The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

I'll be interested to see what other figure makers make of the ground speed compared with CR's year.

anyone make figures out there?..got a going allowance for both guineas?
 
I looked at it last night but can't remember the exact figures off the top of my head.

I think the times were shaping up as average until compared with the 3yo sprint handicap, which probably was the only true-run race of the day (by which I mean the time and form probably equate to each other), which would bring the other races down a fair bit.

The 1000G was definitely on the slow side but I'm not ready to buy into the theory that becaue SD beat rank outsiders it can't be good form.

I had a 'minus' ging allowance both days. The ground was definitely fastish on Saturday and on the fast side of good on Sunday.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I looked at it last night but can't remember the exact figures off the top of my head.

I think the times were shaping up as average until compared with the 3yo sprint handicap, which probably was the only true-run race of the day (by which I mean the time and form probably equate to each other), which would bring the other races down a fair bit.

The 1000G was definitely on the slow side but I'm not ready to buy into the theory that becaue SD beat rank outsiders it can't be good form.

I had a 'minus' ging allowance both days. The ground was definitely fastish on Saturday and on the fast side of good on Sunday.
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the 6f sprint is a good marker and this also marries nicely with the 9f handicap- both those races clearly pull down the rest of the card - did you get a similar going allowance for Cockney Rebel's win..i got about 23lbs fast on the day - for both CR's & Makfi's. This is what confuses me about Timeform speed figures..they only have CR 3lb faster than Makfi which isn't really possibly seeing as there is a full second difference in the times.

I thought loads on here make speed figures - obviously not
 
Galileo said:
A good over all time surely hides the fact that they went pretty slow for the first few furlongs and then sprinted hard? No one suggests they did 8 slow furlongs..would have suited both the Hannon horses imo.
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While I can see what you're saying I think people have been sucked in to believing too much about what O'Brien said about the race being one of two halves. The Guineas wasn't particularly slow. Canford was finishing better than anything and he has achieved his best ever overall rating at this trip. Time may well tell that he is better at this trip than any other as a mature horse. I wouldn't be too adament in writing him off as a sub-miler. He's been placed in a decent Guineas after all and if ridden more aggressively may have won. I'm very hopeful he'll be impressive in the St James's Palace.
 
I thought it was slowly run while I was watching it first time - loads of horses refusing to settle and pulling for their heads.

Canford did not finish as well as you think - in fact in the last few yards he was well held after making a big move to close down on the leaders.

SteveM said:
While I can see what you're saying I think people have been sucked in to believing too much about what O'Brien said about the race being one of two halves. The Guineas wasn't particularly slow. Canford was finishing better than anything and he has achieved his best ever overall rating at this trip. Time may well tell that he is better at this trip than any other as a mature horse. I wouldn't be too adament in writing him off as a sub-miler. He's been placed in a decent Guineas after all and if ridden more aggressively may have won. I'm very hopeful he'll be impressive in the St James's Palace.
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Galileo said:
I thought it was slowly run while I was watching it first time - loads of horses refusing to settle and pulling for their heads.
Canford did not finish as well as you think - in fact in the last few yards he was well held after making a big move to close down on the leaders.
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That's a bit of an exaggeration imo. What I saw suggests Canford will be difficult to beat at or around a mile.
 
Just watched the race again (RUK app on Iphone is very handy) and he makes a big move to close on them but is not closing on them close home. It was actually a really impressive move - but as others say a drop in trip is required for him to be seen at his best.
 
wasting your time Gal - Steve has convinced himself CC was staying on - even though evidence clearly points to a turn of speed getting him there..and again flattening out as he did in the greenham..if he stayed 8f he would have eaten the greenham up and spat it out
 
EC1 said:
wasting your time Gal - Steve has convinced himself CC was staying on - even though evidence clearly points to a turn of speed getting him there..and again flattening out as he did in the greenham..if he stayed 8f he would have eaten the greenham up and spat it out
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I'd say it was a bit of both. What I'm against is this mind set that people have him in as a sub-miler. He's fine at a mile, perhaps better than shorter, as I expect him to prove in the St James's Palace... you don't have long to wait to see that I'm right about this.;)
 
SteveM said:
...and if Dick Turpin hadn't taken part that's what everyone would have been saying.
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now you know thats a silly argument :D..they would also be saying the same if Makfi+DT hadn't run in the guineas as well

you could say the 10th horse in the guineas would have won if the other 9 hadn't turned up

when CC races in another decent 8f race he is going to meet horses of a standard at that level each time he runs..there will always be a DT or Makfi because he does his best work before the 8th furlong kicks in..then he flattens out

its all about opinions obviously..but i prefer hard evidence..and all the evidence up to press shows CC as a speed horse
 
Presumably if Canford goes to the SJP, Dick Turpin does too? Why will CC beat Dick Turpin there?
 
Galileo said:
Just watched the race again (RUK app on Iphone is very handy) and he makes a big move to close on them but is not closing on them close home. It was actually a really impressive move - but as others say a drop in trip is required for him to be seen at his best.
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The demise of video recorders spoils racing for me to a degree. I often found if you played a tape on fast-forward (provided you had a machine that didn't produce a noise-band across the screen when you did so) you got a very good picture of the different speeds they were all travelling at during the various stages of a race.
 
While it doesn't make pretty viewing during the race, a rerun from a camera on a blimp probably gives the best perspective of a race. I didn't see one at the weekend, but I didn't watch much more than the race itself.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Presumably if Canford goes to the SJP, Dick Turpin does too? Why will CC beat Dick Turpin there?
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imo because DT was ridden to win it and Canford nursed through it like he didn't stay. I think this was the wrong thing to do with Canford (and for what it's worth so does Hannon now).
 
EC1 said:
now you know thats a silly argument :D..they would also be saying the same if Makfi+DT hadn't run in the guineas.
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...not that silly in relative terms, he's already proved it against more than 90% of these respective Group fields. Plus I believe there are good reasons why he can reverse form with both colts at a mile.
 
They will split them up now and I would expect that DT will turn up in the Irish or French Guineas next. CC might be better suited by the French though.
 
Aragorn said:
They will split them up now and I would expect that DT will turn up in the Irish or French Guineas next. CC might be better suited by the French though.
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Really? They both won't go to Ascot? Given he's beaten him twice already this season, you'd think DT should get priority.
 
to be fair Steve..the greenham was faster than the guineas and he patently flattened out after being given every chance...to a man ..the opinion was that he didn't stay there..the excuse in the guineas about being too far back doesn't remove the Greenham run.. where he was given every chance.

DT will always beat him over 8f imo..and there will be others that will too..particularly over a stiff mile even more so.
 
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SteveM said:
...not that silly in relative terms, he's already proved it against more than 90% of these respective Group fields. Plus I believe there are good reasons why he can reverse form with both colts at a mile.
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beating 90% doesn't mean you stay a distance..you do actually have to win at these distances..not knock two or three out in front of you to get the win :whistle:

what reasons do you have he can reverse form with DT?
 
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just watched the Greenham again

how far would DT have won by over another furlong do you think?..you can see he has just got into his stride at the end and is moving on... whilst CC is flat out all through the last furlong and going nowhere

seriously - they need to try CC over sprint trips..or they missing a trick imo
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Really? They both won't go to Ascot? Given he's beaten him twice already this season, you'd think DT should get priority.
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DT will almost certainly run in the Irish Guineas, whether he will also run in the St James's Palace is likely to be dependent on how he does in that.
 
EC1 said:
to be fair Steve..the greenham was faster than the guineas and he patently flattened out after being given every chance...to a man ..the opinion was that he didn't stay there..the excuse in the guineas about being too far back doesn't remove the Greenham run.. where he was given every chance.

DT will always beat him over 8f imo..and there will be others that will too..particularly over a stiff mile even more so.
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I thought nothing of the sort about the Greenham.
 
EC1 said:
beating 90% doesn't mean you stay a distance..you do actually have to win at these distances..not knock two or three out in front of you to get the win :whistle:

what reasons do you have he can reverse form with DT?
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At this level it certainly strongly suggests that in relative terms he does stay. His style of running is confusing most. He has a single burst of blistering excelleration. The trick is knowing when to use it. The thing you should appreciate is that fast horses can also get a mile. It's plain nonsense to say that that the colt finishing the best (that was also placed) in a classic run over a mile and run in a reasonable time does not get the trip.

Like I've said earlier. I think ridden differently he may well have beaten DT. On the other hand DT is a very good horse in his own right. Newmarket would also not suit Canford as well as Ascot. Flatter tracks will suit him very well, the dip at Newmarket did not suit him at all... enough reasons?
 
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plenty of reasons..none of them convince me though..he just isn't a miler imo..he might be a 7f horse but i would be sprinting with him..thats where his best form is
 
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