Scottish Grand National

Desert Orchid said:
I'm going to ask the question probably nobody else will ask:

Are Christian Williams's horses juiced up in some way? They are finishing these marathon races incredibly strongly.

For the best part of a season I had Cap Du Nord down as a weak finisher at 3m. Last time he was as strong at the line as at anywhere in the race.
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Cap du Nord was very well hcapped. But there are a few horses that win by a fairway that dont make sense.a couple that spring to mind is charm street lad and the jam man.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm going to ask the question probably nobody else will ask:

Are Christian Williams's horses juiced up in some way? They are finishing these marathon races incredibly strongly.
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Highly unlikely. In this day and age you would have to be pretty advanced scientifically to get past the doping unit.

I think he just gets his horses very, very fit and builds stamina. He trains right over on the Welsh coast and puts a lot of work into them on the beach and through the water.
 
He's just placing them very well. He's been telling anyone that would listen he'd win the race. Most of us just bet the wrong one.
 
I missed the build-up to the race and only caught the post-race interview. He did seem very sure that he was going to win the race with one of them.

As I said beforehand, I was very impressed with the winner at Newcastle and the engagement of Rob James claiming 7lbs to offset the 8lbs rise was a pretty compelling reason for using the mare to cover all bets but she was even more impressive today.

She was off 140 today and KL off 143. I can see both being trained with the 2023 Grand National in mind and getting in off around 146/147. KL will still only be seven and maybe a wee bit on the small side (didn't stop Ben Nevis) but WMW will be 10 and bang in her prime for the race.

Exciting times for all connected with both, especially the mare.
 
I stuck the winner and second in a combi forecast with Stormy.....I also did another with Major Dundee...just cannot seem to get it quite right.:mad: (It paid a little but it would have been better if I got the combination completely right!)
 
Just had a quick look at the RP results section for the race.

While the winner was undoubtedly impressive, this race comment makes me wonder if the compiler backed the winner:

Travelled strongly, towards rear of midfield, steady headway from 16th, tracked leaders 5 out, led just before 4 out, went clear going easily after 3 out, canter
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I think that's a bit OTT and disrespectful to the rest of the field. It's not as though the jockey was still pulling hard all the way up the straight. He only eased off in the last 50 yards.

I wonder, too, how the handicapper will interpret the jockey's claim. On the bare form, a 10lb rise is probably in order but that 7lb claim is probably worth 12 lengths so such a rise might be harsh if the mare is ridden by a non-claimer next time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just had a quick look at the RP results section for the race.

While the winner was undoubtedly impressive, this race comment makes me wonder if the compiler backed the winner:



I think that's a bit OTT and disrespectful to the rest of the field. It's not as though the jockey was still pulling hard all the way up the straight. He only eased off in the last 50 yards.

I wonder, too, how the handicapper will interpret the jockey's claim. On the bare form, a 10lb rise is probably in order but that 7lb claim is probably worth 12 lengths so such a rise might be harsh if the mare is ridden by a non-claimer next time.
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Go up to 150 which is like a 17lb rise.run him a couple of times get 4lb off and head to the national.
 
Slim said:
The jockey was looking around before two out.
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Yes but that doesn't mean it was "cantering". It's okay for punters in bookies and pubs and forums to claim it won in in a canter but in an official post-race comment I think the evidence has to be more compelling.

The horse was nudged along to hit the front and ridden to an extent to put the race to bed before being eased off but "canter" is just OTT for me (and I backed her).
 
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Racing tv.

Held up towards rear,headway 16th,chased leaders19th,travelled strongly to lead 4 out,cruised clear before 2 out,won hard held.
 
Interest CW talking about their preparation. Gives them plenty of jumping and then some to strengthen up and doesn’t give them any speed work at all. Pretty unique way of training which seems to be working well.
 
Outsider said:
Racing tv.

Held up towards rear,headway 16th,chased leaders19th,travelled strongly to lead 4 out,cruised clear before 2 out,won hard held.
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I've watched the race twice and the final half-mile another twice. I'll need to watch again. That comment strikes me as equally exaggerated as the RP one.
 
I've re-watched the race DO, and he won it as easy as he liked, in the manner of a ridiculously well handicapped horse.
 
Yes, I'm not arguing that it didn't win easily; just that 'canter' and 'hard held' are comments that should be reserved for factual reflection of events.

We often see races won seemingly easily in fast times but when the winner reappears and loses the first excuse is that the race came too soon. (It was a fast time the other day.)

I had said before the race that I was very impressed by the winner at Newcastle but she looked all out to some.

Still, she looked all over a strong contender for Aintree 2023; like another half-mile will be right up her street.
 
I'll be interested in the rating you come to for Eclair Surf when you do it Maurice. Mine surprised me, and we tend to be pretty close.
 
From memory, I think I do have a big figure for it but, as I say, I only rated the field down to 144 to save myself some time!
 
We'll find out whether he does or it's likely he gets in today, but I suspect he just about squeezes in on my expectation of what is likely to defect for various reasons.

If he does make the cut I'll be very surprised if what you rate him at doesn't catapult him to the top of your list with a bit of daylight.
 
Win My Wings up 14lbs to 154. Kitty's Light only up 2lbs.

If they were to meet again in, say, the Whitbread, KL would be 12lbs better off for 7 lengths (at 4m).

Would anyone back him to reverse the form on those terms?

(I'd be tempted.)
 
Grasshopper said:
I don't see how KL reverses the form, tbh DO........WMW could have gone round again, imo.
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I think it will depend on whether Rob James takes the ride again. If he's as much value for his claim as generally thought then a non-claimer effectively makes it 17 lbs for 7 lengths.

Then what if KL doesn't make any mistakes? He came from further back than ideal last week and wasn't helped by early mistakes. If, next time, it's a smaller field he might not be as far behind either.

Then the odds have to be factored in as to whether it's worth betting either horse.

I'm finding it a fascinating prospect but the trainer might well just keep them apart now, at least until the 2023 National!
 
I think you should bank on Kittys Light to make mistakes. Might not stop him from winning a good handicap off this mark, maybe next years National.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think it will depend on whether Rob James takes the ride again. If he's as much value for his claim as generally thought then a non-claimer effectively makes it 17 lbs for 7 lengths.

Then what if KL doesn't make any mistakes? He came from further back than ideal last week and wasn't helped by early mistakes. If, next time, it's a smaller field he might not be as far behind either.

Then the odds have to be factored in as to whether it's worth betting either horse.

I'm finding it a fascinating prospect but the trainer might well just keep them apart now, at least until the 2023 National!
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Price is everything, of course, but just based on likelihood of winning, I'd likely side with WMW nine times out of ten.

"Canter" I agree was a bit strong, but he was value for more than a winning-distance of 7L.....much more, in fact - probably double that, imo.
 
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