So You Think - substance or hype ?

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Ardross

Senior Jockey
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I was gobsmacked to read this horse is 1-2 on Betfair for the Prince of Wales's Stakes with Planteur in the field .

He seems to be the most overhyped horse I can remember in a while . Whilst his Australian form is impressive - winning surely the worst g1 race in a while from Campanologist hardly entitles him to such a price .

Another example of the hype is the absurd crap spouted by Chapman on ATR about him being possibly the best miler in the world too - his last run over a mile saw him a well beaten fifth !

Undoubtedly the horse was a great champion in Oz and he has the potential here but surely he is too short for this race ?
 
Lots of substance to his form to suggest people aren't getting carried away with him. But that doesn't mean I'll back him at 1/2.
 
Over-hyped??

He's already won 6 Group 1s, including 2 Cox Plates!!

Officially 2nd ranked older horse in the world, with only Black Caviar above him.

Even if he were never to win another race, which seems highly unlikely, his record is clearly that of a champion.

But as davidjohnson says that doesn't necessarily mean that 2/1 on is particularly good value, anything can always go wrong.
 
Totally agree with the other replies. He's a serious horse, his Australian form is clear to see that he's in the top 5 horses in the world but I wouldn't touch him at 1/2. Especially when an improving Planteur who should be suited by Ascot is turning up against him.

If there are 8 runners it will be a beautiful each-way bet.
 
Alot of it is to do with the rumours coming out of Ballydoyle. Jim McGrath, writing in the Telegraph last week, spoke of "some good judges" indicating that this is possibly the best older horse in Ballydoyle since the dual Arc winning Alleged. That was 1977-78. In recent years, older horses have included High Chapparal, Dylan Thomas, Hawk Wing, Duke of Marmalade and Rip van Winkle so it is high praise indeed. Yes it is hype, but I for one can't wait for the race next week to see if he is the real deal.

For what it's worth, Jim McGrath does seem to have a good inside track with the power brokers in Coolmore which makes his article all the more intriguing.
 
I wouldn't be fully confident he could beat Planteur either, but I don't know that "overhyped" is right. He is clearly one of a handful of the best middle-distance horses in training here this season.
 
Circumspect said:
Alot of it is to do with the rumours coming out of Ballydoyle. Jim McGrath, writing in the Telegraph last week, spoke of "some good judges" indicating that this is possibly the best older horse in Ballydoyle since the dual Arc winning Alleged. That was 1977-78. In recent years, older horses have included High Chapparal, Dylan Thomas, Hawk Wing, Duke of Marmalade and Rip van Winkle so it is high praise indeed. Yes it is hype, but I for one can't wait for the race next week to see if he is the real deal.

For what it's worth, Jim McGrath does seem to have a good inside track with the power brokers in Coolmore which makes his article all the more intriguing.
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While he reminds me a bit of High Chapparal (his sire), I wouldn't say I believe him to be as good as that one yet.
 
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I can't access the RP at work but i'm pretty sure Planteur has never won a Group 1. Admittedly he was running over 12f last season but I have a feeling he's one of those horses that can win and win well at Group 2 level but will only ever pick up a weak Group 1. I'm not convinced he's got the stomach for the battle so I wouldn't be taking SYT on with him.

That's just my view and i suspect others will disagree. Very talented horse but has a bit to prove for me.
 
Aragorn said:
I can't access the RP at work but i'm pretty sure Planteur has never won a Group 1. Admittedly he was running over 12f last season but I have a feeling he's one of those horses that can win and win well at Group 2 level but will only ever pick up a weak Group 1. I'm not convinced he's got the stomach for the battle so I wouldn't be taking SYT on with him.

That's just my view and i suspect others will disagree. Very talented horse but has a bit to prove for me.
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I’m in the same boat, but his last race, in which he beat the excellent Sarafina (Prix Ganay) was undoubtedly a Group 1 (he's also won a couple of Group 2s). It seems to me that Planteur has a lot of quality about him, which is just starting to be fully expressed.
 
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Sorry - Forgot it was the Ganay.

I think they are doing the right thing dropping him to 10f because he seemed to be outstayed/outbattled quite a lot last year.

I won;t be having a bet in the race either way...
 
His Dosage makes him much better suited to 10 furlongs than 12 furlongs – the Ganay is run over a bit more than 10 furlongs, about 10½ furlongs, I seem to recall.
 
Aragorn said:
I think they are doing the right thing dropping him to 10f because he seemed to be outstayed/outbattled quite a lot last year.
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I would have agreed with you last year but he's looked like a different horse in his two starts this year.
 
To be fair that's what i'm basing most of my assessment on.. I may have to revise my opinion and it may just be he doesn't get 12f.

Having Soumillon aboard will help as well. I still wouldn't back him against SYT though. No pacemaker for Ballydoyle in this race so it wouldn't surprise me if they lead or kicked a long way from home on SYT as they won't want to give Planteur a chance to use his turn of foot.
 
Aragorn said:
To be fair that's what i'm basing most of my assessment on.. I may have to revise my opinion and it may just be he doesn't get 12f.
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I think this is closer to the mark... I would expect Planteur to excel at around 10 furlongs this season. 9 to 10½ should suit him very well.
 
No value in the price but I really do hope he's as good or even better than they think he is. I know he's now with Coolmore but I it's great to see such a good overseas horse come over. And it'd be great for HC to have a top class horse here. Very excited for next week.
 
I'm a big fan of So You Think, he looks a feckin monster - but Planteur may be better suited to the track. 4.3 on Betfair now, I reckon he'd be a sound bet at 5.
 
Rewilding here is a very bizarre decision, something like the King George would be much more situable for him.



about the Prince Of Wales, I like what I have seen of Planteur this season but So You think looks a class apart in this field.
 
sunybay said:
Rewilding here is a very bizarre decision, something like the King George would be much more situable for him.
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Yes I was interested to see Rewilding in this too. I too would have thought they would continue to go for 12 furlong races. However, I also don’t believe Rewilding is all about stamina, as some have assumed. He flopped in the St Leger and has a decent turn of foot when he likes… so I’m starting to think that maybe it’s not such a bad idea to drop him back to 10 furlongs after all.
 
His flop in the Leger had little to do with stamina. Strange placement for me. King George is more prestigious and more suitable, and will be against a lesser field I'd expect so seems a strange decision not to go for that off a break. He's a horse that doesn't hold his condition and going KG on the back of a creditable defeat in the PoW doesn't look the wisest I don't think.
 
The KG is looking like a very hot renewal this year - possibly Workforce, SNA and now the Jockey Club winner.

It may the same old lure - that G1 win over 10f - is old Twice Over running next week
 
I have little doubt So You Think is as good as they say he is. I've been in Australia for the last couple of years and he wasn't beating ordinary horses, he was beating Group 1 horses easily. He was only exposed when he was upped to a trip beyone his scope.

Over 8-10f we have nothing in the UK that will come close to beating him, and I firmly expect him to make Planteur and Rewilding look ordinary next week.
 
To me, "hype" when applied to a racehorse denotes something that hasn't really done it yet on the track, a "morning glory" or "pigeon catcher" type. That clearly can't be said of So You Think. However, that which appears now to be emanating from Ballydoyle could fit into the hype category. Didn't we have the same thing last year with Starspangledbanner - something about the fastest furlong they'd ever recorded? It would be nice if the horse was left to speak for himself by his exploits on the racecourse.
 
They're a commercial outfit though Gus... PR, Marketing and Sales are three terms which come to mind...

If I ran their business i'd be doing the same thing. Plus they don't have gallop watchers at Ballydoyle unlike Newmarket so they have to make their own noise.
 
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