The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

EC1 said:
CC showed more speed than stamina to finish where he did..would agree he will struggle in a true run 8f race
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It seems fairly clear cut to me that Canford would beat the Guineas winner on a flat track in a Group 1 at a mile.
 
By way of Google and Timeform's Horses To Follow, he's named after Oliver Henry "Noll" Wallop, Earl of Portsmouth, who apparently spent much of his time playing cowboy in Wyoming!
 
SteveM said:
It seems fairly clear cut to me that Canford would beat the Guineas winner on a flat track in a Group 1 at a mile.
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in a slow run race its speed that gets horses finishing - not stamina - CC showed good speed to get where he did..that doesn't suggest staying to me

not sure how you get stamina from a speed situation tbh
 
Marvellous, Gareth! That sounds like a good biography in waiting. I searched him on the RP online under 'Horses' and got 'no matches found' - I wasn't sure if he was NOL or NOLL, but neither came up. He is a non-horse!
 
EC1 said:
in a slow run race its speed that gets horses finishing - not stamina - CC showed good speed to get where he did..that doesn't suggest staying to me

not sure how you get stamina from a speed situation tbh
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The Guineas was run in 1m 36.35s. This is a respectable time not particularly slow at all.
 
Irish Stamp said:
I can't see him winning a good race over a mile the way he won the Coventry Steve.

The way people were talking about him after the Coventry you'd be expecting him to be winning these Group 1 mile races by 3 or 4 lengths.
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But he matched his Coventry rating when runner up to Dick Turpin at Newbury (RPR 118) this term and bettered it in the Guineas (119). So his best performance to date was his last one... at a mile.
 
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Timeform has a timefigure of 121 on the 2000 Guineas, so they think the time was not what you would expect of a slowly run race (and neither do I, fwiw).

I thought Hughes did a very good job of getting Canford Cliffs to settle when to begin with all he wanted to do was pull. If he can do that again then the horse can again run to 120, or possibly a bit more, at a mile.

But I am in the camp which would like to see him back at 6f/easy 7f with the jockey not having to worry about reining him back. We could still see something pretty spectacular, imo.
 
SteveM said:
The Guineas was run in 1m 36.35s. This is a respectable time not particularly slow at all.
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A good over all time surely hides the fact that they went pretty slow for the first few furlongs and then sprinted hard? No one suggests they did 8 slow furlongs..would have suited both the Hannon horses imo.
 
trackside528 said:
Does that timefigure come up to normal Guineas standard, Pru?
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it doesn't Track..as i pointed out..it was a full second slower than Cockney Rebel who ran on basically the same going time wise..even allowing for CR being a better horse..which we don't know yet..a full second isn't a true run race

as Gal says..no one is suggesting a pedestrian time..but the main pace push was second half of the race which is why such as SNA found it all happening to quickly

I would say that as far as averages go then the race was 6 or 7 lbs..at least below average time wise

Steve..bare times mean nothing to me
 
these are my speed figures for the few guineas I can lay my hands on.

1993 Zafonic 135
1996 Mark Of Esteem 121
1998 King Of Kings 124
2000 Kings Best 125
2004 Haafhd 124
2006 George Washington 120
2007 Cockney Rebel 131
2008 Henrythenavigator 124
2009 Sea The Stars 127
2010 Makfi 118

would be interested in seeing the Timeform ratings for these Pru if possible :)
 
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2009 Sea The Stars 124 (4 less than form)
2008 Henrythenavigator 117 (-7)
2007 Cockney Rebel 124 (-1)
2006 George Washington 122 (-7)
2005 Footstepsinthesand 110 (-10)
2004 Haafhd 129 (=)
2003 Refuse To Bend 118 (-4)
2002 Rock of Gibraltar 112 (-8)
2001 Golan 122 (=)
2000 King's Best 127 (-3)

average tfig previous 10 years is 120.5, average shortfall from form rating is 4.4. Makfi had a performance figure of 125 and a tfig of 121 so is "average".

Not saying that people cannot disagree with those figures, of course: I sometimes do.
 
Those others are:

King of Kings 125 form, 129 time
Mark of Esteem 127 form, 120 time
Zafonic 128 form, 134 time

We are probably quibbling over semantics here. To me, it appeared that they took 1f/330 yds to crack on in this year's Guineas and that it was a good pace thereafter. It did not appear to be an end-to-end gallop, but then few races do.

Wouldn't it be nice to have sectionals so that such things were beyond dispute?!
 
I would have to say that some of those figures seem low Pru..take Cockney Rebel for one...the going on Saturday and when CR ran was very similar..within 2lb per mile going allowance..and yet CR ran 1 second faster..which to me highlights that Makfi is a lot less than Timeform have suggested just in relation to CR.

If anyone else makes figures..check your going allowance for CR's race and see how it compares to saturdays race..they should be similar

Timeform figure suggest they are just 3lb different but the time difference of a second suggests more
 
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J Alfred Prufrock said:
Those others are:

King of Kings 125 form, 129 time
Mark of Esteem 127 form, 120 time
Zafonic 128 form, 134 time

We are probably quibbling over semantics here. To me, it appeared that they took 1f/330 yds to crack on in this year's Guineas and that it was a good pace thereafter. It did not appear to be an end-to-end gallop, but then few races do.

Wouldn't it be nice to have sectionals so that such things were beyond dispute?!
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yes - miss those sectionals - trust Newmarket to be one of the tracks where there aren't any "markers" :)
 
as well as the time - the early pace was such that Red Jazz 66/1 - Lord Zenith 200/1 - Fair Trader 50/1 all stayed with it to 2 out...and just 4 lengths covered the first 8 home

these factors also don't suggest the early pace was very hard to keep up with

also SNA's comments

Prominent, ridden over 2f out, outpaced over 1f out, stayed on again well inside final furlong (op 11-10 tchd 6-5 and 5-4 in places)

another sign of an injection of pace in a slower than even gallop..outpaced..then stays again..unlikely in a true run race
 
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thats really funny imo - 101 for a horse rated 93 in a race not run at a decent clip - in which the the winner + 4th & 5th pulled hard - a clear sign of lack of pace....also nothing came from behind to get near the leaders..another sign of a jog and sprint

to me its lazy figure making..they pick the race they want a decent figure for and inflate others to make it "look right"

Oasis Dancer's race was a slowly run affair and there is no way on earth it earned a 101 speed figure..but if they downgrade it to its correct figure it would reduce the guineas figure

they been doing this for years - hence i can't take them seriously
 
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Topspeed figures are tied into RPRs, not official ratings. Oasis Dancer got an RPR of 109.

In terms of ORs, he was officially rated 93 going into the race. He's been put up to 102 off the back of it.
 
but the race wasn't truly run so its not really possible he has run faster than even his OHR

the 121 Topspeed for Makfi then is an OHR of about..114?..RPRs are about 5lb/6lb higher than OHR?

if thats the case then its well below the Timeform figures anyway..which I assume are OHR based..which is what i work too anyway

either way..the Topspeed figure is too high for Oasis Dancer..the race was a real jog and sprint
 
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