Tattersalls Gold Cup

Hamm said:
To be fair, if Steve is referring to the Paddy Power right next to me, then I can't see anyone getting refused unless they are in there every single day winning fortunes. Not sure about the other shops but this one does seem a bit different.
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I can't recall ever being refused or scaled down from the advertised price in the PP shop to which you refer. Then again I've had broadly similar experience at Ladbrokes, Hills and Coral as well as with a small North London independent who would try to accomodate you at the price you asked for rather than any particular chalked up price (...when it was still in business that is:().
 
SteveM said:
a small North London independent who would try to accomodate you at the price you asked for rather than any particular chalked up price (...when it was still in business that is:().
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That's probably why he's no longer in business!
 
SteveM said:
I'd agree, he doesn't look a certainty. I'd guess he's about a stone better than these, but has to give them half a stone. Clearly best on the numbers but won't be busting a gut.
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I’m starting to think perhaps Workforce is a good thing after all, when Stoutey goes out of his way to say: “I think he’s going to really need this race,” I reckon his Derby/Arc winner will be far from humiliated. Assuming Workforce wins he’ll come out with something like: “I was surprised how easily he did that as he really did need it”…
I think I’ll be watching this one rather than playing.
 
Looking at it another way. What can you see him running to?

Based on the field, and conceding 7 pounds, I think he needs to hit 123/124 to win, maybe 125. Will he hit this first time up over a trip (probably) short of his best?

Wouldn't you expect at least one of Jan Vermeer or Elusive Pimpernal, and possibly Cavalryman, to hit more than 117, over a trip that (again, probably) suits all 3 better than Workforce? I would. I'd be disappointed if one of the two first named weren't capable of hitting 120, and I think the latter could even win it reproducing some of his form if Workforce is not ready to run.

He will need to be very fit to win.
 
I agree he needs to run to around 125 to be certain of winning but it's a leap of faith to trust Jan Vermeer or Elusive Pimpernal.
 
I can't argue with David! It comes down to personal preference I suppose. 6/1 Van Vermeer will temp plenty in.
 
I think 10 furlongs will be comfortably his best distance and am not too sure he stays 12 all that well.
 
Re. JV. I think the drop might be enough. And I reckon there is reason to expect improvement. He was improving very quickly last season, until his last three runs being when upped to 12f. I had another look at his Irish Derby last night, and if you classify him as a non-stayer, he must be very classy indeed to get so close to the front two off such a savage pace.

The odds suggest that a match bet between Workforce and JV would be priced at 100/30 - 30/100. I think the way in which O'Brien dealt with him last season was very instructive of the regard in which the colt is held.

In all likelihood, he isn't as good as Workforce over 10f. However, I think it is likely that he is within 7lb of him. Certainly more likely than 100/30 the match bet would suggest. I have no idea about how good Elusive Pimpernel might be.
 
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It's a fair argument and I can understand why you want to take 6/1 e/w. I just can't get his feet problems out of my mind. O'Brien did work miracles with Rip Van Winkle so that is not a good enough reason on it's own.
 
It's a class race to get stuck into. There are so many angles. Tom Segal's view in the Racing Post tomorrow will be the first thing I will read. I'd like to see how he cuts up the race. Sri Putra @ 16/1 might be the type he will go for.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Re. JV. I think the drop might be enough. And I reckon there is reason to expect improvement. He was improving very quickly last season, until his last three runs being when upped to 12f. I had another look at his Irish Derby last night, and if you classify him as a non-stayer, he must be very classy indeed to get so close to the front two off such a savage pace.

The odds suggest that a match bet between Workforce and JV would be priced at 100/30 - 30/100. I think the way in which O'Brien dealt with him last season was very instructive of the regard in which the colt is held.

In all likelihood, he isn't as good as Workforce over 10f. However, I think it is likely that he is within 7lb of him. Certainly more likely than 100/30 the match bet would suggest. I have no idea about how good Elusive Pimpernel might be.
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This is well reasoned and for the large part I wouldn't disagree.

I’d agree there is not much wrong with Jan Vermeer and a lot that is right. He also looks the value. I couldn’t be at all confident about Workforce, although I think he’ll be fine at 10 furlongs (his dam sire is King’s Best), he’s won at 7 furlongs and the bit slipped though his mouth in the Dante.

I just get the feeling he may not be as much in need of this as Stoute suggests (he may simply be covering himself for any embarrassment).

Jan Vermeer is the apparent value, but I’d rather sit this one out. Workforce appears vulnerable but will probably still win.
 
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Would be Distant Memories each-way for me at 25's. Ran a good race on his return to a potential Group 1 winner IMO and is already proven he can win a race of this nature, he's consistent enough (unlike some in this race and has hit the frame in each of his last 10 starts ranging from a Class 4 handicap to a Group 2 on Arc weekend) and is already proven in the grade.

Would also be interested in Black Spirit for this on the back of his good run last time out over CD, obviously Workforce will be hard to beat but there are plenty of doubts surrounding Jan Vermeer who's not run in nearly a year, Elusive Pimpernel was disappointing last time out (3rd when favourite), Afsare was last in the Black Spirit race whilst Cavalryman spent much of last season being beaten in a Italian and German soft ground Group 1's.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Would also be interested in Black Spirit for this on the back of his good run last time out over CD.
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Cox does look like giving this a good go, he also has Poet in the race.

Workforce (130) aside no less than seven of them are rated between 116 and 118 (i.e. within a pound or two of each other). It looks difficult to come up with just one against the favourite.
 
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I'm with Martin here, at the prices I'd be playing Black Spirit and maybe Distant Memories EW. The former for his course form and the latter for his second to Await The Dawn.

Elusive Pimpernel will also improve a bundle for his first run of the year but I'd rather be on the other two I've mentioned at juicier prices.
 
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