The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

BackHander said:
CC settled OK in the Coventry and Morny. Even Ballydoyle were complaining about the pace at Newmarket and it was the first time they tried to settle CC behind horses.
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Go back and look at the Coventry - he was running out of Hughes hands the whole way - even at Newbury when he was making his own running he was keen.

A slow run mile is about as far as CC will get - the idea that a strongly run mile will suit him does not sit with me. He is all speed. Whats more - he will have plenty of space to hang if he does not keep a straight line at The Curragh.
 
Agreed... He was pulling whole way. The fact that he was better than the rest was the reason he won. Xtension has been getting a whole load closer over further than he did in the Coventry.

Hannon is probably so blinded by his speed on the gallops that he's trying to make him into a miler, purely because he wants to win a classic with him. I'll stick my neck out and say that he won't win a G1 mile race this year. He could win the foret or the maurice de gheest though. They would be ideal for him.
 
Aragorn said:
Hannon is probably so blinded by his speed on the gallops that he's trying to make him into a miler, purely because he wants to win a classic with him.
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Hannon knows a thing or two about training Guineas winners over the past 40 years. He's not as totally daft as you make him out to be.
 
Not daft full stop....

Always a bit of sneering at Hannon on this forum i think...largely perhaps from those who were admaant that Paco boy wouldnt stay a mile

A £30000 horse is now arguably best miler in europe. Thats not daft...

Is there any other trainer who wins so many big prizes with so many inexpensive horses?
 
He's probably trying to make him into a miler because there is so little incentive to campaign him as a sprinter pre-Royal Ascot.
 
While I'm confident that come the end of the season Steinbeck will be the top 3yo miler, given that he had a setback and how much the Ballydoyle horses improve for a run this race make be too soon for him. I think Fencing Master could be the one on Saturday especially off a fast pace.

Both O'Brien horses should be ahead of Extension and I just don't see Canford Cliffs staying a fast run mile, and that is no slight on Hannon whom I greatly admire.
 
davidjohnson said:
He's probably trying to make him into a miler because there is so little incentive to campaign him as a sprinter pre-Royal Ascot.
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While I can see why that could be the case, I think we have to say that a fast finishing colt in an early season classic that has been placed at the distance, gets a mile just about as well as anything else. While he may well prove effective dropped back in trip, the simple fact is that his best rated performance to date has come at a mile. I would expect him to step up again on that performance in the Irish Guineas now that he is coming to his peak.
 
Like I said before - he was not fast finishing in the last couple of hundred yards or so - a furlong out he looked the likiest winner or certainly a horse that was going to finish in front of Dick Turpin. The fact that he did he look like passing that colt in the final few hundred yards tells me that the horse will be best suited to shorter trips.

Off the top of my head the likes of Minardi and Dutch Art looked like they got a mile alright in the Guineas but ended up racing over shorter. Canford Cliffs looks a similar sort to me....either way we will all know come Saturday.

SteveM said:
While I can see why that could be the case, I think we have to say that a fast finishing colt in an early season classic that has been placed at the distance, gets a mile just about as well as anything else. While he may well prove effective dropped back in trip, the simple fact is that his best rated performance to date has come at a mile. I would expect him to step up again on that performance in the Irish Guineas now that he is coming to his peak.
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I am not sure but Hughes said he got unbalanced in the Dip and he wouldn't be the first horse who as a consequence lost momentum hitting the rising ground.
 
I've no strong views on it Gareth to be honest. What I do find as a problem is this situation with Group 1 penalties from the previous season only applying to races won after August 31st. It's daft that Sariska can find races where Midday has to concede her 5 lb or where Total Gallery has to give lumps of weight away to Borderlescott just because his win was gained a few weeks later in the season.
 
SteveM said:
While I can see why that could be the case, I think we have to say that a fast finishing colt in an early season classic that has been placed at the distance, gets a mile just about as well as anything else. While he may well prove effective dropped back in trip, the simple fact is that his best rated performance to date has come at a mile. I would expect him to step up again on that performance in the Irish Guineas now that he is coming to his peak.
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would disagree strongly that his best performance was at a mile..using OHR's..his Coventry form puts him 6 lengths in front of a 108 [as then} OHR horse Xtension- gives him about a OHR of 126...in the guineas he was only 1 length in front of that horse and 0.5 length behind DT who has a OHR of 117..which makes CC's guineas OHR as 116

so at a mile his OHR is 10lbs below his best...so I can't see where his run in the guineas is better than the Coventry..in fact a whole world apart..to better his Coventry win in the guineas he needed to be winning the guineas by 3 or 4 lengths..so by losing by 2 he is 5 or 6 lengths shy of his best.

Clive..i'm not knocking Hannon..the simple fact is no wants a horse to be a sprinter..unless they have also won at a mile...so they will do owt to stretch them out..the problem is if you do that and it pays off..fine..Paco example...but if you try to stetch a sprinter and it fails at a mile..and you keep going at it...then its possible it won't win at shorter due to the training regime given to stretch it..when they dropped Paco Boy back to 6 last year you saw what happens when they try that.

If you stretch to a mile and the horse fails to stay..as is obvious to me on CC's greenham run..i would want him back at 6f and get something out of the horse..obviously i don't need to get a horse's stud value up ..so no pressure as there is on such as Hannon..but in perfect world..find the best trip and win some fookin races rather than getting a horse used to being beaten over a trip he is struggling at.

Hannon has to do what is best for stud..thats his job..unfortunately thats not always putting a horse over correct trip..ie 6f in this case
 
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Paco Boy has never been a sprinter - he was a top 7f horse and then showed he got a mile . His defeat in the July Cup had a lot more to do with the ride he was given than anything else.

Sprinter-milers like Thatch for example are born not made.
 
Ardross said:
Paco Boy has never been a sprinter - he was a top 7f horse and then showed he got a mile . His defeat in the July Cup had a lot more to do with the ride he was given than anything else.

Sprinter-milers like Thatch for example are born not made.
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nothing to do with the ride imo..he lacked speed because he had been trained for a mile

when he was running at 7f was the time to drop him back..not after he had months of training for a mile

its funny how no one wants a 6f win until they have a mile win on the board..then its a big clamour to demonstrate speed and stamina
 
EC1 said:
would disagree strongly that his best performance was at a mile..using OHR's..his Coventry form puts him 6 lengths in front of a 108 [as then} OHR horse Xtension- gives him about a OHR of 126...in the guineas he was only 1 length in front of that horse and 0.5 length behind DT who has a OHR of 117..which makes CC's guineas OHR as 116

so at a mile his OHR is 10lbs below his best...so I can't see where his run in the guineas is better than the Coventry..in fact a whole world apart..to better his Coventry win in the guineas he needed to be winning the guineas by 3 or 4 lengths..so by losing by 2 he is 5 or 6 lengths shy of his best.
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The official handicapper had him on 118 after the Coventry, and had him hitting 118 in the Guineas also. Xtension wasn't rated 108 until after he'd come out and won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
 
EC - that argument doesn't stand up in a million years. Using that kind of logic you could also say the likes of Fencing Master is a non-stayer, which is definitely not the case.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
The official handicapper had him on 118 after the Coventry, and had him hitting 118 in the Guineas also. Xtension wasn't rated 108 until after he'd come out and won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
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If there are OHR's for the Coventry..they don't show them in the form..is there another source?

Official handicaper didn't give 118 for the Coventry according to RP..CC did not have an OHR until 3yo according to RP..it was then 118 which would have taken into account the defeat at Deauville..without that defeat his OHR would been higher than 118

there's no no rating for Extension because they run 3 or 4 times before one is assigned..the rating given isn't just based on the race when it was alloted though

for example Jehu..ran 3 times before a rating was alloted..was then given 80..wasn't given 80 for the race he ran in though at the time..was beaten 18 lengths..was given 80 for form up to that time.

Xtension didn't suddenly become a 108 horse between his 3rd and 4th runs..he wouldn't have been far off that at Ascot. Even if only a 104 it still makes CC beating him 6 better than the guineas

the 118 for CC isn't for the run in the guineas though is it?..seeing as DT has only a 117 at the guineas point..how can he have a pound less than CC if its from that race?...its up to that race I would have thought.

If DT is a 117 horse in the guineas..then CC is less surely?
 
Hamm said:
EC - that argument doesn't stand up in a million years. Using that kind of logic you could also say the likes of Fencing Master is a non-stayer, which is definitely not the case.
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I'm not really seeing the logic that brings FM into it tbh

imo..just on the greenham race alone..CC clearly was spent in the last furlong..DT was just getting going..one of them stays 8f tother doesn't
 
If Canford Cliffs finishes third, what does that make all those behind him - non stayers as well?!

He may well be better over shorter, but that doesn't mean he doesn't stay a mile.
 
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