The 2011 2-y-o thread.

Very encouraging debut by John Gosden's SHANTARAM (a full-brother to Gan Amhras, remember his third to Sea The Stars in the 2,000 Guineas) in the 3.20 at Sandown yesterday. Big and green, out the back early on and came with a strong late run just failing to get up. Stoutly bred he should do well over middle distances next season.


http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,457870_3,00.html

EL GRECO, who I mentioned earlier, I think on this thread, started a very short price here but looked one-paced when it mattered, looks to need about two miles and some hurdles already!!
 
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Not much promise in the race-course debut of MOONSHIP (by Halling) half-brother of WORKFORCE (by King's Best) in the first at Newmarket this afternoon.

In fairness the dam's (Soviet Moon) two other foals Extreme Impact (Rock of Gibraltar) and Spectacle (Dalakhani) have shown little except that they stay middle-distances rather slowly.

Lyric of Light and Fallen For You, who fought out the finish of the May Hill at Doncaster a couple of weeks back, take each other on again in the Group 1 Shadwell Fillies Mile at Newmarket 3.00 tomorrow.

2/1 the Godolphin yoke, 5/2 Johnny Gos's.
 
Got Lanfranco out of a bit of bother. I'm not sure he noticed Spencer on the rail whilst he was sat motionless on the outside.

I'd like to know what the best Godolphin 2yo filly is at home because that is probably the guineas winner.
 
Cant remember the last time Godoplhin top 2 yo turn into anything but a disappointing 3 yo. Blue bunting was not their top 2 yo last season.....
 
BEST TERMS looks to maintain her unbeaten record in the Cheveley Park and is 11/8 to do that.

The Group 2 Royal Lodge looks more open and it could be "which one of Ballydoyle's?"

I'm looking forward to the Haydock 4.30 and the second outing for SHANTARAM. A full-brother to Gan Amhras, SHANTARAM made a very promising debut when a strong-finishing second at Sandown earlier this month.
 
Oojooba looked very promising when winning a mile maiden on her debut at Haydock yesterday. Very well-bred, she came home 2.5l clear of a decent yardstick and her time was good relative to the other races on the card over the same trip. She's out of a Guineas winner but Monsun is the sire and the fact she started off at a mile suggests she'll be a middle distance type next year.
 
Encke was impressive at Newmarket yesterday and in a very decent time. He may go next for the Racing Post Trophy. I was surprised to see him quoted at 33/1 for next year's Derby and I've backed him accordingly.
 
Top sires of 2-y-os 2011, from the RP site:


STALLION WINNERS-RUNNERS WINS RUNS £ WIN PRIZE £ TOTAL PRIZE
Acclamation 26-60 43% 38 212 £333,035 £487,659
Red Clubs 24-61 39% 32 265 £144,581 £219,138
Dutch Art 23-41 56% 34 167 £239,697 £391,588
Holy Roman Emperor 23-71 32% 31 286 £329,700 £676,701
Dark Angel 21-58 36% 34 267 £156,846 £339,244
Exceed And Excel 18-56 32% 29 199 £251,740 £431,491
Royal Applause 16-45 36% 19 185 £68,489 £130,018
Kodiac 15-31 48% 17 133 £146,106 £193,674
Clodovil 15-32 47% 21 133 £360,337 £412,919
Kyllachy 15-32 47% 19 140 £112,654 £185,110
Excellent Art 14-43 33% 20 136 £123,748 £269,607
Amadeus Wolf 14-50 28% 20 206 £77,966 £132,393
Invincible Spirit 13-48 27% 16 160 £141,327 £221,573
Danehill Dancer 12-31 39% 13 89 £93,729 £148,623
Oasis Dream 12-40 30% 17 106 £461,046 £536,262
Galileo 12-47 26% 17 90 £372,760 £429,227
Street Cry 11-29 38% 16 71 £234,960 £249,566
Dansili 11-30 37% 16 66 £226,262 £377,591
Teofilo 11-34 32% 13 84 £128,979 £180,463
Choisir 10-33 30% 12 110 £80,257 £118,701
 
On the subject of Encke, what was the judge at Newmarket on yesterday? The winning margin was more like five lengths than the official three. I thought this sort of thing was in the past but it's clearly not.
 
Sixteen declared for the Middle Park,

Arnold Lane
Balty Boys
Bapak Chinta
B Fifty Two
Burwaaz
Casper Netcher
Crusade
Family One
Justineo
Lilbourne Lad
Rebellious Guest
Reply
Saigon
Saminder
Tough As Nails
West Leake Diman
 
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Camelot heads Racing Post Trophy field

BY RACINGPOST.COM STAFF 12:33PM 17 OCT 2011

CAMELOT, ante-post joint favourite for the Investec Derby, heads the nine two-year-olds left in Saturday's Racing Post Trophy at Monday's confirmation stage.


The son of Montjeu won his only start at Leopardstown in July and is a general 16-1 chance for Epsom. Trainer Aidan O'Brien also has Royal Lodge Stakes winner Daddy Long Legs in the race along with Learn and Tibet.
Two colts have been supplemented for the race, the Jim Bolger-trained Zip Top who carries the colours of Sheikh Mohammed, and Godolphin's Encke from Mahmood al Zarooni's yard.

The John Gosden-trained Fencing, as short as 16-1 for the Derby with Totesport, also stands his ground.
 
gus said:
On the subject of Encke, what was the judge at Newmarket on yesterday? The winning margin was more like five lengths than the official three. I thought this sort of thing was in the past but it's clearly not.
Click to expand...

There was a glitch with the photo finish equipment which effectively 'crimped' the image between the winner and the second. It was picked up when the time back to the second horse indicated the winning distance couldn't be 3 lengths, and an official correction has been issued (RP result now shows 4.5 lengths).

It has been, and continues to be, investigated as obviously there was an impact on spread betting, but it appears to have been a one-off incident.
 
That's interesting. When you say the "time back to the second horse", do you mean this was independently checked (e.g. off video)? Just asking because I thought those times were taken from the photo.
 
I believe (although I wasn't privy to the actual process, so don't quote me) that the overall time for the race didn't correspond to the distances recorded, which initially prompted the investigation. The distances between each horse were then compared against the recorded times, which indicated the problem was between winner and second. Obviously this could have been an issue with either the timing equipment or the photo finish equipment - the latter was looked at first and close investigation showed that the image had corrupted/'crimped' (obviously not physically; it's a digital image, but I'm not technical so that's how it was explained to me) slightly at a point between first and second. Not at all obvious under normal examination, so I'm told.
 
Only 6 stay in the Racing Post Trophy:

Camelot (J O'Brien) 11/8
Encke (F Dettori) 6/1
Fencing (W Buick) 3/1
Learn (C O'Donoghue) 16/1
Talwar (J Fortune) 25/1
Zip Top (K Manning) 10/1
------------------------

I'd like to see my beloved Learn win this but Camelot seems to have been backed in very aggressively by "those in the know".
 
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I'm a big layer of Camelot:

a) Why has he not run since his debut?
b) Beating All Approved who is rated 76 amounts to no form whatsoever
c) Fencing is rated 105 and looks to have further improvement

The bookmakers are asking us to take 11/8 that he can find and 25lbs plus improvement from his debut from which he has not been sighted since (100 days ago). I would suspect he has had problems since and there were rumours of his legs being in ice the morning of his debut. That may be here-say but either way there is a fair load of hype behind this horse and I'm willing to lay him for the lot at current prices.
 
I don't know how to phrase this without feeling a tosser but I'll go on anyway! I met a man very high up in the Coolmore pecking order at a wedding so it was a chance encounter. Anyway, after a bit of BS talk I said I'd ask him for a tip as I'll probably never be in his company again! He said that Camelot will win the 2012 Derby. A lot can happen between now and then but I've been backing him for that since. It sounds foolish I know and I realise his form is not up to much so far but this weekend will determine whether I should burn my AP dockets or dream on!
 
The amount of money for him seems to suggest he's a bit special.

Having said that I think Fencing could be a bit special as well and i'd be inclined to side with him at this stage.
 
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