J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
Workforce 74.49%
Galileo 75.21%
Sea The Stars 75.63%
Optimum around 73.88%, imo.
Galileo 75.21%
Sea The Stars 75.63%
Optimum around 73.88%, imo.
Speed Figure calculation and usage
- Thread starter EC1
- Start date
EC1
On a break
not got last race yet..prelim speed figures
Epsom 5 June 2010
Going: Firm +36lbs
OHR/SF
82 /53 DANDINO
-- /89 HIGH AWARD
116/87 ANTARA
83 /82 BERTOLIVER
-- /126 WORKFORCE
85 /82 FORTUNI
94 /101 FLIPANDO
Epsom 5 June 2010
Going: Firm +36lbs
OHR/SF
82 /53 DANDINO
-- /89 HIGH AWARD
116/87 ANTARA
83 /82 BERTOLIVER
-- /126 WORKFORCE
85 /82 FORTUNI
94 /101 FLIPANDO
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Harbinger
At the Start
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2004
- Messages
- 11,282
Just out of interest, and I promise I won't ask for any more!, but what are the figures for High Chaparral? Always struck me as a particularly atypical Derby, that.
EC1
On a break
should be around 72%
but my eye hand co ordination not as good as Pru's probably
last race makes Workforce now 126
J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
High Chaparral was 73.78% (surprisingly "normal" under the conditions: my thoughts were like yours)
A few others for interest:
Sea-Bird 74.70%
Nijinsky 74.98%
Troy 74.77%
Shergar 72.41% (he basically ran them into the ground before the straight)
Slip Anchor 73.24%
Shahrastani 74.54%
Nashwan 73.40%
Generous 74.55%
Sinndar 73.27%
1992 was the first year in which the race was (officially) run at 1½m PLUS 10 yards, so comparisons before and after that may be slightly out.
A few others for interest:
Sea-Bird 74.70%
Nijinsky 74.98%
Troy 74.77%
Shergar 72.41% (he basically ran them into the ground before the straight)
Slip Anchor 73.24%
Shahrastani 74.54%
Nashwan 73.40%
Generous 74.55%
Sinndar 73.27%
1992 was the first year in which the race was (officially) run at 1½m PLUS 10 yards, so comparisons before and after that may be slightly out.
EC1
On a break
i got the time for HC's race to the path at 114.8..hence 72%..can't rememebr now though if thats the leader or HC though.
it was soft that year wasn't it?..straight course seemed faster?
J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
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J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
You should always take the time from the sectional to the line and subtract rather than the other way round (assuming sectional and line can be seen readily). There is a significant reaction time - usually 0.3 to 0.5 sec - in getting the stalls opening.
EC1
On a break
yes i know what you mean - i'm annoyed now because i don't know how i got that time..i was sure it was for the winner..can't find the race now either on you tube.
most of the older ones i timed i did them from the path to line as that was all you had of the race.
I got 75.18 for Nijinsky..not far off yours..so am sure i did horses not leaders.
what SF did you give Workforce today?..Flipando's held it down a bit i think
EC1
On a break
looking at Slip Anchors % shows how good Steve Cauthens clock in his head was..just about perfect even pace..what a talent he was.
there is one that puzzles me Pru..North Light's
I got that as 72.4%..if thats right then you would have thought NL would have got caught in the straight..its faster than even pace..maybe there was nothing good enough to take advantage?
there is one that puzzles me Pru..North Light's
I got that as 72.4%..if thats right then you would have thought NL would have got caught in the straight..its faster than even pace..maybe there was nothing good enough to take advantage?
EC1
On a break
that would suggest a monster speed figure for Workforce would be hard to envision...too much time lost to make back up etc?
J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
It just suggests that he could run (a bit) faster. Whether that's faster than a monster timefigure or faster than a sub-monster timefigure seems to depend on your standard times and methods. At the moment I wouldn't want to put a limit on this chap by saying he couldn't run a 130 time in that manner.
EC1
On a break
i wasn't really meaning potentially..just todays speed figure..he has still run a good figure particularly in light of running too slow early on
i think he is pretty special tbh
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EC1
On a break
is it possible do you think that the 12f track is riding slower Pru?
taking 12f in isolation today - Workforce has run 44lb faster than Fortuni..do you think Fortuni's race is true run..using the %
yesterday the 12f cousre seemd a fair bit slower..maybe it still is...but not to that degree...so Flippando wouldn't hold it down then.
it would then make W a 129 as I first thought
taking 12f in isolation today - Workforce has run 44lb faster than Fortuni..do you think Fortuni's race is true run..using the %
yesterday the 12f cousre seemd a fair bit slower..maybe it still is...but not to that degree...so Flippando wouldn't hold it down then.
it would then make W a 129 as I first thought
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J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
Finishing speeds
Dandino 111.91% (leader); 113.47% (winner)
High Award 103.01%; 103.01%
Antara 106.01%; 107.30%
Bertoliver 98.66%; 99.10%
Workforce 104.33%; 108.36%
Fortuni 109.65%; 109.65%
Flipando 98.21%; 102.12%
I don't see the need for splitting the going: I have a big timefigure for the Derby winner without doing so.
Dandino 111.91% (leader); 113.47% (winner)
High Award 103.01%; 103.01%
Antara 106.01%; 107.30%
Bertoliver 98.66%; 99.10%
Workforce 104.33%; 108.36%
Fortuni 109.65%; 109.65%
Flipando 98.21%; 102.12%
I don't see the need for splitting the going: I have a big timefigure for the Derby winner without doing so.
EC1
On a break
i have a decent figure..but i don't add the other 10lb wfa that many will do.
what do you think about adding 15lbs wfa ...which is from a handicapping area ..to speed figures Pru?..when in actual time the 3yo is only 0.35 sec per mile shy of maturity in June
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EC1
On a break
Fortuni's race looks slow early
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J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
If it should apply to form assessments then it should apply to time assessments. They are merely two sides of the same coin.
What you are saying is that it should not apply to form assessments. If so, you would expect there to be very clear evidence that the wfa scale in use is wrong.
Other than in certain areas (the BHA wfa is way out with 2yos), I do not see that evidence. For instance, 3yos beat around 50% of their rivals - sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less - when running against older horses in handicaps from June onwards. That's 50%, not 70%.
Do you have the source evidence for the 0.35 sec/mile figure? I would be interested in any surveys into wfa, as I think it is an area traditionally somewhat neglected by form and time analysts alike.
EC1
On a break
I worked out my averages years ago Pru..i haven't got the data now..but its not that hard to compare 3yo races with older ones..particularly over same c/d.....its somewhile ago when i compiled them.
I didn't say not to use wfa..but to use a time allowance that is more reflective of final time differences...and final time differences are the only thing that matters..not great lumps of poundage adding that a horse cannot achieve in reality
I'll guarantee that if any one adds wfa as per the scale to their speed figures..that most of their highest speed figures will be 2yo+3yo's..simply because they are overinflating them on average by about 10lbs.
EC1
On a break
I'd like to try something to further the discussion on wfa in speed figures..i don't know what the outcome will be either.
DO - can you do me a favour? - can you post the top 5 fastest Derby winners from the last 10 years on your speed figures..without wfa added..just the bare figure.
thanks
DO - can you do me a favour? - can you post the top 5 fastest Derby winners from the last 10 years on your speed figures..without wfa added..just the bare figure.
thanks
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,848
What do you make it, Pru?
I don't think it's so much a case that the scale is wrong; I just think the 2yos that put up the fastest times are more mature than average.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,848
EC1
On a break
thanks DO
the average of the 5 fastest is 110
sorry to set you on again DO..but can you post your last ..lets say 8 King George winning speed figures where a 4yo+ won
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,848
Yes, but it'll need to wait till next weekend. My books are up in the loft and I'm off to bed as I need to be out of the house by about 6.30 to get to work and won't be home till Friday.
Of course, one of the difficulties with Ascot is that they relaid the track a couple of years back and the round course can be vastly different from the straight.
Of course, one of the difficulties with Ascot is that they relaid the track a couple of years back and the round course can be vastly different from the straight.