Speed Figure calculation and usage
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Desert Orchid
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I checked last year's race (I use that form book so it isn't up in the loft) just before I went to bed.
There was only one other race on the round course so any comparison may be tenuous but if the other race matched the form figures (my normal route for calculating going allowances) then Conduit hit a time rating of 126, bang on the money for a G1.
There was only one other race on the round course so any comparison may be tenuous but if the other race matched the form figures (my normal route for calculating going allowances) then Conduit hit a time rating of 126, bang on the money for a G1.
R Hills is God
At the Start
What you have to understand about The Tablets is that they are never wrong.
You could port yourself to another dimension, where there is zero gravity and horses are born fully mature and they would perfrom the job just as well by your criteria.
EC1
On a break
Sri Putra would be a good marker for that meeting DO..a 105 horse carrying the same weight as Conduit...Sri Putra ran 26lbs slower than Conduit...but using your wfa method means you must knock a hole in that 26lbs..to the tune of about 10lbs?...which makes Conduit a 121 speed figure..it can't be any higher because the wfa is stopping it being more than 16 superior
Conduit would be one of the higher speed figures for an older horse as well.
the average speed figures for older winners of G1's in general..removing the obvious slow ones.. is about 118/120..topspeed rarely give much above that to an older horse ..period ..for example..his speed figures seem to reflect yours re the Derby..as in levels set.....unless they have changed how they do them.
so you have a 10lb ...at most...average difference just using the Derby & older G1's in general..from very small samples i might add...i think a true average for the Derby would be nearer 112 than 110....considering that some years its debatable if the allowance should be split between 12f and other races...which pulls down the 12f distance speed figure more often than not.
just from that small sample ...time wfa ...is half what the handicapping wfa scale says it is..because wfa time allowances have no connection with the handicapping scale. Sticking 15 lbs on top of Derby winners speed figures just doesn't add up to me..but its not for me to question people's methods...if thats how do it then fair play
The Coronation Cup versus Derby and Oaks is another 12f comparison worth making..I wonder how that pans out?
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Desert Orchid
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Well I wouldn't use Sri Putra's race for a comparison. It was over the straight mile and if the going on either side of the straight track at Ascot can vary significantly so can the round one. Abnd the straight at Ascot is now notorious forbeing significantly fast erthan the round course.
I used the c&d race for my comparison.
It doesn't mean much to me that topspeed's figures tend to cap at 120 or so. I use a different method of calculation. His and yours tend to tie up but I think we've seen that my standrad times and your class pars can vary quite a bit, even though we somethimes end up with similar conclusions.
It wouldn't surprise me if the five fastest KGs didn't average out at 126. Big fields are unusual and tactical races often ensue. But I reckon if I took the fastest ten G1s for older horses (or all ages) over the last ten years the average would be around 126, possibly even higher if we're looking at the real superstars.
I used the c&d race for my comparison.
It doesn't mean much to me that topspeed's figures tend to cap at 120 or so. I use a different method of calculation. His and yours tend to tie up but I think we've seen that my standrad times and your class pars can vary quite a bit, even though we somethimes end up with similar conclusions.
It wouldn't surprise me if the five fastest KGs didn't average out at 126. Big fields are unusual and tactical races often ensue. But I reckon if I took the fastest ten G1s for older horses (or all ages) over the last ten years the average would be around 126, possibly even higher if we're looking at the real superstars.
Interesting debate this chaps. I have started to use sped figures a lot more to inform my punting lately and used in the right races it can often give an angle I would often have ignored and can be a good way of unearthing better priced winners.
Irish Stamp
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Agree Aragorn - I've started using them and rating everday cards for the past week or so and did a few of the big Saturdays (most notably Guineas weekend and Victoria Cup day) with some pretty profitable results in certain types of races.
Cracking discussion going on here though
Cracking discussion going on here though
Desert Orchid
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2009 Champion Stakes: Twice Over (4yo) time rating 123
Desert Orchid
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Agree Aragorn - I've started using them and rating everday cards for the past week or so and did a few of the big Saturdays (most notably Guineas weekend and Victoria Cup day) with some pretty profitable results in certain types of races.
Cracking discussion going on here though
Hope you got as wired into Harris Tweed (11/2 early) as I did on Saturday then
Desert Orchid
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Time ratings - Ascot 25 July 2009
Race 1 (no rating - I tend not to look at amatueur/ladies races)
Race 2 Nideeb 86 + wfa
Race 3 Lady Of The Desert 97 + wfa
Race 4 Sri Putra 103 + wfa
Race 5 Al Muheer 111 (marker for going allownace on straight course)
Race 6 Conduit 126
Race 7 Stanstill 79 + wfa (marker for round course)
Race 1 (no rating - I tend not to look at amatueur/ladies races)
Race 2 Nideeb 86 + wfa
Race 3 Lady Of The Desert 97 + wfa
Race 4 Sri Putra 103 + wfa
Race 5 Al Muheer 111 (marker for going allownace on straight course)
Race 6 Conduit 126
Race 7 Stanstill 79 + wfa (marker for round course)
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
I've been wired into two sprint winners in two weeks which isn't too bad - sadly Harris Tweed wasn't on one of the rated cards so I missed that one though he did alright last weekendHope you got as wired into Harris Tweed (11/2 early) as I did on Saturday then
Still working out how to use them to best advantage now I've created them (with some help from Gamla Stan and Warbler amongst others) :lol:
Gamla Stan
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As I say Martin, once you've got to grips with the Mordin way, it's well worth moving forward and reading the Beyer book and use the best of both methods.
EC1
On a break
i'm not using the class par method here DO..i use those like a Beyer method..but I also run a spreadsheet with trad calcs on..so i can see where you are coming from..thast what i am posting all the time..it makes it so we are all using a very similar method
are you not using a similar method to topspeed then?
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
I've ordered the Beyer book Picking Winners which will help hopefully and there's other US methods of handicapping I'm looking into at the moment which are proving useful too.
EC1
On a break
but if we are using the real superstars..in true run races then we should have Workforce in there etc...i would imagine with fair camparisons re distance at Epsom that the average of the best Derbys would be at least 115..there are a number of occasions where the Derby is marked down due to 12f course not correlating
i've probably not picked the best example here with the 12f allowance business at Epsom. The guineas might be better really..we can normally stick a real good allowance on that.
so.. up to press..nothing proven..you might be edging it
we could always..just not add wfa lol
EC1
On a break
i'm not letting you have this one
over the years that race has regularly thrown up slow speed figures..and you cherry pick that one out...sod :lol:
EC1
On a break
modern pace handicapping is good
but when you read it you will just be unhappy that we don't have proper sectionals here
EC1
On a break
i don't speed rate above 12f DO..so only had one race on round course..sri putra's race does tie in with the KG re allowance though
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Yeah - I'm reading a book called "Six Secrets of Successful Bettors" I think (will confirm later on EC1) which is good though at least the first two or three chapters are telling me what I already do, the concept of value, using the right info etc.modern pace handicapping is good
but when you read it you will just be unhappy that we don't have proper sectionals here
It's amazing how many people in the US rely solely on figures of one form or another, be it Beyer's speed ratings or Len Ragozin's graph methodology (not as widely available as Beyer's ratings which are in the DRF every day). Consequently there are plenty of good value plays - just gutted these $1m Pick 4's never contain 4 or 5 horse races where you can put "the field" in
EC1
On a break
Yeah - I'm reading a book called "Six Secrets of Successful Bettors" I think (will confirm later on EC1) which is good though at least the first two or three chapters are telling me what I already do, the concept of value, using the right info etc.
It's amazing how many people in the US rely solely on figures of one form or another, be it Beyer's speed ratings or Len Ragozin's graph methodology (not as widely available as Beyer's ratings which are in the DRF every day). Consequently there are plenty of good value plays - just gutted these $1m Pick 4's never contain 4 or 5 horse races where you can put "the field" in
I think the only angle left in this country where there is probably a gold mine awaiting..is sectionals..do it yourself one's though..but can you imagine the work you would need to do to keep up with it?. Even if they were only split in two sectionals ....they would give you an edge I think. I doubt many punters in this country would ever go to those lengths so you are assured of seeing stuff others miss.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
There are other angles that you can still play it's a matter of finding them - the sectionals is the main one involving time but tbh I've only ever tried it once or twice at Cheltenham in 2009 on the first day. It was a pretty successful trial but only really confirmed what I'd seen with my eyes EC1 - that Quevega is a Grade 1 quality horse, just a matter of finding the right distance. Attempted to use the closing sectionals to identify a pecking order amongst the 2-2 1/2m Hurdlers which showed there wasn't too much in it and I consequently went in very deep on Quevega for the Champion 2010 and at Punchestown 2009.
Desert Orchid
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I don't know what method topspeed uses and I didn't cherry pick Twice Over...
I had the form with me in the car en route to the flat and just thought of which were the all-age or 4yo+ G1s. The Champion Stakes was the first to spring to mind, followed by the Juddmonte but the latter was dominated by 3yos (and STS got 128+wfa!!!).
Last night I tried a few more (not that many I could think of). Some G1s were very slow (eg RVW v Paco Boy) but Regal Parade put up a (questionable?) 124 in the Sprint Cup.
I had the form with me in the car en route to the flat and just thought of which were the all-age or 4yo+ G1s. The Champion Stakes was the first to spring to mind, followed by the Juddmonte but the latter was dominated by 3yos (and STS got 128+wfa!!!).
Last night I tried a few more (not that many I could think of). Some G1s were very slow (eg RVW v Paco Boy) but Regal Parade put up a (questionable?) 124 in the Sprint Cup.
EC1
On a break
i were only kidding - it is a race that rarely has a decent figure though
i think in an ideal world..where the Derby is fairly rated..ie where the 12f course does tally with the rest..the best 3yo's would be averaging at 114/115..what bare figure did you give Workforce..120?
at most there is only 10lb difference..so adding 15 is being generous
like i said..ignoring it would be best re adding it afterwards..Beyers don't add it back..they just give the horse the bare figure they earn..which in reality is the best way
if you check out Mordins book as well..he gives a time allowance for 2yo+3yos..one for each half of season
Desert Orchid
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I reckon the evidence points to the scale being pretty much right for 3yos but I agree, as I've said elsewhere, that it isn't wise to add wfa to 2yos.
I used to split the difference between the official monthly and end-of-season allowances but even that gave some very high figures (although it did give me Kings Best for the Guineas), so then I added a blanket 'notional' 18lbs to all 2yo time ratings. It still sometimes gave very high figures but again, some 2yos are much more liek 3yos.
I tend not to add them at all these days, just do it in my head to see what the total is, out of curiosity.
I wouldn't set any store by Mordin's deliberations. I don't rate him but I'm ashamed to admit that now that I buy the Weekender regularly, his is one of the first columns I read. I usually do so to see if he's spouting his usual gobshite but sometimes he uncovers some interesting angles.
I used to split the difference between the official monthly and end-of-season allowances but even that gave some very high figures (although it did give me Kings Best for the Guineas), so then I added a blanket 'notional' 18lbs to all 2yo time ratings. It still sometimes gave very high figures but again, some 2yos are much more liek 3yos.
I tend not to add them at all these days, just do it in my head to see what the total is, out of curiosity.
I wouldn't set any store by Mordin's deliberations. I don't rate him but I'm ashamed to admit that now that I buy the Weekender regularly, his is one of the first columns I read. I usually do so to see if he's spouting his usual gobshite but sometimes he uncovers some interesting angles.
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