St Leger

davidjohnson said:
Don't think I'd have Sea Moon down as a must bet for this at all really. I don't like horses that run massive career-bests off absences and then have to turn out quickly. Sea Moon is bred to stay but he took a hell of a time to settle in the Voltigeur. Any horse that puts up a 111 speed figure like he did over ten at York when winning his handicap isn't slow.

Hard to see Blue Bunting coming close to a price that suggests she HAS to be backed, equally anything EW that gets you a free bet looks to have limited risk.
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A sound assessment. I got lured in by Rewilding last year and even though Sea Moon perhaps has a better pedigree for the job it takes a very good one to follow that up over the 1m6f of the Leger.

I'm sticking with Blue Bunting again. She has been underestimated all year in my opinion and I think she might just turn over the boys. Dynaformers are made for the Leger.
 
Aragorn said:
A sound assessment. I got lured in by Rewilding last year and even though Sea Moon perhaps has a better pedigree for the job it takes a very good one to follow that up over the 1m6f of the Leger.

I'm sticking with Blue Bunting again. She has been underestimated all year in my opinion and I think she might just turn over the boys. Dynaformers are made for the Leger.
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I don’t see the York run as being significant re Rewilding/Sea Moon. They are different horses coming from entirely different situations.

What Mordin and co don’t get is that Rewilding (and Blue Bunting) had both been on the go since before the Guineas. Rewilding was knackered (had been prepared for Group races in April). Sea Moon is a fresh horse and contrary to some saying he had a hard race at York I thought he did it very well within himself. The race is likely to have brought him on if anything. Tough as Blue Bunting is I think she may be the one to struggle and would actually be keen to take her on with a few of them in match bets... Sea Moon will take a world of beating.
 
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SteveM said:
I don’t see the York run as being significant re Rewilding/Sea Moon. They are different horses coming from entirely different situations.

What Mordin and co don’t get is that Rewilding (and Blue Bunting) had both been on the go since before the Guineas. Rewilding was knackered (had been prepared for Group races in April). Sea Moon is a fresh horse and contrary to some saying he had a hard race at York I thought he did it very well within himself. The race is likely to have brought him on if anything. Tough as Blue Bunting is I think she may be the one to struggle and would actually be keen to take her on with a few of them in match bets... Sea Moon will take a world of beating.
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I don't think it's correct to say Rewilding was knackered - he wasn't at all overaced last year. He was however a very very light framed horse who couldn't withstand much racing at all, and the Leger came too soon for him. He was a different horse physically this year, which adds yet another sad element to his demise.
 
Hamm said:
I don't think it's correct to say Rewilding was knackered - he wasn't at all overaced last year. He was however a very very light framed horse who couldn't withstand much racing at all, and the Leger came too soon for him. He was a different horse physically this year, which adds yet another sad element to his demise.
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Knackered, over the top, however you want to say it, the Leger was a race too far. Not so with Sea Moon.
 
SteveM said:
Knackered, over the top, however you want to say it, the Leger was a race too far. Not so with Sea Moon.
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I am not saying he was either knackered or over the top. What I said was he was very very light behind, and needed to develop physically. In that state, he couldn't take racing too often without a break.
 
Again, no. He just needed time to freshen up between races. Big difference with that and over the top.
 
Apologies for bringing Rewilding into this discussion, how he fared obviously will have absolutely no bearing on how Sea Moon gets on, it was a lazy comparison.

However with Sea Moon, one mans 'fresh' is another's 'slow to come to hand or not easy to train'. Good luck to those backing him at 6/4, but there are just a couple of niggles for me that stop me getting involved. That said, as much of that is about personal betting style and bbeing reluctant to back at short odds these days.
 
If you told me there was a Group 1 race where the 4th was a dual Oaks winner who went on to win a big Japanese race and the Hong Kong Cup before running a close second in an Irish Champion Stakes, the 5th won the Canadian International next time out, and the 6th proved himself one of the best colts around by winning the Sheema Classic and the Prince of Wales, I'd be dying to know who the first three were.

And I'd be very disappointed.

Which is a long-winded way of saying that last year's result just looks really, really odd in retrospect, and I don't think anyone should be beating themselves up for backing Rewilding (or Snow Fairy, esp at 8/1) to beat that lot.
 
davidjohnson said:
Apologies for bringing Rewilding into this discussion, how he fared obviously will have absolutely no bearing on how Sea Moon gets on, it was a lazy comparison.

However with Sea Moon, one mans 'fresh' is another's 'slow to come to hand or not easy to train'. Good luck to those backing him at 6/4, but there are just a couple of niggles for me that stop me getting involved. That said, as much of that is about personal betting style and bbeing reluctant to back at short odds these days.
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Too true... while I think he's by far the most likely winner I wouldn't be falling over myself to back him at very short prices.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
If you told me there was a Group 1 race where the 4th was a dual Oaks winner who went on to win a big Japanese race and the Hong Kong Cup before running a close second in an Irish Champion Stakes, the 5th won the Canadian International next time out, and the 6th proved himself one of the best colts around by winning the Sheema Classic and the Prince of Wales, I'd be dying to know who the first three were.

And I'd be very disappointed.

Which is a long-winded way of saying that last year's result just looks really, really odd in retrospect, and I don't think anyone should be beating themselves up for backing Rewilding (or Snow Fairy, esp at 8/1) to beat that lot.
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I don't personally think he'll be upto much but surely Arctic Cosmos deserves a chance this year first?!
 
Yep - Gosden came out yesterday and said he'll run in the Cumberland Lodge, then the Canadian International.
 
It is tempting. Even though I'm on BB most of the time I take 4s or 9/2 about a horse I'm taking on the favourite. This time I'm against the also rans. Census should be 10s minimum - Seville is a dog - Masked Marvel and Brown Panther are jumped up handicappers.
 
Blue Bunting is supernap material imo, is bred to stay at least as well..if not better than Sea Moon..the fav is way too short..BB should be favourite and represents bet of the season status

dip yer bread..because when she wins ...it will be.."how the hell did she go off that price"

BB by about 3 lengths;)
 
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