Scottish Independence.....

I've heard quite a few now who've admitted to me at least that they've started telling people publicly that they intend voting yes, but actually intend to vote no. The secret ballot has its merits, but during the last 2 weeks in particular its become quite intimidating in places I'm given to understand

Mind you, if you think this has been an exercise, wait until we get an in/ out referendum for Europe

You know we'll push our chests out and act the 'big I am' but as soon the US tell us to stay put as their trojan horse, and as soon as businesses start relocating and the word Frankfurt appears, and as soon as companies get marked down and sterling gets clobbered etc we'll soon do the same, at least the Scots have engaged in much better show of brinkmanship in order to extract concessions.

Cameron blinked I reckon. Won't it be funny if the final vote is something like 33/66 which is where it was at the outset. Salmond then has a piece paper with 3 signatories on it which he waves under their noses and says I expect you to honour this
 
Maruco said:
I still haven't seen a sane, rational argument anywhere that any educated Scot could be convinced by to vote for independence.

The economic argument has more holes in it than swiss cheese, and apart from a few transparent bribes from the SNP, there is simply no advantage to it.

Most Scots I know are fiercely nationalistic but are bright enough to know that being nationalistic has nothing to do with a breakaway from the United Kingdom.

If the unlikely scenario happened that the Yes's get it at the polls, shame on Scotland is all I can say.
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I don't know about shame on Scotland but I think it would be a shame for Scotland.

However, there are plenty of intelligent people who buy into the idea of independence. As I said before, I could buy into the idea myself in the right circumstances.

However, I only know personally one person voting yes but she was always quite vociferous politically anyway. What I don't get is that she is (or was when I knew her better when we were students) quite far left so I can only assume she just wants to be free of the tories.

The Scottish parliament has had plenty of good moments.

Free prescriptions have been a big boon for me personally since I need anything between four and six different medications daily before one-off afflictions kick in.

Free bus travel for the over 60s is great. Older people can get out and about even if the bus service isn't brilliant.

I'm even coming round to the idea of a minimum charge on alcohol.

But they're still the tartan tories.
 
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Will Andy Murray's coming out in favour of YES in an overnight tweet sway a good number of undecideds?
 
Warbler said:
I've heard quite a few now who've admitted to me at least that they've started telling people publicly that they intend voting yes, but actually intend to vote no. The secret ballot has its merits, but during the last 2 weeks in particular its become quite intimidating in places I'm given to understand

Mind you, if you think this has been an exercise, wait until we get an in/ out referendum for Europe

You know we'll push our chests out and act the 'big I am' but as soon the US tell us to stay put as their trojan horse, and as soon as businesses start relocating and the word Frankfurt appears, and as soon as companies get marked down and sterling gets clobbered etc we'll soon do the same, at least the Scots have engaged in much better show of brinkmanship in order to extract concessions.

Cameron blinked I reckon. Won't it be funny if the final vote is something like 33/66 which is where it was at the outset. Salmond then has a piece paper with 3 signatories on it which he waves under their noses and says I expect you to honour this
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Businesses won't relocate because of the eu. Opposite might even happen

Leaving the eu will not affect the trade at all. We are their biggest market. It would be on same terms because it has to be

Companies credit ratings won't change a jot. Membership of eu has nothing to do with that

Some will say, why doesnt that apply to Scotland? Well it's all to do with the currency and massive uncertainty over economic plans and viability. The uk does not have those problems
 
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No, it doesn't 'have to be'. Why are your posts so full of nonsense? Scotland and England also have an extremely interdependent relationship yet I don't hear you seen 'we HAVE to keep a currency union' for economic reasons - you are so inconsistent.

You seem to think the EU needs Britain - it doesn't. If transaction costs became a factor because UK left the EU, you would soon see a lot of the City relocate to Zug, and Britain would soon be in tatters.

To be brutally honest, I find it disturbing to see you posting as normal after threatening to glass one forum member, give Bar and I a 'fist in the face' and so on.
 
Clueless

Does it really need pointing out that Ruk doesnt NEED a currency union with scotland but scotland certainly is demanding one with ruk?

Zug? City would relocate there if UK left the eu? Apart from the fact that it is a laughable suggestion on every level...

Zug is in Switzerland. Switzerland isnt in the EU

too funny
 
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Desert Orchid said:
An increasingly disturbing trend as voting day approaches is the mob-gangster tactics of the Yes campaign.

Any time a no campaigner takes to the streets, they are surrounded by highly vocal Yes people who try to shout them down and thrust their Yes placards in front of the No ones. Only last week or so Jim Murphy was assaulted while trying to make the case for No.

It's one step shy of the scenes in Mr Smith Goes To Washington in which the gangsters' response gradually escalates to violence in their attempts to silence the majority.
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I've never been Archie 'Woof' McPherson's biggest fan but his has been very reasoned opinion on the odd occasion he's offered it on telly in the last few weeks (but I didn't know he was an active No campaigner).

It looks like he is thinking along similar lines to me:

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-dont-salmonds-loudmouths-4278569
 
icebreaker said:
Will Andy Murray's coming out in favour of YES in an overnight tweet sway a good number of undecideds?
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No

Celebrity endorsements might lend a camapign a certain degree of energy and glamour, but that's only when they're all featured together generating a feel good factor over a sustained period. Murray has left it too late to have any impact, and I doubt that many Scots are going to be swayed by a tennis player who spends most of his year in Florida in the same way that I doubt a well known supporter like Sean Connery actually drives SNP supporters even if every one knows who he supports. Most Scots you'll speak to about 007 tend to adopt a very cynical and snearing view of his own non domiciled patriotism
 
clivex said:
Clueless

Does it really need pointing out that Ruk doesnt NEED a currency union with scotland but scotland certainly is demanding one with ruk?

Zug? City would relocate there if UK left the eu? Apart from the fact that it is a laughable suggestion on every level...

Zug is in Switzerland. Switzerland isnt in the EU

too funny
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Switzerland isn't in the EU? Really? Since when?

Does it need pointing out that the EU doesn't need Britain?

Clive, like quite often, you are uninformed. You see England as this amazing power, that the EU would let itself be dictated to by. I'm afraid that's not the case. If England was outside the EU, the risk of many, many financial institutions relocating to Swissland is real, and for someone who tries to pretend he is informed, I'm surprised you haven't seen this referred to quite often.

No comment on your psychotic behaviour the other day? You do realise it happened, don't you?
 
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Warbler said:
No

Celebrity endorsements might lend a camapign a certain degree of energy and glamour, but that's only when they're all featured together generating a feel good factor over a sustained period. Murray has left it too late to have any impact, and I doubt that many Scots are going to be swayed by a tennis player who spends most of his year in Florida in the same way that I doubt a well known supporter like Sean Connery actually drives SNP supporters even if every one knows who he supports. Most Scots you'll speak to about 007 tend to adopt a very cynical and snearing view of his own non domiciled patriotism
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You're very good at these sweeping, unsubstantiated, statements, Warbler.

Whilst Connery may be a non-domicile, he has run a Scottish charity at arms-legth for about 30-years....one which focuses on creating opportunities for kids from desperately-poor backgrounds......which affords him plenty of respect up here - regardless of his political stance on Independence.
 
Hamm said:
Switzerland isn't in the EU? Really? Since when?

Does it need pointing out that the EU doesn't need Britain?

Clive, like quite often, you are uninformed. You see England as this amazing power, that the EU would let itself be dictated to by. I'm afraid that's not the case. If England was outside the EU, the risk of many, many financial institutions relocating to Swissland is real, and for someone who tries to pretend he is informed, I'm surprised you haven't seen this referred to quite often.

No comment on your psychotic behaviour the other day? You do realise it happened, don't you?
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You really are an absolute idiot. Even without checking, most people would know full well that Switzerland is NOT in the EU.

If think that any bank CEO that relocates his HQ to Switzerland to be within the EU .......might just get the boot.


Dont waste my time and i'm ignoring the baiting
 
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Looks like it is all over. Odds have hardened to 1/6 across the board with some going shorter than that
 
its been all over from day one.....the rest of it has been for the media to have something to talk about endlessly

i've never seen such a load of media fuss about what will be a forgone conclusion..staggering really that people actually believed it were going to go any other way
 
clivex said:
You really are an absolute idiot. Even without checking, most people would know full well that Switzerland is NOT in the EU.

If think that any bank CEO that relocates his HQ to Switzerland to be within the EU .......might just get the boot.


Dont waste my time and i'm ignoring the baiting
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Obviously psychotic folk don't get sarcasm... try to keep up.

I lived in Switzerland, btw - not that should matter - a 10 year old would know full well it's not in the EU.
 
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EC1 said:
its been all over from day one.....the rest of it has been for the media to have something to talk about endlessly

i've never seen such a load of media fuss about what will be a forgone conclusion..staggering really that people actually believed it were going to go any other way
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To be fair, EC1, it was the polls that drove the media agenda. I don't imagine there would have been anywhere near the fuss (although there should arguably have been plenty of fuss as it is nevertheless a big decision) if the repeatedly reinforced the 'no contest' message.

I'm glad it went the way it did as the silent majority - the No voters - might not have bothered to get off their arses to get to the polling stations.

A couple of other things lately annoyed me.

A few youngish (mid-20s?) guys from the poorest estates interviewed on TV:

"Aw weww, ah huvnae really redd much aboot i', know? Mibbe a should try an read up a bit aboot i' afore Hursday...'

And my daughter reported some of her students as saying:

"Haw heh... see ris Hursday, we're gawna gie ray English a doin' in ris vote..."

(I'm told the staff in the school are under strict instructions not to discuss the referendum with pupils and pupils are under strict instructions not to ask staff who they're voting for or who they should vote for, but I don't know to what extent it has been included in lessons as it would be very difficult for staff to maintain genuine impartiality. Again, I don't know if the instruction is authority wide or just the HT's decision.)
 
Could this be the most absurd question ever done?

They are asking if people over there waiting to leave the country, but not telling in what conditions.


It is like asking You if You want to buy this car,
But they are not telling at what price?
 
sunybay said:
It is like asking You if You want to buy this car,
But they are not telling at what price?
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A slight slant on that being that its like telling them its the 20th best Ferrari in the world and everyone can see that its Morris Marina.

Scotland ain't Saudi Arabia. To listen to Salmond you'd think the place was awash in oil. It ain't. Whenever he comes up against the 'howya gonna pay for it' he keeps saying oil to the point where you sense he can't remember how many times he's promised oil revenues now for what.
 
Is there a scenario where the 'No' voters get rid of David Cameron?

Let's say that the 'yes' vote recorded by opinion polls was wrong, and built up largely out of intimidation. For sake of argument the final vote is 62/38 (about 5% up for yes on where they started the campaign)

Well Cameron will have blinked on the back of one opinion poll taken 2 weeks ago and largely adopted devo max plus other promises he's made

How many Tory backbenchers are going to want him playing hard ball when renegotiating Lisbon as he's promised to do

I'm sure it'll only be a short matter of time before the Tories put the pieces together and realsie that Salmond was holding a low pair and Cameron folded a flush draw. All depends on the Yes vote collapsing though. We'll know soon enough
 
Warbler said:
Is there a scenario where the 'No' voters get rid of David Cameron?

Let's say that the 'yes' vote recorded by opinion polls was wrong, and built up largely out of intimidation. For sake of argument the final vote is 62/38 (about 5% up for yes on where they started the campaign)

Well Cameron will have blinked on the back of one opinion poll taken 2 weeks ago and largely adopted devo max plus other promises he's made

How many Tory backbenchers are going to want him playing hard ball when renegotiating Lisbon as he's promised to do

I'm sure it'll only be a short matter of time before the Tories put the pieces together and realsie that Salmond was holding a low pair and Cameron folded a flush draw. All depends on the Yes vote collapsing though. We'll know soon enough[/QUOTe

Or is Cameron thinking if they vote yes then another labour government is light years away???
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tiggers1972 said:
Or is Cameron thinking if they vote yes then another labour government is light years away???
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You're going to have to explain the logic that's led you to this conclusion as it looks to be well off the mark. I think you're crediting Cameron for a strategic move which his actions simply don't support. In fact, I can't see one scrap of evidence that Cameron has done anything to promote 'Yes'.

If he wanted Scotland to vote yes, he's had plenty of options available to not only encourage them to do so, but to guarantee it.

Ultimately if you think Cameron is trying to work the electoral arithematic, and you're crediting him with an astute strategic brain, then you're going to have to explain why he panicked on the strength of a single opinion poll, and within a few days had pledged devo max and about £1000 per household that he'd previously rejected (dependent on who you believe)? That's not the behaviour of a man who is tacitly encouraging yes, nor is it the calm and calculated behaviour of a man with his hand on the tiller.

You might choose to recall that Cameron had a pledge in the coalition agreement to reform the electoral boundaries of the UK which would have netted him about 25 more seats. In order to do this though, the Liberals made their support conditional on reforming the antiquated House of Lords. The Tories didn't keep their side of the bargain, and so the Liberals withdrew their support for the boundary changes.

The next election will be fought on the old boundaries which favour Labour. Cameron made what you might call in a principled decision (though heaven knows what he saw in the House of Lords) but ultimately he made a bad tactical decision. He's done the same now with Scotland and there will no shortage of his own backbenchers (English) who are going to be cheesed off with the concessions that he's made to Scotland when the dust settles and they have time to evaluate who the winners and losers are.

You might recall that about 3 years ago in a Q&A session in California, Salmond let slip that devo max was perhaps the best outcome for Scotland. Why wouldn't it be. He gets just about all trappings of independence, whilst still falling under the UK umbrella should he be struck by a crisis. Salmond wanted Devo Max on the ballot form as a third option. Cameron denied him this and called his bluff (similar tactic used on the AV referendum). In the end Cameron blinked at the first sign of an opinion poll that went the other way and gave Salmond what amounts to Devo Max. Furthermore he's had to suffer the indignity of Gordon Brown penning it, and delivering it. Brown's profile has noticeably risen in the last week, and with it, the No vote stablised

Cameron is not only going to have explain all this to his MP's, he's also got to convince them now that he's the hard man, the canny operator, and the astute tactician who can deliver a renegotiation of the Lisbon treaty. He's damaged goods as of tonight (or will be if the Yes vote collapses). He'll have been seen to have been comprehensively out manouevred by Alex Salmond and the man who blinked at an opinion poll

If it its a narrow victory, it's difficult to see how his own standing will have been enhanced. Ultimately he'll have had to rely on Gordon Brown to save him. He denied Salmond Devo Max two years, and then conceded it to him 2 weeks ago
 
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