The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

I remember Rip Van Winkle looking unbalanced in the Dewhurst and at Newmarket in the 2000 Guineas but he handled Epsom and the ups and downs of Goodwood fine. Different tests - but yeah I guess it would be a worry.

But he could equally have found himself getting unbalanced over a mile on fast ground when really quickening up.
 
Songsheet said:
Neither Guineas made me particularly go 'Wow, what great performances'. They were competent, workmanlike races but neither to me looked to be exceptional - although time will tell on that.

Maybe it was the combined factors of a particularly long, hard winter and the fact the first two Classics were as early in the season as it's possible for them to be ?
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Agreed. Interesting that all 6 placed horses in the two Guineas had the benefit of a prep.
 
I think Obrien with the Montjeus and Galileos is using the Guineas as a trial to build up,
St Nicholas Abbey was not hard ridden and still posted a 115 or similar nce, over a mile on good ground and not a fast pace first time out in the season, he is still the one to beat in the Derby.
 
sunybay said:
I think Obrien with the Montjeus and Galileos is using the Guineas as a trial to build up,
St Nicholas Abbey was not hard ridden and still posted a 115 or similar nce, over a mile on good ground and not a fast pace first time out in the season, he is still the one to beat in the Derby.
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the bulid up is obvious now
 
Personally I'm deserting the ship St Nic. I have heard Aidans reasoning but I can't have it. Doesn't look like he's trained on sufficiently to me.

Hopefully they'll ride Canford like he gets a mile next time so we can see if he does or not. I still suspect he doesn't really but his class gets him into the ball park. Dick is a lovely straight forward horse.

The first three home where bought for 26, 26, 50k and their stallions stood for 20, 4.5,5 K. !!!
 
I think both Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs will be 7 furlongs horses.

Sheikh I am surprised you are giving up on the horse - based on what are likely to be most unsuitable conditions for the horse on his debut. The confidence behind him suggests he was doing everything right at home to think he has trained on.
 
So given that we are being told that everything was against the horse and it was a virtual prep race, where was all that late money coming from then?
 
clivex said:
So given that we are being told that everything was against the horse and it was a virtual prep race, where was all that late money coming from then?
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I don't think it was a prep race per say - I think they clearly thought the horse could/would win under those conditions. I think the manner in which he looked unbalanced and just unhappy when the pace increased suggests to me they just got it wrong. The horse is not a miler (not in these conditions anyway) and was simply not quick enough for such a race. The Derby is an altogether different matter and in the context of that race it as a satisfactory....looking at The Derby field not many would have done much better in Saturday's race.
 
You got to go on what you see and I just think he didn't run well enough even taking into account mitigating circumstances. Physically he doesn't appear to me to have thrived over the winter. Disappointing but that's how I see it at the moment
 
Fair enough - in terms of how he has done physically I thought he did well considering he was never the biggest type nor looked the type to particularly grow that much from two to three.
 
Galileo said:
Fair enough - in terms of how he has done physically I thought he did well considering he was never the biggest type nor looked the type to particularly grow that much from two to three.
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to be fair then- if he hasn't grown he is going to struggle against those who have

i won't have him for the Derby i know that - doesn't feel right
 
to be fair then- if he hasn't grown he is going to struggle against those who have
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Is it true that elusive pimpernell has grown (or properly matured perhaps) over the winter and that might explain the closer proximity this time around? Everything about SNA is still based around the RP Trophy but from one of my lazy cursory looks the form of it isnt looking that special now (Coordinated Cuts recent run apart)

I wonder if he will be one that flops a bit in the derby and yet comes back well in the eclipse say. Oratorio all over again
 
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EC1 said:
to be fair then- if he hasn't grown he is going to struggle against those who have
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Did Rock Of Gibraltar grow that much from 2-3? Nope - he just strengthened up....that's what SNA has done when I saw him.

The comparison with Elusive P - maybe EP has improved past him but we cannot compare the Guineas to the RP Trophy as it was a different test in different conditions.
 
Galileo said:
Did Rock Of Gibraltar grow that much from 2-3? Nope - he just strengthened up....that's what SNA has done when I saw him.

The comparison with Elusive P - maybe EP has improved past him but we cannot compare the Guineas to the RP Trophy as it was a different test in different conditions.
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a slow run 8f race on G/F compared to a slow run 8f race on Good..not a world apart..on paper like :)
 
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i know :whistle:

i think if you read back... i was telling you just that before the guineas

hence why he were never winning a guineas

he came under a lot of pressure in the race..yes he hasn't finished that far back but the race wasn't pretty to watch

now if he had run on nicely after a quiet ride i would say it might be viewed differently that it was a good stepping stone but i would rather look elsewhere
 
He looked like a whippet on saturday SNA. The ones physically to take were EP and Al Zir who is beautiful to look at.
 
The stamina required to win a soft ground race over 8f as a 2yo is the same as what would be needed as a 3yo over at least 10f. Massive difference.
 
Euronymous said:
The stamina required to win a soft ground race over 8f as a 2yo is the same as what would be needed as a 3yo over at least 10f. Massive difference.
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which is what i argued before the guineas..ie..


the RP Trophy is the worst guineas trial by some way and 99% of time points to 10f/12f horses at 3yo.
 
EC1 said:
Do you think the RP trophy is a good guide to the guineas though David?..it normally points to a horse that doesn't have the speed for a guineas...points to stamina...a testing 1 mile for a 2yo points to needing further than a mile at 3 situation.

I have checked back and can't find a RP Trophy winner that won the guineas since 1991..anyone know the last RP trophy winner that won the guineas?
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you preaching to converted Euronymous..i was only tongue in cheeking with Gal

i do know that 2yo develop..picked it up along the way :p
 
Saturdays race was run under the same ground speed conditions as in 2007..going allowance within 2lb per mile on my calcs.

Makfi - 96.35 sec
Cockney Rebel - 95.28 sec

CR's guineas was a full second faster than Makfi's on near on the same ground conditions - this clearly highlights the early pace was not that strong on Saturday
 
EC1 said:
CR's guineas was a full second faster than Makfi's on near on the same ground conditions - this clearly highlights the early pace was not that strong on Saturday
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Not so sure that proves it was a slow early pace, imo CR was an outstanding miler and he won by 1.5 lenghts. However I do take on board the general concensus that it was a slowish first half.
 
Hughes is reported as saying that Canford Cliffs did not really handle the dip but Makfi looked to me just to find more when CC challenged.

DT was formidable on soft ground last year and could be hard to beat in the I 2000 rain or shine.
 
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