Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,836
I don't buy into the idea of a strongly-run mile race being the equivalent of a 10f one.
I think the more strongly run the race the more likely the class horse at the trip will prevail.
Where I might accept the idea of stamina being more important is on unusually soft ground. If, say, they average 12.5s per furlong on good ground, then it takes an extra 25s to cover two more furlongs to make it the equivalent of a 10f race. That would take virtually unraceable ground.
I tend to find Steve quite convincing when he goes out on a limb about stamina aptitudes and even though my own eyes tell me CC will be stretched over a true-run mile, I'm leaning towards him.
Having said all that, I'm very unlikely to have a bet in the race.
As an aside, people will remember that I backed Three Valleys for the UK triple crown when the horse was still a 2yo, based on his dosage. I remember being roundly ridiculed for that and the consensus was that he was an out-and-out sprinter despite his dosage. As a 3yo he only raced twice here, being beaten by the eventual Guineas winner in the Craven before disappointing badly in the classic itself. He was sent to the USA and went on to be a high class 8-9f horse. Steve had doubted his stamina in spite of his dosage figures but he doesn't seem to doubt CC's. That's what I find interesting.
I think the more strongly run the race the more likely the class horse at the trip will prevail.
Where I might accept the idea of stamina being more important is on unusually soft ground. If, say, they average 12.5s per furlong on good ground, then it takes an extra 25s to cover two more furlongs to make it the equivalent of a 10f race. That would take virtually unraceable ground.
I tend to find Steve quite convincing when he goes out on a limb about stamina aptitudes and even though my own eyes tell me CC will be stretched over a true-run mile, I'm leaning towards him.
Having said all that, I'm very unlikely to have a bet in the race.
As an aside, people will remember that I backed Three Valleys for the UK triple crown when the horse was still a 2yo, based on his dosage. I remember being roundly ridiculed for that and the consensus was that he was an out-and-out sprinter despite his dosage. As a 3yo he only raced twice here, being beaten by the eventual Guineas winner in the Craven before disappointing badly in the classic itself. He was sent to the USA and went on to be a high class 8-9f horse. Steve had doubted his stamina in spite of his dosage figures but he doesn't seem to doubt CC's. That's what I find interesting.
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