The 2000 Guineas (and beyond)

That's fair comment Euro but you'd think they'd have told everyone sooner. I think he's a cracking prospect.
 
He's got previous with this sort of thing though and like Ballydoyle punters should realise that the Guineas just isn't that important to some connections. Contrast that to Chapple-Hyam who I remember saying back in the Rodrigo/Dr Devious days that he'd rather win the 2000 than the Derby. That's the sort of attitude I want out of trainer's who look after Guineas prospects.
 
Hannon quoted as saying Canford Cliffs is the best he has trained - backed for the Guineas today (or cut anyway).
 
It's utter madness. I vow to never play Antepost every year but Fencing Master is leaping out at me at 20/1 now but I can't see him being any shorter than 7/1ish on the day so will just wait now.
 
Gamla Stan said:
It's utter madness. I vow to never play Antepost every year but Fencing Master is leaping out at me at 20/1 now but I can't see him being any shorter than 7/1ish on the day so will just wait now.
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He was the one I took out of the Dewhurst and not necessarily Steinbeck. He is just a very likeable horse...but think if St Nic turns up he is pretty sure to be the best of the Ballydoyle horses if they all give their running.
 
I'm not sure is the Canford Cliffs move all that crazy. Yes, he may well be an early season type, but can be forgiven the Morny run considering it was a muddling race, and besides, running so close to Arcano can't be bad form. And, Xtension (who he absolutely destroyed on the bridle) couldn't have franked the form better at both Goodwood and in the Dewhurst. Xtension may well have improved, but there is nothing to suggest Canford Cliffs couldn't as well (not taking this as a definite but no reason to suggest he wouldn't have).

I do think if Canford Cliffs was trained by AOB, Gosden, Stoute etc rather than Hannon, he wouldn't be so easily dismissed as an early season 2 year old. It's perfectly reasonable to expect to see a top class performer in the Coventry, a la Henrythenavigator.

He may stay or he may not, but there is no way he can be dismissed at this stage as a non-stayer - I wouldn't put him a million miles behind George Washington in terms of that the speed he showed at 2 suggesting him to be a doubtful stayer.

The vibes are also very positive, which could only increase confidence in having a bet. I haven't backed him (haven't backed anything) but I think he is probably the best, or close to the best bet at this stage. 6/1 is fair, but 10/1 was certainly worth a bet.

If you look at the other contenders, St Nicholas' Abbey looks solid, but the worry about him and the other AOB horses is needing the run (contrast this with the near certainty Hannon will have CC ready to run for it's life come Guineas day) - Fencing Master I couldn't back as he looked like a bull the other day. The Stoute horse has only run once, Arcano plans are up in the air, and it's unclear whether Godolphin will have a credible challenger or who that will be. Xtension looks worth a little each way at 25s as well.
 
Hamm said:
I do think if Canford Cliffs was trained by AOB, Gosden, Stoute etc rather than Hannon, he wouldn't be so easily dismissed as an early season 2 year old.
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That may be true, but the three you mention have a far better record of bringing horses back as 3-y-o's and having them progress throughout the season at Group 1 level. Whilst plenty on here are relatively dismissive of him in the Guineas, I'd tend to agree with them to be honest, but it isn't as though the market is. Remember Henrythenavigator was 14/1+ for his Guineas, but this sprint-bred son of Tagula that went missing in August is just 6/1.
 
Biggest worry I'd have with backing Canford Cliffs now is the possibility of fast ground.
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Do you mean slow? His best performance was on the fastest ground he raced on at Ascot. You wouldn't imagine quick ground would be a positive for the favourite either, tilting the balance even more.
 
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davidjohnson said:
That may be true, but the three you mention have a far better record of bringing horses back as 3-y-o's and having them progress throughout the season at Group 1 level. Whilst plenty on here are relatively dismissive of him in the Guineas, I'd tend to agree with them to be honest, but it isn't as though the market is. Remember Henrythenavigator was 14/1+ for his Guineas, but this sprint-bred son of Tagula that went missing in August is just 6/1.
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I see your point, but the reason to suggest the price isn't as bad as it seems is there is very, very little behind him in the betting who have a case to be made to back them, or is there something you like the look of?

Edited to say yes, those trainers do, but Hannon hasn't had as good a 2 year old as this in a while, so past comparisons could be a little unfair.
 
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Can't say there is, tbh, but the Guineas isn't a race I care to bet in really. It's complicated further these days by O'Brien. The prep of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman last year suggested both were in the Guineas to put them spot on for the rest of their season, rather than being A1 like GW, Henry, Rock of Gibraltar, Hawk Wing etc.
 
Hamm said:
Do you mean slow? His best performance was on the fastest ground he raced on at Ascot. You wouldn't imagine quick ground would be a positive for the favourite either, tilting the balance even more.
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No, I mean fast. Connections stated that he got badly jarred up at Deauville, which was probably the fastest ground he raced on.

Edit: make that "quite jarred up".
 
Inconclusive on pedigree whether he gets the trip but he is slight odds against. Tagula has had horses who have stayed a bit, but on both sides of CC's pedigree if he stayed the mile it would be a bit of a surprise. They have tried matings to stretch the family but they haven't really worked. The half sis to the dam was Pina colada who got a mile in the states. CCs dam was unraced by Marju and his progeny generally got a mile and further. If I had to guess I'd say he's a Sussex stakes horse.He'll fade in the last half furlong.

He did look the usual Hannon 2yr old to me last year but if they say he'll stay I'd have to give that a lot of weight.They generally know what they have. Still don't think he'd beat St Nic even if he does stay though.
 
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Meant to say regarding the Hannons view that he'll stay, if we find out soon that the horse has been sold we'll have to take that with a pinch of salt.
 
Sheikh said:
Inconclusive on pedigree whether he gets the trip but he is slight odds against. Tagula has had horses who have stayed a bit, but on both sides of CC's pedigree if he stayed the mile it would be a bit of a surprise. They have tried matings to stretch the family but they haven't really worked. The half sis to the dam was Pina colada who got a mile in the states. CCs dam was unraced by Marju and his progeny generally got a mile and further. If I had to guess I'd say he's a Sussex stakes horse.He'll fade in the last half furlong.

He did look the usual Hannon 2yr old to me last year but if they say he'll stay I'd have to give that a lot of weight.They generally know what they have. Still don't think he'd beat St Nic even if he does stay though.
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I'd basically agree with this but give more of a chance of him getting the mile. Canford Cliffs is by Tagula out of a Marju mare. Marju has an AWD of 9.2 for his progeny and Tagula an AWD of 7.1. The Dosage points total of just 10 is too low for an accurate reading, but as two of those points appear in the stamina wing of his profile (deriving from Busted, fourth generation) there is a fair chance that he will have sufficient stamina to get a mile.
 
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If CC did win the Guineas that would be a very unusual sireline for a 2000G winner to come from, as unusual as Pennekamps in fact.
 
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