Supreme Novices Hurdle 15 March 2022

Slim said:
I feel like this thread might have gone off the rails over the last 3 pagre of theoretical races over fences.
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Why criticise which anyone can do:blink:.....Why not join in on the conversation and give us your take on where the futures of Jonbon, Constitution Hill, Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard lie.

I for one would love to know what you think
 
I do feel like the thread has run it’s course for now. Conclusions thus far…

- We’re still no clearer on which of the main 4 go here or Ballymore
- Someone threw the question open regarding any interesting outsiders. No real interest
- Nobody can say with utter confidence which of the 4 would win, even if they all turn up
- There are no more key trials/races to be run so we might as well wait until we know who’s going to be running

The ultimate guessing thread right now
 
Tanlic said:
Why criticise which anyone can do:blink:.....Why not join in on the conversation and give us your take on where the futures of Jonbon, Constitution Hill, Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard lie.

I for one would love to know what you think
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My opinion hasn't changed. Dysart Dynamo will go for this and Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore. Dysart Dynamo will go off favourite and win.

In races where so much is unknown I think it's nearly impossible to change anyones opinion. You'll notice the Sir Gerhard Supreme backers are the worst offenders for refusing to change their opinion.
 
I hope SG goes for the longer race but I will pick whatever looks best in the paddock.
 
I just watched all 4 horses again and it's amazing the difference in the way they are being taught.

Willie seems to prefer the I'm off I'll see you lads back in the changing room

Whereas Nicky's pair have been held up to teach them what it will be like in a proper race.

None of them have beaten anything of note nor has their form been given a massive boost

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago a few friend on social media told me to expect a big gamble on Jonbon on the day.

Could be nothing but someone caught Nicky and JP on film at Kempton and you can clearly hear Nicky talking about Jonbon
just after he workd saying he is twice the price he was before he had even ran and having a good old cackle about it.

I've already commited myself heavily when I dutched the Henderson pair so it doesn't bother me what prices they go off
at but I am confused at why Sir Gerhard is so short and in some cases shorter than Dysart Dynamo who looks different gravy to him in my eyes.

If Sir Gerhard goes for the Ballymore I think I would try and find something to beat him
Ruby said he is all about speed and he didn't give me the impression last time that he was a sure thing to stay 2m5f
 
This thread is just the perfect example of some expressing valuable insights and opinions in a succinct manner...... and others with little of value but posting endless amounts of rubbish

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
JamesRB said:
market is heading the other way
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Sir G actually supplanted CH at the top of the Betfair market earlier this evening before a bit of common sense prevailed. We could have an Abacadabras/Shishkin reversal nearer the off though on the day of race market. I hope so anyway.
 
Euronymous said:
Sir G actually supplanted CH at the top of the Betfair market earlier this evening before a bit of common sense prevailed. We could have an Abacadabras/Shishkin reversal nearer the off though on the day of race market. I hope so anyway.
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I cant keep up with it me. Absolutely mental. Im in what i consider good positions most races, no need to get involved now till the week.

Not relevant to this thread, but Galoping shortening for the 3m tonight. Guessing people at preview nights are playing silly bollocks.

ATRs preview with Codd tomorrow, expect whatever he puts up to half in price
 
Have just availed myself of 6/1 about DD on the machine. I subscribe to Slim’s theory about Preview Night gobshitery screwing with DD/SG respective prices for Supreme & Ballymore.
 
This being what looks like the most competitive Supreme in history, has it ever occured to anyone that
Willie Mullins and his 2 owners have said fukc it if Nicky is running his 2 then we are running ours.?

Must be apossibility as the owners of all 4 and Kilcruit for that matter would rather win this Supreme
and the money is secondary to them.

Someone just put up 7.8 about DD but for 3 pounds. That's how easy it is to manipulate the Machine at this time.
 
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littlelad said:
This thread is just the perfect example of some expressing valuable insights and opinions in a succinct manner...... and others with little of value but posting endless amounts of rubbish

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
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Says the man who's total contrubution to this thread has been this one liner crap:mad:

Infact your entire contribution to this forum in the last month has been a bunch of one liners.......you're about as interesting as watching paint dry
 
reet hard said:
Slim ain't god - or even the trainer.:cool:
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True, but I didn’t profess his infallibility - only that I agreed with his perspective on the matter.

I already have a bet on SG at 7/1. With this drift - which appears to be based on some inconclusive Preview Night comments by Mikey Fogarty - it made absolute sense to back Dysart Dynamo, to ensure I had good coverage either way (only had DD in multis prior to yesterday).
 
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Grasshopper said:
True, but I didn’t profess his infallibility - only that I agreed with his perspective on the matter.

I already have a bet on SG at 7/1. With this drift - which appears to be based on some inconclusive Preview Night comments by Mikey Fogarty - it made absolute sense to back Dysart Dynamo, to ensure I had good coverage either way (only had DD in multis prior to yesterday).
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It sort of brings things into focus when a guy who rides the horse in a peice of work is still second guessing Willie. Interesting like Ruby he sees Sir Gerhard as a flying machine.
 
Sir Gerhard in to 2/1 favourite with some bookies.

Interesting, as I actually think Dysart Dynamo would be the best 2-miler from the Mullins yard, and Sir Gerhard not as pacey as the former... but what do I know hey!
 
At best prices on the front four in the market, the book is already 102% over-round. Include Kilcruit, and its 114.5%. Randomly selecting B365, they currently bet 118.58% the front four, and it's nearly 130% the front five.

These aren't market-moves. It's market manipulation to dupe punters into massively over-round and shitty-value books, on the strength of rumours and conjecture.

If my Granny named her cat Gerhard, I swear they'd cut the fu*cking price of his namesake in the Supreme. The bookies are taking the absolute slash out of everybody.
 
Grasshopper said:
At best prices on the front four in the market, the book is already 102% over-round. Include Kilcruit, and its 114.5%. Randomly selecting B365, they currently bet 118.58% the front four, and it's nearly 130% the front five.

These aren't market-moves. It's market manipulation to dupe punters into massively over-round and shitty-value books, on the strength of rumours and conjecture.

If my Granny named her cat Gerhard, I swear they'd cut the fu*cking price of his namesake in the Supreme. The bookies are taking the absolute slash out of everybody.
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No sympathy, Grass.They are feeding off obsessed punters, exactly the same as they do on the Grand National.
 
Eyes-down. We’ll be playing for the four corners and the Full House…..

Willie Mullins on Sir Gerhard:


"I've no doubt this fella has no problem going either race - he has the speed. If I didn't run him at the Dublin Racing Festival, I'd say he'd definitely go for the Supreme Novice. After that, maybe he'll go for the Ballymore."


#CheltenhamFestival
 
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