He was placed in a classic. That kind of performance conclusively proves he stays it at the highest level. The problem is people have had it in their heads he was a non-stayer before he ever ran over a mile, and will not let this belief go. It was exactly the same with Paco Boy, and people are still saying the same, even though he has won 2 Group 1s over a mile!
The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)
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Harbinger
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It was reported at the time in the Racing Post. You can find the article on the archive on the website; unfortunately I can't find a way to link to it directly:
The ORs on the RP results page are those held by the horses going into the race. Subsequently, Dick Turpin went up to 119 for a half-length (1lb) beating of Canford Cliffs (ran to his rating of 118), with Xtension another length (2lb) behind running to his mark of 116. Elusive Pimpernel, another half length (1lb) back was returned to his pre-Craven rating of 115 (achieved in the RP Trophy).
The ORs on the RP results page are those held by the horses going into the race. Subsequently, Dick Turpin went up to 119 for a half-length (1lb) beating of Canford Cliffs (ran to his rating of 118), with Xtension another length (2lb) behind running to his mark of 116. Elusive Pimpernel, another half length (1lb) back was returned to his pre-Craven rating of 115 (achieved in the RP Trophy).
EC1
On a break
reagrding the OHR given to the Coventry Gareth..apologies if you have them from another source..but coming from another angle.
check out Moran Gru
5 runs..then on 6th run OHR of 98 appears..that wasn't given for his run 22 Aug or 27 sept..it must have been given for the Coventry..was beaten 8.25 lengths in Coventry..so at 3lbs per length at 6f would put CC on 123 in Coventry..again higher than Guineas
check out Moran Gru
5 runs..then on 6th run OHR of 98 appears..that wasn't given for his run 22 Aug or 27 sept..it must have been given for the Coventry..was beaten 8.25 lengths in Coventry..so at 3lbs per length at 6f would put CC on 123 in Coventry..again higher than Guineas
EC...didnt say you were knocking Hannon and agree with what you say about the desirability of a mile win as opposed to sprint
I still think that breeding is by far the biggest indicator of staying ability. CC seems to be bred for a mile? A cursory look indicates that to me
Personally i wouldnt back him over that distance just yet, but no other runners are leaping off the page at me.
Whats the verdict on the Oxx horse?
I still think that breeding is by far the biggest indicator of staying ability. CC seems to be bred for a mile? A cursory look indicates that to me
Personally i wouldnt back him over that distance just yet, but no other runners are leaping off the page at me.
Whats the verdict on the Oxx horse?
EC1
On a break
i wonder why these don't appear in the RP form lines then Gareth?
118 is real conservative..and at the time its based on averages rather than runs of horses..that mark will change during the 2yo season as the form becomes clearer..but as CC then ran a duffer afterwards they have stuck with it...imo
its like rating the guineas now before we know what the horses will do..trying to put marks on 2yo in June is not an exact science
re my post about Moran Gru..if he was a 98 in the Coventry as later ratings suggest..then it makes the Coventry worth more than 118..also CC cantered in the Coventry
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Desert Orchid
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There has to be a chance that since 2yos are less mature - and therefore 6f requires more stamina for them than for a mature horse - the handicapper doesn't use 3lbs per length at 6f for juveniles. Maybe 2½lbs?
The handicapper also factors in ease of victory and the extent to which beaten horses were eased.
The handicapper also factors in ease of victory and the extent to which beaten horses were eased.
EC1
On a break
maybe the reason they don't put the OHR in the 2yo early form is that they want to see what horses do after to confirm that rating
if CC had not run..or had won comfy in France his 3yo starter OHR would have been higher..imo
not sure that they use 2.5 or 3 DO..what does RPR use in 2yo 6f races per length?
you could also use that argument with 3yo's..they aren't fully mature so does the lbs per length vary again as well bewteen them and 4yo+
if CC had not run..or had won comfy in France his 3yo starter OHR would have been higher..imo
not sure that they use 2.5 or 3 DO..what does RPR use in 2yo 6f races per length?
you could also use that argument with 3yo's..they aren't fully mature so does the lbs per length vary again as well bewteen them and 4yo+
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Desert Orchid
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Don't know for sure what they use but I'll have a go at checking this weekend. I was just trying to come up with a theory that fits the figures.
EC1
On a break
i can't see RPR's..just check a 2yo race and see what they allow for 1 length @ 6f- anybody?
rorydelargy
At the Start
Regarding 2yo OHR's - these simply don't exist before the end of July (when the first nurseries are run) and have always been deemed notional, for obvious enough reasons.
EC1
On a break
thats quite logical..so those given are possibly based on averages..the 118 is very low imo
you make a lot of sense on the radio Rory by the way..enjoy your analysis
rorydelargy
At the Start
EC1
On a break
most of my thoughts are on the spot tbh . the more I try to plan things the less they go right
I like your use of pace in analysis - one area I use a lot.. its well underused and explains so many races - imo pace is one area where an edge exists..so many people ignore it which is a good thing of course
I like your use of pace in analysis - one area I use a lot.. its well underused and explains so many races - imo pace is one area where an edge exists..so many people ignore it which is a good thing of course
Harbinger
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They clearly exist in some form - as reported above - even if they're left unpublished until the end of July.
EC1
On a break
i think they are pre lim types of ratings..but we learn something new here...well i have anyway..but its logical really..early ratings will be based on race standardisation i would imagine..step in Pru
I might be wrong..but imo that Coventry form is way in advance of his guineas run..using a weak argument..just look at Extension in each race
it points to speed figures for 2yo being an advantage before July anyway
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davidjohnson
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Just to clear things up regarding BHA ratings for juveniles, they are obviously compiled, but the ratings don't get published until August 1st I think. There is a spell in nurseries of about 4/5 weeks where horses can run in them but don't get a published mark. It's not all that long ago that the BHB (as it was at the time) didn't publish any rating for a 2-y-o that was in excess of 100. i.e a horse could have to run in a nursery from a mark of 104 but his listed published rating remained at 100.
I'm at work at the moment and so I can't look it up but there have always been nurseries in the first half of July. There's a 6f one at Ponte on a Tuesday and a 5f one at York's Magnet Cup day later the same week and I think there might even be one or two earlier than that now, possibly at Salisbury.
But you're right. Official marks aren't published in the early stages of the nursery season and we have to rely on the Post's "estimated handicap marks". I think they're pretty accurate but I've never understood why the official figures aren't given out. They must exist to enable Horse A to receive 7lbs from Horse B so why not publish them? Everybody would recognise that they represent a work in progress and are of necessity very fluid. Plenty of people use handicap ratings to assist them in deciding whether or not to have a bet (e.g. "X is up 10lbs for that impressive win the other day and I reckon that's lenient/excessive") so why not give them the information?
In the same spirit of glasnost, why only publish in the Update and Weekender changes in the handicap marks of horses who have a rating already? Time was when you'd get details of the marks allocated to horses entering the handicap system for the first time but not any more. It's of interest to me, for example, that last week's Newbury winner, Flambeau, gets an initial mark of 80. I think it's lenient but others may disagree. I only know the figure because I subscribe to Raceform Interactive - I wouldn't otherwise. You can argue that when she does run in a handicap for the first time her mark will appear in the Post but where does that leave someone who doesn't have time to study the form during the week? If he knew the mark in advance, he might note her down as a horse to follow (or oppose) and have a bet in a race he would have otherwise ignored. It's a small thing but it couldn't have a negative effect on betting turnover, could it?
Back to work...
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EC1
On a break
so what it appears is..using the 118 as first given for the Coventry is based on very little actual reality..only later can a true mark be put on that race
purely on speed figures..the Coventry ...CC = 132..guineas CC = 114
using back rated OHR's also puts CC on 10lb's higher in the Coventry
but I'm sure there is only me believes this
which is a good thing. as people that think CC is a better miler than 6f horse will lump on tomorrow
in fact..I'll change my mind..its clear that CC is a really good miler..so much better at that distance
purely on speed figures..the Coventry ...CC = 132..guineas CC = 114
using back rated OHR's also puts CC on 10lb's higher in the Coventry
but I'm sure there is only me believes this
which is a good thing. as people that think CC is a better miler than 6f horse will lump on tomorrow
in fact..I'll change my mind..its clear that CC is a really good miler..so much better at that distance
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Canford Cliffs is terrible value for this. I can understand people supporting him if he was 5/1+ for an each way touch but this race will be much more demanding than our 2000 was.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Fencing Master and Steinbeck for a Balydoyle 1-2, Xtension to out stay Canford Cliffs for 3rd.
Race 1845 - 2-y-o 6f maiden won by Sikeeb. Distances 1l, 5l, 2.75l, 1.25l, 0.5l. RPRs 84, 82, 66, 58, 54, 53.
Race 2078 - 2-y-o 6f maiden won by Strong Suit. Distances 1.25l, 6l, 2l, 6l, 1.75l. RPRs 96, 91, 73, 67, 49, 44.
Race 1966 - 3-y-o and up 6f maiden won by Carrie's Magic. Distances 0.75l, 2.25l, 0.75l, 3l, 2l. RPRs 76, 74, 66, 64, 54, 48. [First six home all 3-y-os carrying 8-12]
So, basically, 3lbs per length and no differentiation between juveniles and older horses.
EC1
On a break
Desert Orchid
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I've always done liewise but I've long toyed with the idea of reducing the figure a little. I might experiment with it more seriously this season since I seem to be punting much less.
EC1
On a break
I've plumped for Noll Wallop at the prices.
EC1
On a break
this race is going to be a real test isn't it? - it will be like a race AOB sets up for F&G...hell for leather pace...he will do that to try and negate CC
so you have to ask..is he setting it up for Steinbeck?..or something bred a little more stoutly...it could be questioned if S will actually stay what may be in effect a 10f race stamina wise..particularly FTO when he says he will come on.
i reckon a fierce pace is going to test Steinbeck..I think AOB is setting the race up to beat CC and suit Fencing Master..I don't think its a target for Steinbeck.
it will suit others though ..Noll will like a real test as a mile is a minimum for him
I can see Steinbeck running about 4 or 5 and AOB being really happy with the run.
so you have to ask..is he setting it up for Steinbeck?..or something bred a little more stoutly...it could be questioned if S will actually stay what may be in effect a 10f race stamina wise..particularly FTO when he says he will come on.
i reckon a fierce pace is going to test Steinbeck..I think AOB is setting the race up to beat CC and suit Fencing Master..I don't think its a target for Steinbeck.
it will suit others though ..Noll will like a real test as a mile is a minimum for him
I can see Steinbeck running about 4 or 5 and AOB being really happy with the run.