The 2015 2-y-o thread.

Colin.

Its based on total winners opposed to individual winners.
 
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mhart221 said:
Not strictly the right place but has anyone in here got any views on the Brocklesby? Naturally working out a race of this type is heavily aided by looking at pedigrees and I quite like Powerallied of Richard Fahey's right now.
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I know someone in the yard. I'll ask.
 
I like the look of First Bombardment in the Brocklesby. It's a fancy though, no info behind him.
 
Going for Frozen Power to be Leading First Season Sire by wins with Paddy Power @ 10\1.

Small stakes for fun and hopefully keep an interest through the season.

Reason - 1st one out of the blocks on Saturday!

Love this thread every year, well done Colin.
 
Yep, it was, sorry guys - my fault :D

Some of the latest odds having changed after my bets being placed are:
Zoffany 5/2 (from 10/3)
Dream Ahead 11/4 (from 5/2)
Lilbourne Lad 5/1 (from 7/1)
Poet's Voice 5/1 (from 10/3)
Roderic O'Connor 16/1´(from 14/1)
Dick Turpin 50/1 (from 33/1)

Canford Cliffs (3/1), Frozen Power (7/1) and Pour Moi (16/1) are all unchanged.

As a matter of warning though: it may well be that some of the higher bets may ultimately be better off with Paddy Power, as RaceBets did accept small bets only at the original odds.

I got 300 € only at the original 10/3 for Zoffany plus aother 875 € at 3/1, now 5/2.
I got 200 € only at the original 7/1 for Lilbourne Lad plus another 200 € at 11/2, now 5/1.

I think I'll cover myself with one more stallion, will wait for odds going up though or some early winners under the belt in case odds remain unchanged.
 
Three 2-y-o races scheduled for today.

The Brocklesby 1.25 kicks the season off at Doncaster and a pretty uninspiring event it appears to be.

Bill Turner traditionally has one ready for this and he has trained the winner 4 times in the last 10 years and 6 times in all. His representative in this edition is Just That Lord, there is quite a bit of speed in the family and I'm struggling to find an alternative.

General Alexander might have been a possibility but Brian Ellison's record with first-time-out 2-y-os is discouraging.

Frozen Power's first runner, Rupert Boy, out of a winner-producing mare is another possibility.

Richard Hannon introduced the smart Tiggy Wiggy in last year's running of the Kempton 1.45, Anwar is his runner today.

Again I'm struggling for an alternative, did consider the Big Bad Bob filly, Ojai, but Dean ivory's record with 2-y-o debutantes is even worse than Brian Ellison's.

The final 2-y-o event is at Chelmsford 2.55.

Lilbourne Lad has his first runner in the form of Lil's Joy who at the moment narrowly heads the market. I'm looking at the Mark Johnston-trained Buratino here, more solidly bred than the favourite and his trainer's record first-time-out is reasonable.
 
Outstanding start to his 2-y-o season for Mark Johnston winning all three races yesterday. Ravenhoe had to battle hard for his narrow victory in the Brocklesby but Rah Rah and Buratino won with a certain amount of ease and could well win again.

Just the one 2-y-o race today, the first at the Curragh 2.10. On breeding the three I like best are the Raven's Pass runners, Taexali and La Tendresse and the Street Cry colt, Tribal Beat. The negative is that both sires' progeny do better on better ground.
 
It didn't look a vintage brocklesbury but just the fact they have a run under their belt will count over the next few weeks. Clearly the main thing to note yesterday was that Johnston won all 3 2yo races.
 
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Latest odds as per this morning (best odds by horse in bold):

RaceBets
Canford Cliffs 9/4
Zoffany 5/2
Dream Ahead 11/4
Lilbourne Lad 7/2
Poet's Voice 5/1
Frozen Power 8/1
Pour Moi 16/1
Roderic O'Connor 20/1
Dick Turpin 50/1

Paddy Power
Zoffany 9/4
Canford Cliffs 11/4
Lilbourne Lad 10/3
Dream Ahead 7/2
Frozen Power 13/2
Poet's Voice 10/1
Pour Moi 12/1
Roderic O'Connor 16/1
Dick Turpin 50/1
 
Here are the figures from the 2013 Return of Mares for those that covered a reasonable number of mares.

Canford Cliffs Covered 179 Living Colts 51 Living Fillies 58
Dick Turpin 82 29 30
Dream Ahead 125 57 36
Frozen Fire 56 17 10
Frozen Power 151 45 41
Lilbourne Lad 123 46 40
Poets Voice 134 50 38
Pour Moi 134 36 34
Roderic O’Connar 156 45 42
Zoffany 173 42 52

These figures can be inaccurate. Colts and fillies may have subsequently died. Some mares owners are slow to record foals. Overseas sires (eg Wootton Bassett) show only small coverings but may have a lot of foals that at the time of RoM may not have been registered.

Having said that Roderic O'Connar may be a good outsider
 
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Eleanora Duse said:
Here are the figures from the 2013 Return of Mares for those that covered a reasonable number of mares.
Having said that Roderic O'Connar may be a good outsider
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Certainly, considering the figures and the odds!

In general I would rate all these figures quite a bit on the low side though - percentages of living foals range from 48 to 74 % whereas most are considerably below 70 %.
 
These are the figures from the November 2013 edition. There are always a number of 'no returns' which may later be living foals. There are also a number listed as Living Produce Aboard, which I haven't included.

Please note that in the edit above I've added in Frozen Power (my mistake)!! As an an example of what I said here he has a whopping 48 no returns.
 
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Eleanora Duse said:
Frozen Power (my mistake)!! As an an example of what I said here he has a whopping 48 no returns.
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Yes, good example - thanks for taking a night shift to explain :)

Taking into account no returns and - I guess you meant living produce abroad - these figures become more realistic.

With new stallions marketing is ever so important so studs do everything reasonably possible to get as many mares in foal, to the auction rings and into training. Later on racecourse performance takes over a bit becoming more important.

If you see the likes of Canford Cliffs and Zoffany having covered just under 200 mares a return of just under/over 100 living foals - let alone how many will not make it into training, onto a racecourse or into the winner's enclosure - would be appalling.

In think a new stallion without fertility problems should easily be able to reach at least close to 80 % living foals, whilst majority of Wetherby's RoM figures on our 9 stallions talked about were 50 to 60% - so they need interpretation, as you explained.
 
Here's more then (sorry Colin for using up your thread).
As well as the figures above for Canford Cliffs he had 7 produce living aboard, 6 foals that were dead,aborted or slipped, 11 of the mares he covered exported, 4 mares who died in foal, 20 barren mares and finally 37 no returns.
If people want it I'll supply this for others, but you'll have to buy Colin a pint first.
 
Eleanora Duse said:
As well as the figures above for Canford Cliffs he had 7 produce living aboard, 6 foals that were dead,aborted or slipped, 11 of the mares he covered exported, 4 mares who died in foal, 20 barren mares and finally 37 no returns.
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Thanks!

Without having the RoM available I'm not sure if the number of 184 mares Canford Cliffs covered (as posted by LBM on page 1 of this thread) tie to the same covering season - I just hope it does.

If so the figures make sense.

184 mares covered less 37 no returns leave 147 mares less 20 barren mares leave 127 of 147 mares in foal = 86.39 % of the reported mares - quite good for a first season sire.

Of the 127 mares in foal 4 mares died in foal and 6 foals were dead, aborted or slipped leaving 117 living produce of 147 mares covered = 79.59 % living foals.

I'll better ignore the exported mares and foals as there may be double counts in there and it would not say anything about the number of living foals a stallion has produced in a season. Greater worry could be the 'no returns', these may well be a majority of no living foals for lack of further reporting, but that's just speculative.

The above figures do not quite tie to the 109 living colts and fillies you mentioned for CC - most likely due to the exports you mentioned and may be the 184 covered mares were from last season instead of 2012.

I don't think we'd need to dig any deeper or expand it to the other stallions, too - save yourself the workload and we don't want Colin be 'p... off' anyway for hijacking his thread.

Thanks for your exploits though!
 
Think the figures are the same year because according to 2014 having covered 109 mares the previous year he produced 29 colts and 29 fillies. But 23 no returns.

Fertility is an interesting area. Poor old Jim Phillips more than once moaned that saying you have a fertile stallion often means owner-breeders will send difficult mares to your stallion. His Great Nephew was a victim of that, but in between spilling his seed on barren ground he did get a couple of useful horses.
 
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