St Leger

I really can't see what people see in Seville. When was the last time he won a race? Is he not just slow?
 
Gearoid said:
I really can't see what people see in Seville. When was the last time he won a race? Is he not just slow?
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How can you come second in the Irish Derby (just beaten) and second in the Grand Prix de Paris (clear in second) and be slow?
 
Adjusted Timeform Rating of St Leger winner over last 5 years is 139/134/141/136/137 (Av 137)

Adjusted rating for Saturday's race of leading contenders
SEA MOON 142 p
BLUE BUNTING (USA) 139
SEVILLE (GER) 136
CENSUS (IRE) 134
WONDER OF WONDERS (USA) 133
BROWN PANTHER 132
MASKED MARVEL 131

Have to agree with the Blue Bunting place or EW angle as being a solid proposition. I'd fancy Blue Bunting to find as much as any of her rivals for the longer trip. If Sea Moon is as good as he looked at York, he'd win easily. So would Rewilding have last year though too!
 
Hamm said:
How can you come second in the Irish Derby (just beaten) and second in the Grand Prix de Paris (clear in second) and be slow?
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Relatively speaking he is slow. Connections know it hence the way he's been ridden on his last couple of starts.
 
Hamm said:
How can you come second in the Irish Derby (just beaten) and second in the Grand Prix de Paris (clear in second) and be slow?
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He was smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Irish Derby form you can have all to yourself.
 
davidjohnson said:
Adjusted Timeform Rating of St Leger winner over last 5 years is 139/134/141/136/137 (Av 137)

Adjusted rating for Saturday's race of leading contenders
SEA MOON 142 p
BLUE BUNTING (USA) 139
SEVILLE (GER) 136
CENSUS (IRE) 134
WONDER OF WONDERS (USA) 133
BROWN PANTHER 132
MASKED MARVEL 131

Have to agree with the Blue Bunting place or EW angle as being a solid proposition. I'd fancy Blue Bunting to find as much as any of her rivals for the longer trip. If Sea Moon is as good as he looked at York, he'd win easily. So would Rewilding have last year though too!
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At what price would Sea Moon and/or Blue Bunting be a must bet? The kind you start seperate threads for?
 
Gearoid said:
I really can't see what people see in Seville. When was the last time he won a race? Is he not just slow?
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Runner-up in three Group 1s and a Group 2 though and better suited to this trip than anything he's appeared in before.
 
Gearoid said:
At what price would Sea Moon and/or Blue Bunting be a must bet? The kind you start seperate threads for?
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Don't think I'd have Sea Moon down as a must bet for this at all really. I don't like horses that run massive career-bests off absences and then have to turn out quickly. Sea Moon is bred to stay but he took a hell of a time to settle in the Voltigeur. Any horse that puts up a 111 speed figure like he did over ten at York when winning his handicap isn't slow.

Hard to see Blue Bunting coming close to a price that suggests she HAS to be backed, equally anything EW that gets you a free bet looks to have limited risk.
 
Euronymous said:
Really? Sea Moon apart you're looking at Seville and some handicappers.
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Masked Marvel, for example, looks more certain to be placed to me than BB at this trip. I also think that Census could run a big race. If you add Sea Moon, Seville and possibly WoW into the mix there's not a lot of room left in the frame.
 
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Thanks DJ - I like your angle with Sea Moon. Solid reasons to take him on. Rewilding did indeed look as much of a good thing last season. Steve - How much improvement for the extra 2f is Seville going to find? He was well touted during the winter on the back of suspect 2yo form, the claims being he would improve when upped in trip etc. To my eyes he is simply pace less.
 
It's all looking at him through the price. If I'd have backed him at 7's prior to York like I'd intended, I wouldn't hear of defeat!
 
Gearoid said:
Steve - How much improvement for the extra 2f is Seville going to find? He was well touted during the winter on the back of suspect 2yo form, the claims being he would improve when upped in trip etc. To my eyes he is simply pace less.
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He should certainly improve for the step up, but if he ran like he did at York he won't be winning anything. On the other hand if he ran like he did in the couple of Group 1s before that he'd be the main danger to Sea Moon.

I think that Sea Moon is by far the likeliest winner, but wouldn't call him value at current prices. If back to 2/1 though I'd probably back him again.
 
Seville will be revved up for this one by Aidan, not to say that he hasn't been revved up before but I think he has one last big run in him and AOB will have him spot on for this. There is a NH sire career at stake here so I expect him to go very close!
 
It's very hard indeed to judge accurately the Voltigeur form. A number clearly ran well below their best. It was interesting to see Roger Charlton's view in the Weekender to the effect that Al Kazeem didn't really get the last two furlongs - "the extra 2f at York worked against him" - and will be suited by coming back in trip. Al Kazeem was rated 105 going into the race and is on 107 now and looks a reasonably solid marker despite the comments about his stamina. You could argue that giving a 105-107 horse an eight length beating as Sea Moon did isn't that much different from Census' performance at Newbury when he gave a very solid marker rated 109 (Times Up) a beating of about six lengths. It doesn't necessarily make Census a bet but it's a good enough reason in my view to steer clear of Sea Moon at short odds, particularly given his running style as highlighted by DJ which might raise doubts about him getting home.

I'm sure I'll end up backing Blue Bunting, to be honest.
 
Here's my breakdown of the race in terms of stamina aptitude (apologies if the formatting gets a bit messy):

Sea Moon has irresistible claims in final classic

THE DOSAGE system comes into its own when analysing Group races that require a test of stamina. It also gives us a decisive edge when there is scant form at the distance to go on and in situations where those taking part are still largely unknown quantities. In fact there are few, if any, races in which the system is of more help to us than in Doncaster’s premier event – the final and oldest classic.

Winning criteria
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past 17 winners of the race is 1.10, with the ‘right types’ for the race having a DI of about 1 or lower (the lower the DI the more stamina aptitude). Of these winners, the overwhelming majority satisfy this requirement – they comprise: Mastery (DI 1.00), Conduit (0.76), Sixties Icon (1.00), Scorpion (1.00), Brian Boru (1.05), Bollin Eric (1.00), Milan (0.77), Millenary (0.83), Mutafaweq (1.07), Nedawi (0.92), Silver Patriarch (1.00), Classic Cliché (0.83) and Moonax (0.73).

Although Rule Of Law defied these guidelines in 2004 with a DI of 2.11 and Arctic Cosmos had a higher than average DI of 1.77 when successful in last year’s race, the winner typically has a DI of about 1 or lower and a low or negative centre of distribution (CD).
The accompanying table shows nine of the 11 remaining in the season’s final classic at the latest confirmation stage. As usual the table is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of DI. The point scores for Freedom and the supplemented Rumh are too low to provide a meaningful reading and they are therefore excluded.

2011 St Leger contenders

Horse Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Masked Marvel Montjeu/Mark Of Esteem 2-0-9-4-1 = 16 0.68 -0.13
Seville Galileo/Silver Hawk 3-0-16-5-2 = 26 0.73 -0.12
Brown Panther Shirocco/Unfuwain 3-0-6-1-2 = 12 1.00 0.08
Sea Moon Beat Hollow/Alleged 4-2-12-5-1 = 24 1.00 0.13
Genius Beast Kingmambo/Sinndar 9-3-21-10-1 = 44 1.05 0.20
Wonder Of Wonders Kingmambo/Sadler’s Wells 12-2-26-12-0 = 52 1.08 0.27
Blue Bunting Dynaformer/Linamix 3-2-18-0-1 = 24 1.40 0.25
Buthelezi Dynaformer/Quiet American 5-6-22-0-1 = 34 1.83 0.41
Census Cacique/Selkirk 4-2-8-0-0 = 14 2.50 0.71

Ballydoyle
Seville is one of three left in the race for trainer Aidan O’Brien. He ran a good race in defeat in the Dante on his reappearance this term when runner-up to Carlton House. After flopping in the Derby he returned to form in the Irish equivalent behind stablemate Treasure Beach and was also runner up in the Grand Prix de Paris to Arc hopeful Meandre. The Galileo colt should prove ideally suited to the St Leger trip despite proving no match for Sea Moon in the Great Voltigeur.
Wonder Of Wonders has close form with Blue Bunting. The Kingmambo filly finished runner-up in the Oaks, with Blue Bunting back in fourth. She was subsequently placed half-a-length behind Blue Bunting in the Irish equivalent and over four lengths third to the same rival in the Yorkshire Oaks. Although Blue Bunting has demonstrated that she has an edge over her rival at the business end of her races there is a big difference in their current respective odds and Wonder Of Wonders may tip the balance back in her favour at this trip. Her connections had been considering dropping her back in trip and she could go for the Prix de l’Opera according to her trainer. Nevertheless if she lines up here she is worth an interest at the price.
Freedom is a 10 furlong Curragh maiden winner. The front-running Hurricane Run colt rallied after losing his place to finish third in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on Saturday, behind the five-year-old Galileo’s Choice.

Brown Panther has won four of his seven starts for trainer Tom Dascombe and owner Michael Owen, including a six-length victory in the King George V Stakes. The Shirocco colt had to settle for runner-up spot behind the Richard Hannon-trained Census on his latest appearance in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. He has solid chances at the trip and Kieren Fallon is to replace Richard Kingscote in Saturday’s big race.

Census may well have a better chance than his Dosage figures suggest. Despite having no points in the stamina wing of his profile, the Cacique colt has shown an aptitude for finishing his races at 12 and 13 furlongs. The average winning distance (AWD) of his sire’s progeny is above 11 furlongs and he is expected to give a good account of himself.
Masked Marvel, who finished eighth in the Derby, held off a fast-finishing Census on Newmarket’s July course in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy over 13 furlongs on his latest start. The John Gosden-trained Montjeu colt appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude and holds a plausible chance in this. Gosden also has Buthelezi, fourth to Census in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer on his latest start, in the race.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Sea Moon was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York in the latest of his four starts and second of this season, leaving Seville some 10 lengths in his wake. The Beat Hollow colt is a half-brother to the 2003 St Leger winner Brian Boru and has six points in the stamina wing of his Dosage profile. His DI of 1.0 also conforms to that of a typical winner of this race. Olivier Peslier is set to take the ride, with Ryan Moore sidelined and Richard Hughes, who rode Khalid Abdullah’s colt at York, back onboard Census.

Godolphin
1,000 Guineas, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks winner Blue Bunting is one of two possibles for Mahmood Al Zarooni and is considered the main danger to the favourite in the market. The Godolphin trainer is also set to be represented by Genius Beast, a Group 3 winner at Sandown and fourth in the Great Voltigeur. The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained Monsun filly Rumh has been supplemented will take up pacemaker duties.

Speed/stamina balance
The average DI for the past 17 winners is slightly above 1, with the ideal type for the race below 1.
Dosage of previous St Leger winners

Year Horse DI CD
2010 Arctic Cosmos 1.77 +0.50
2009 Mastery 1.00 0.00
2008 Conduit 0.76 -0.09
2007 Lucarno 1.34 +0.26
2006 Sixties Icon 1.00 +0.23
2005 Scorpion 1.00 +0.19
2004 Rule Of Law 2.11 +0.17
2003 Brian Boru 1.05 +0.18
2002 Bollin Eric 1.00 +0.14
2001 Milan 0.77 -0.05
2000 Millenary 0.83 +0.02
1999 Mutafaweq 1.07 +0.14
1998 Nedawi 0.92 +0.09
1997 Silver Patriarch 1.00 +0.03
1996 Shantou 1.67 +0.38
1995 Classic Cliché 0.83 0.00
1994 Moonax 0.73 -0.04
____
Average Dosage index = 1.10

Shortlist
With regard to stamina suitability the following look the best placed in relation to previous winners: Masked Marvel (DI 0.68), Seville (0.73), Brown Panther (1.00), Sea Moon (1.00), Genius Beast (1.05), Wonder Of Wonders (1.08) and Blue Bunting (1.40).

Conclusion
Of these it is difficult to get away from Sea Moon, who is very closely related to St Leger winner Brian Boru and conforms to a typical DI of past St Leger winners. On his best form Seville, who features above Sea Moon in our stamina aptitude table, would be entitled to go close, but there seems no good reason for him to turn around the 10 length beating he received at York. Blue Bunting is tough but will be tested against the colts at this trip. Of the fillies Wonder Of Wonders could be worth an interest at the price. Masked Marvel, Brown Panther and possibly Census look to have the strongest chances of those remaining.

Verdict:
1) Sea Moon
2) Seville
3) Wonder Of Wonders
4) Masked Marvel
5) Blue Bunting
6) Census
 
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As if there was not enough reasons to take the horse on he now also has a 3lb penalty.
 
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