St Leger

On The Bridle said:
Between Sea Moon and Blue Bunting for me. Sea Moon may have been flattered last time out but he was awesomely impressive visually. Blue Bunting has not received the accolades she deserves for a top class season so far. Decent renewal.
Click to expand...

Not convinced by Sea Moon's Voltigeur but he's far from being the worse priced horse in the race. I wouldn't want to be a layer at odds against. Blue Bunting looks the value though - taken 5.5.
 
He'd (KF) probably have ridden one at Haydock on Saturday - were it not for stable commitments elsewhere.
 
I rarely back Ballydoyle horses but there is an obvious exception in the Leger. Seville has plenty of very good formlines, tying in very closely with Meandre who could end up favourite for the Arc were he to win the Niel. He clearly didn't run his race in the Voltigeur, and that can be pretty easily forgiven. 10s 1/4 odds e/w is huge (Hills).

Black Panther and Census will be running in Group 3s for the rest of their careers after Saturday.
 
I could not agree more with Gamala Stan on this one. It's a complete lack of loyalty and makes RK position as stable jockey untenable. Fallon has not won a Group 1 in Europe since Dylan Thomas won the Arc.
 
Gearoid said:
I could not agree more with Gamala Stan on this one. It's a complete lack of loyalty and makes RK position as stable jockey untenable. Fallon has not won a Group 1 in Europe since Dylan Thomas won the Arc.
Click to expand...

He has won the German Oaks to be fair but even so, RK has ridden winners at Royal Ascot for them. It's not as though he's a 7 pound claimer.

Fallon probably is pound for pound the better jockey but that's not the point for me when they employ a stable jockey.
 
Agree with Hamm, can't see much value in the race bar Seville. I backed him at 5s before York, might as well continue to row in now!
 
It makes all those tears from Michael Owen when he had the Ascot winner seen very shallow. I am shocked at how short sighted the decision is. I'm going to dig a bit deeper on this one.
 
What's there to dig for. He's a very average jock and has given Brown Panther two pretty poor rides since Royal Ascot. No big surprise that when the phone rings and a more experienced jock wants to ride it that connections allow him.
 
The guy isn't a Group 1 jockey - I don't see the issue really.


Good points made re Seville but that horse has cost me too much money already this year. I'm not getting involved again.
 
Agree. And there's not much he can do - it's not like he'd be employed at another stable on a similar level to Dascombe's (not that i rate him at all highly).
 
The last high profile example of this happening that I can think of was Jimmy Fortune, Frankie Dettori and Ravens Pass. That was the end of Jimmy Fortune with Gosden. I wonder would they jock Buick off one now?
 
You're comparing apples with oranges. Fortune was a very good jockey (on a different level to Kingscote, for example) but Buick is a level up again, with the potential to go right to the top. He's already a small positive in a Group race, so why would they replace him? His temperment suggests he will only get better (unlike say Barzalona in my eyes).
 
Indeed, the issue for me is that if you're employing a stable jockey, you use him on all rides, especially for the big days. It is disloyal to turn to someone else (who has no recent winning experience in Group Ones anyway bar the German Oaks) and also if Kingscote's lack of experience is a factor, how is he going to get experience if the yard that employ him don't put him on horses in the big races?!

Dascombe's yard is growing all the time with the investment they've got and they've had a cracking year with their juveniles. If their results match their ambitions and investment, this situation is going to happen again and they surely have to admit that Kingscote isn't good enough for them and part company at the end of the season.
 
Last edited:
It’s difficult to get away from Sea Moon, who is very closely related to St Leger winner Brian Boru and conforms to a typical Dosage Index of past St Leger winners. I backed him at 7/1 prior to York but would think the value has gone now. On his best form Seville, who features above Sea Moon for stamina aptitude, would be entitled to go close, but there seems no good reason for him to turn around the 10 length beating he received at York. Blue Bunting is tough but will be tested against the colts at this trip. Of the fillies Wonder Of Wonders could be worth an interest at the price (if lining up). Masked Marvel, Brown Panther and possibly Census look to have the strongest chances of those remaining.

In rough order of preference (regardless of vaue) I’d have:
1) Sea Moon
2) Seville
3) Wonder Of Wonders
4) Masked Marvel
5) Blue Bunting
6) Census

Wonder Of Wonders has close form with Blue Bunting. The Kingmambo filly finished runner-up in the Oaks, with Blue Bunting back in fourth. She was subsequently placed half-a-length behind Blue Bunting in the Irish equivalent and over four lengths third to the same rival in the Yorkshire Oaks. Although Blue Bunting has demonstrated that she has an edge over her rival at the business end of her races there is a big difference in their current respective odds and Wonder Of Wonders may tip the balance back in her favour at this trip. Her connections had been considering dropping her back in trip and she could go for the Prix de l’Opera according to her trainer. Nevertheless if she lines up here she is worth an interest at the price.
Therefore in terms of value I’d fancy Wonder Of Wonders over Blue Bunting.
 
Connections suggesting Wonder Of Wonder's more likely to go for Prix de L'Opera, hence why she's 100's+ on betfair rather than anout 20's.
 
I would be shocked and amazed if Wonder of Wonders outstayed Blue Bunting. She threw the towel in last time when the Godolphin filly ranged up. She didn;t quite cock her jaw but she certainly thought about it and wasn't particularly keen.
 
On the jocking off thing I didn;t realise until now that Coolmore had bought Excelebration and as a result Kirby may lose the ride for the Moulin. Harsh on Kirby who I think is becoming a very good jockey.
 
Interesting Aragorn, where did you read that? Personally rate Kirby but decision is a little more easier to swallow given I don't think he is retained by the owner or the yard.
 
davidjohnson said:
Connections suggesting Wonder Of Wonder's more likely to go for Prix de L'Opera, hence why she's 100's+ on betfair rather than anout 20's.
Click to expand...

Yep... I mentioned that. Although the messages from Ballydoyle (typically) are mixed and she may have been left in for a reason.
 
Aragorn said:
I would be shocked and amazed if Wonder of Wonders outstayed Blue Bunting. She threw the towel in last time when the Godolphin filly ranged up. She didn;t quite cock her jaw but she certainly thought about it and wasn't particularly keen.
Click to expand...

It's true she hasn't got bottomless stamina, but may prove to be better at the trip than Blue Bunting.

Masked Marvel and Seville are two with plenty of stamina.
 
Gearoid said:
The lads in the yard are not slow at using Betfair. 100+ means she will not run.
Click to expand...

Very likely so. But this is also likely to be because the yard have as good as said so. Nevertheless, she has been left in along with Seville (and Freedom), so I'm saying that if she lines up she represents relative value compared with Blue Bunting.
 
On The Bridle said:
A lumpy straight place bet on Blue Bunting at something coming close to evens is the order of the day!!
Click to expand...

I honestly think she'll struggle a bit against the colts and at the trip. I don't think she's good enough to win and although I wouldn't rule out she'll be placed, for me one or two would have to run below their potential for her to be in the frame. Evens a place doesn't look great to me.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top