that scenario, I’d have let the bet run at 10’s, as the reward of landing the higher odds, would have been meant more to me than securing a smaller profit.

Each to their own though.
 
Yes, GH. It's exactly like the Edwardstone scenario and one I'd choose to repeat nine times out of ten.

As you say, each to their own. I'm much more at ease taking that opportunity than letting it roll. Letting it roll is too much like gambling, for me.

A kind of Hippocratic approach, maybe.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, GH. It's exactly like the Edwardstone scenario and one I'd choose to repeat nine times out of ten.

As you say, each to their own. I'm much more at ease taking that opportunity than letting it roll. Letting it roll is too much like gambling, for me.

A kind of Hippocratic approach, maybe.
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I think it depends on how you’re betting. If your are betting to find the winner, then I’d leave it on. If you are betting to make an x% return on your investment then I’d lay-off. As both say, each to their own.
 
yorick said:
I love the race.

Looking at his form, it must surely point to a sft/Hvy preference for Stormy Judge.. Yet he brings him over to race on G/sft. It makes you think they have no ground qualms.

That's what I love about these spectacle races: you just never know.

Exciting indeed.
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Yes backers can live in hope he may handle the ground or even improve a bit on it.

I am sure 90 percent of horses with his profile would indeed need soft or heavy but this fella seems like one of the ten percent who might turn out to be able to act on better going.

Based on trainer comments I am hopeful.

Finally, I just want to say I am in favour of this race being run a week before Aintree.

I think it sets it up and warms us all up for the National next week quite nicely.

This is one initiative I don't think needs changing.
 
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I’ve had a little each way on Major Dundee, Ask a Honey Bee and The Ferry Master....ones to avoid then! :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Most of the time I would but if I can get around 30/1 (Cool Mix) and 35/1 OMF to no risk on the win portions, I think it makes sense to take it rather than allow the bet to ride, in which case it becomes a gamble again. The place portions remain gambles but good ones, at 8/1 and 10/1 with very decent prospects of returns for being in the first five for horses currently around 10/1 and 16/1 to win.

I can't believe a SHROOD like yourself wouldn't do the same.
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Having to put a lump into Betfair to take short odds that your pick will lose seems completely pointless. If you are paying 5% commission then you are literally setting fire to money in the long run.
 
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On a race like this you have the opportunity to bet e/w 7 places around your book. I'm all for agressive hedging by trying to find the current edge in the market.
 
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Slim said:
On a race like this you have the opportunity to bet e/w 7 places around your book. I'm all for agressive hedging by trying to find the current edge in the market.
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Yes, that’s where Alex Bird always made a lot of money on the Grand National in days when you could rule out a high proportion of the field because they wouldn’t get round. Play the rest in the market.
 
I'm looking forward to this.

I have a feeling it's going to be harem-scarem out there with loads of pace. Manic. Lots of errors and scrimmaging. Just off the pace, midfield with an inside berth might be the place to be.

Stormy Judge looks ominously like a plot, now, doesn't he?

Can't wait.

Good luck everyone. :)
 
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Slim said:
Having to put a lump into Betfair to take short odds that your pick will lose seems completely pointless. If you are paying 5% commission then you are literally setting fire to money in the long run.
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It only happens a few times a year and if there's a no-lose situation the small percentage (2%, I think) is worth the expense of having the facility available.
 
Fvck me. I'm having to turn the sound down for that awful rendition of FOS.

It's a crap song at the best of times.
 
That was slightly more interesting than the NHC. I just don't understand the appeal of these excessive boat races.
 
Really didn’t look good for Jersey Bean there.

Christian Williams is a pretty good trainer IMO.
 
The Grand National is interesting because of the fences, even modified. The Welsh version because of the attritional slog but 4 miles on good ground around a hum drum course. No thanks.
 
It's always a good race and the form is always good.

I like it all the more because it's often run on decent ground for a change.

It doesn't throw up dodgy results the way it once did.
 
Outsider said:
I think it was the Eider where HISTORY OF FASHION was fancied and u/r.6/1 won by win my wings.
I think HoF will be better than stormy judge.
You Yorick and Desert Orchid are sweet on this ONE MORE FLEURIE so who am I to argue.when I looked at all the trends he was one of the first I crossed out.lol.
This is a true hcap with 11.12 topweight and bottomweight at 10st. So the 10/11 rated 134 or higher mightnt be so important.
I think WIN MY WINGS with Mr R.James (7) looks the likely winner to me.
I've also done el paso wood again and theres one for you Yorick PRIME VENTURE 50/1 remember when we backed it at 20s in that veterans race.could well run on into a place.bet365 7 places.
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Well I was right but although I backed it I changed my mind and had a good bet on Kittys to win.still a small profit on the race.
 
Turns out the win lay on Cool Mix was matched but the one on OMF wasn't. I could have done with that being the other way round.
 
I'm going to ask the question probably nobody else will ask:

Are Christian Williams's horses juiced up in some way? They are finishing these marathon races incredibly strongly.

For the best part of a season I had Cap Du Nord down as a weak finisher at 3m. Last time he was as strong at the line as at anywhere in the race.
 
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