The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

Desert Orchid said:
I'll almost certainly rate the race via DT, meaning CC hasn't really improved at all since Ireland.
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Or didn't have to show improvement. The way he is ridden isn't conducisve to him showing how good he is.

Ardross - How can you quantify the effect of losing a shoe? I'd suggest in this latest case it made not a blind bit of difference.
 
Pulling a front shoe will have a definite effect. A hind shoe doesn't seem to make much difference but the horse will feel unbalanced in front as he tries to grab the ground. I notice straight away with a front shoe wheras you can get back onto a hard surface and miss the clunk-clunk before you realise a hind shoe has gone.
 
jinnyj said:
Pulling a front shoe will have a definite effect. A hind shoe doesn't seem to make much difference but the horse will feel unbalanced in front as he tries to grab the ground. I notice straight away with a front shoe wheras you can get back onto a hard surface and miss the clunk-clunk before you realise a hind shoe has gone.
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Given how he travelled and that he lost it on the bend, its unlikely it made much if any difference to the horse.
 
Well its only my guess as a rider! I have ridden horses in fast work when they have pulled a shoe off in front and it most definitly has an effect. They can still work ok but whats to say they wouldn't have worked better? Go for a run on grass (or another soft surface) in a pair of lightweight running shoes that you are used to. Then halfway, take one of your shoes off and tell me that it is equally easy. You won't have equal balance nor will you have equal grip. And I don't believe its any different with a horse. Yes he won - but he might have won better with 4 shoes on instead of 3!
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I can see Canford troubling the older milers; he's got something more in hand. How much is anyone's guess.
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He oozes class. He is an extraordinary colt. The way he uses acceleration off a fast pace is spectacular and decisive at any level. He is certainly already on a par with most of the older milers and likely to move past these in due course. Hopefully we'll see a lot more of him now that he's hit top form and he will improve again if kept in training next season.
 
SteveM said:
He oozes class. He is an extraordinary colt. The way he uses acceleration off a fast pace is spectacular and decisive at any level. He is certainly already on a par with most of the older milers and likely to move past these in due course. Hopefully we'll see a lot more of him now that he's hit top form and he will improve again if kept in training next season.
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You don't think he is near Goldikova?!

Whilst he is clearly the best of them, I still think the 3 year old milers are quite average, and more than half a stone behind the mare.
 
He's probably only a length or so off Paco Boy's very best, and with Goldikova and Lope de Vega staying in Deauville (how good will that Marois be?) and question marks over Rip Van Winkle, I don't see why he shouldn't be able to go close in the Sussex.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Guineas winner didn't run his race but well done to Steve who's stuck by Canford Cliffs throughout :)
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Thanks IS. It was also a vote of no confidence in Makfi. I'm sure we've seen his race in the Guineas and as I said before yesterday's race, I wouldn't be surprised if he was unplaced in this for which he was much too short a price. Let's be clear Makfi hasn't flopped, this is about as good as he is.

Eddery was very bullish about HOF before the Guineas and was hopeful of winning it. He is just one of the colts in behind Makfi who has improved past him.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
He's probably only a length or so off Paco Boy's very best, and with Goldikova and Lope de Vega staying in Deauville (how good will that Marois be?) and question marks over Rip Van Winkle, I don't see why he shouldn't be able to go close in the Sussex.
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Not sure about that - that puts the likes of Free Judgement, Heart of Fire, etc right up there and that doesn't seem right (watch the former romp in now).

Deauville - yes, should be really good. Am hoping to get across one way or another.
 
Hamm said:
You don't think he is near Goldikova?!

Whilst he is clearly the best of them, I still think the 3 year old milers are quite average, and more than half a stone behind the mare.
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I don't think that he has reached her (at her best) as yet (about half a stone is right). But I'd be reasonably confident that he will. Any improvement as an older horse (assuming they keep him in training) will see him there. His final absolute (with weight for sex stripped out) could well shade the mare.

Remember that Paco Boy's absolute rating will be higher than Goldikova's on yesterday's performance. At her best she may be a little better than that, but I think not much better.
 
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Gareth Flynn said:
He's probably only a length or so off Paco Boy's very best, and with Goldikova and Lope de Vega staying in Deauville (how good will that Marois be?) and question marks over Rip Van Winkle, I don't see why he shouldn't be able to go close in the Sussex.
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Infact I think you'll find that PB and Canford are already pretty much identical on ratings in the high 120s around 126/127. Hannon is no fool. When he says this is the best miler he's trained in 40 years, he's not having a laugh. It is Canford who has most improvement in him.

People were saying after the 2,000 Guineas that he wouldn't win a Group 1 this season. He has now won two, which is the tip of the iceberg.
 
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Canford Cliffs will almost certainly be retired this season.

Goldikova did not run near her best yesterday for one reason or another.
 
Galileo said:
Canford Cliffs will almost certainly be retired this season.

Goldikova did not run near her best yesterday for one reason or another.
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Sadly I fear you may be right be right about your first point. But I hope they decide to carry on with him.

While Goldikova hasn't run to her very best yesterday it is not right that she "did not run near her best". The trainer said she was in the form of her life and she's run a very good race. Paco will have run right up to his best form (perhaps beyond it) to give her a scare.
 
SteveM said:
Remember that Paco Boy's absolute rating will be higher than Goldikova's on yesterday's performance. At her best she may be a little better than that, but I think not much better.
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I think she ran a good 5lbs below what she'll be capable in the height of summer when she'll be held onto a tad longer.

Canford Cliffs is the sort of animal who'll never win by huge distances because he's all about travelling and unleashing that telling burst towards the end of the race.
 
Euronymous said:
I think she ran a good 5lbs below what she'll be capable in the height of summer when she'll be held onto a tad longer.

Canford Cliffs is the sort of animal who'll never win by huge distances because he's all about travelling and unleashing that telling burst towards the end of the race.
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I won't split hairs with you on this. 5lbs may be right, but I feel you may be a little over-generous. Personally I'd be more comfortable with 2-3lbs.
 
Hamm said:
Not sure about that - that puts the likes of Free Judgement, Heart of Fire, etc right up there and that doesn't seem right (watch the former romp in now).
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With regards to Free Judgement, it doesn't, because I don't think Canford had to put up a performance equal to yesterday's to win at the Curragh.

I'm open to Hearts Of Fire improving 3lbs or so yesterday.
 
Euronymous said:
Canford Cliffs is the sort of animal who'll never win by huge distances because he's all about travelling and unleashing that telling burst towards the end of the race.
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Entirely agree. As I said earlier "He is an extraordinary colt. The way he uses acceleration off a fast pace is spectacular and decisive at any level".
 
Hannon has come out and said Canford and Paco won't go to the Breeders Cup. Seems ridiculous to rule it out already, Canford would love a race like the BC Mile Turf.
 
Apparently there's enough big mile races for them all - Sussex Stakes, Jacques Le Marois, Moulin, QEII and Premio Vittorio Di Capua are the only open age/sex ones I can think of at the moment.
 
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