The 2014 World Hurdle

But now you are making the assumption that Zarkander will stay?
You can't have it both ways!

I took 8's with Ladbrokes after she won New Year's Day.
 
No I'm not, I'm saying I would rather back him at 10/1....I'd back her at 10/1...not 6/4
 
Frankel said:
Over 3 miles on that day, debatable as Annie has not raced over that trip. VLV ran the race of her life.
I've heard all this before, Grand Crus, Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky. He dealt with all of them easily.

I do love Annie and she is some mare, but the notion that VLV got within a couple of lengths is a guide, is not the true extent of how much he could have won by.
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That was 2 years ago, his comeback run showed he is nowhere near that level anymore.

Ruby has said he reckons that ANY gelding would struggle to give her 7 lb
 
tiggers1972 said:
That was 2 years ago, his comeback run showed he is nowhere near that level anymore.

Ruby has said he reckons that ANY gelding would struggle to give her 7 lb
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As I say, if he is not anywhere near his best, and she stays, she'll win.
But maybe his last run wasn't as bad as we thought. Nicholls is the master.

For what it's worth, I think he'll run way below his best. Annie will stay, and Annie will win. Bucks will be 2nd or 3rd.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Does she look like she won't stay?
At HQ on New Year's Day she won on desperate ground hard on the steel, another half a mile on better ground would be no bother.
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When the ground is desperate the races are run at a more sedate gallop....She will have to go 3 mile up a hill twice at a quicker pace than she has had to in those races. I know she can cope with it over lesser distance as she did against Defy Logic and sustain it....not worth 6/4 to see if she can cope...
 
Everyone reckons that Zarkandar has run below his best this season to date but I disagree.
He is in consistent form and has run his races. His effort against Melodic Rendezvous should be used as guide to the chances of Annie Power.
MR is rated 163 after beating Z by 1L. Z I rate 162.
AP beat Z by 8l++ I will add 4L to make it 12L ridden out. She received a 7lb mares all.
Therefore her bare rating is 166 -I use 0.9lb PL @ 3M. (adj.173) at 2 1/2 M
I currently have Big Bucks on 168 - on his comeback run with likely improvement maybe 173. It will be that close I think.
If AP doesn't stay the course/distance she will lose 4L up the hill and Big Bucks will win by a comft. margin.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
That was 2 years ago, his comeback run showed he is nowhere near that level anymore.

Ruby has said he reckons that ANY gelding would struggle to give her 7 lb
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His comeback run showed all the signs of a horse that had a year off.

Ruby didn't state it over 3 miles, cause he doesn't know she will stay...
 
baracouda said:
Everyone reckons that Zarkandar has run below his best this season to date but I disagree.
He is in consistent form and has run his races. His effort against Melodic Rendezvous should be used as guide to the chances of Annie Power.
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Did you calculate anything for Zarkandar improving on better ground or that MR is actually a few Lb better for heavier ground...

Just a thought Woody
 
I have a one size fits all theory with a 'tweak' . It seems to work out more often than not.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Does she look like she won't stay?
At HQ on New Year's Day she won on desperate ground hard on the steel, another half a mile on better ground would be no bother.
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They said that about Lady Rebecca - who cantered all over geldings at Cheltenham over 2m 4f on a number of occasions. Yet she did not get 3 miles.
 
Ardross said:
They said that about Lady Rebecca - who cantered all over geldings at Cheltenham over 2m 4f on a number of occasions. Yet she did not get 3 miles.
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Lady Rebecca had more stamina in her pedigree than AP too
 
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Only One Mare to win the race and she should have been disqualified
 
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tiggers1972 said:
She was extending her lead the further they went on New Year's Day.
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ZARKANDAR is 2 wins and a second from 3 starts in heavy ground, I think it,s fair to say the horse is good in heavy ground.

ANNIE POWER was powering away on soft ground over 2 mile 4 when she whooped ZARKANDAR. It would appear the horse has an outstanding chance of doing the 3 miles on goodish ground:blink:
 
The difference is Nicholls is running the other horses in the race that suits them rather than Mullins running horses in the races that suit Hurricane Fly .
 
Ardross said:
The difference is Nicholls is running the other horses in the race that suits them rather than Mullins running horses in the races that suit Hurricane Fly .
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Cobblers.

Mullins has merely brought the illumination to Ricci - she can't beat Hurricane Fly, but she can beat Big Buck's.
 
ANNIE POWER will run in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival because that is where connections think she will have the best chance of top-level glory, according to jockey Ruby Walsh who is optimistic the star mare will have enough stamina for the race.


However, Annie Power, who races in the colours of Susannah Ricci, has yet to run over the World Hurdle trip of 3m with the 2m4½f she won over at Cheltenham in January the furthest she has tried. "I think she will stay," Walsh said on Monday. "Her pedigree is all stamina.


She's out of an Old Vic mare and she's by Shirocco. Who's never sired a 3 mile winner.


"The further she goes the more it'll suit her, but you can't be certain until she goes and does it. "She's never run over three miles, but things had to be considered and that's where we feel she has her best chance". "Willie asked my opinion and everything had to be weighed up and we all felt it is the right race for her".


"There are four or five outstanding horses in the Champion Hurdle and maybe two, possibly three, in the World Hurdle so you weigh up your options and take your chance."


Walsh, who was speaking to Racing UK, will be coming up against Big Buck's for the first time and rates him highly. "He's a hell of a good horse and he'll be very hard to beat," added Walsh, the winningmost rider at the festival".


"I guess I've had ten months to come to terms that I wouldn't be riding him so I've put that out of my mind." But it wont go away especially up the hill...
 
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