The 2015 2-y-o thread.

Only the one race today, the opener at Musselburgh 1.55.

Can Mark Johnston maintain his unbeaten record with 2-y-os with Sixth Sense (Shamardal out of a Sadler's Wells mare) or will the experience of First Bombardment, narrowly beaten in the Brocklesby last week, count for more?

The race would appear to be between these two.
 
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Johnston must have a good idea where his stands with first Bombardment through the winner of the brocklesby..currently FB is 1.9 and 6 sense 3.1..you would have to think that 6 sense needs to see some support from that price if they do think 6 sense can beat it. In these circumstances where one trainer has an angle on another its not unusual to see the forecast prices alter a lot..at the moment the difference beteween fc price and actual pricae are saying FB wins
 
EC1 said:
Johnston must have a good idea where his stands with first Bombardment through the winner of the brocklesby..currently FB is 1.9 and 6 sense 3.1..you would have to think that 6 sense needs to see some support from that price if they do think 6 sense can beat it. In these circumstances where one trainer has an angle on another its not unusual to see the forecast prices alter a lot..at the moment the difference beteween fc price and actual pricae are saying FB wins
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Winner looks useful. Trainer knows the time of day with 2yos and immediately said 'Coventry horse'.


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BennyB said:
Winner looks useful. Trainer knows the time of day with 2yos and immediately said 'Coventry horse'.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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looked decent..interesting how the fav drifted to above evens ..johnstons didn't shorten in response..

still think the chelmsford maiden will prove better than the brocklesby..maybe thats the first sign of it
 
BennyB said:
Winner looks useful. Trainer knows the time of day with 2yos and immediately said 'Coventry horse'.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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Hopefully he stays with today's owner, whilst its must be very difficult to turn down a big wedge it is refreshing to see the less familiar colours doing well.
 
BennyB said:
Winner looks useful. Trainer knows the time of day with 2yos and immediately said 'Coventry horse'.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hopefully he stays with today's owner, whilst its must be very difficult to turn down a big wedge it is refreshing to see the less familiar colours doing well.
 
I wouldn't have thought that the Fretwell colours were that "less familiar" but that's neither here nor there.

Tribesman won well enough and trainer stated afterwards that he was expecting it to win and that the horse is probably an Ascot (Coventry) runner! Seems to me that we often here this from trainers about their early season 2-y-os.

Of the others, a bit early to condemn a horse but First Bombardment's form figures are 22?, the Johnston runner, Sixth Sense ran a touch green and the 50/1 shot Zephyr Breeze was making ground at the finish and there should be a race somewhere that he can win.

On to today's race, a five-runner affair at Kempton 1.40. Just That Lord fourth in the Doncaster Brocklesby reappears and hoping to give a little respectability to that form and the other previous runner, Anwar, was second at Kempton last Saturday. One of the first-time-outers, Rosealee, might be of interest by Zebedee out of Why Now, four of her five offspring have won, winning ten races in total.
 
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Colin Phillips said:
On to today's race, a five-runner affair at Kempton 1.40. Just That Lord fourth in the Doncaster Brocklesby reappears and hoping to give a little respectability to that form and the other previous runner, Anwar, was second at Kempton last Saturday. One of the first-time-outers, Rosealee, might be of interest by Zebedee out of Why Now, four of her five offspring have won, winning ten races in total.
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Tawakkol has to be a bit suspect in this. Firebreak's don't appeal much as 2yo on the AW. Overall strike is 3/68 with a poor AE of 0.48. At Kempton they are 1/20 AE 0.68. FTO on the sand 0/14 with just 1 placing. Doesn't inspire confidence.

Just That Lord looks decent here. Avonbridge does fine with 2yo on the AW. Even though he has a lowish % strike of just 7%..the AE is 0.90...so lots of them are no hopers which highlights why % strike rates are not indicative of much on their own. The slight neg is that at Kempton only has an AE of 0.57 and a low strike of 4%.

The positive here is that Avonbridge's aren't great FTO..AE 0.63..so can be expected to improve for their debuts above a normal level..an improvement on that Donny form should be enough here

Anwar Dark Angel does ok on the sand with 2yo..AE 0.87. Again not strong at Kempton with an AE of 0.66..does better at Wolves. Colts + geldings do better than the fillies..fillies AE 0.58.

So breeding wise all 3 have doubts..particularly Tawakkul. The other two have one run a piece and i prefer JTL's run at Donny to the maiden that Anwar ran in at Kempton. Anwars race was disappointing sectional wise off what wasn't a real test early on

I'd be favouring Just That Lord to take this.
 
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Colin Phillips said:
Well, Rosealee ain't very big but she showed plenty of courage to out-battle the other two in the drive to the line and win @ 16/1.
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hope you were on Colin..i wasn't even after writing this

So breeding wise all 3 have doubts..particularly Tawakkul. The other two have one run a piece and i prefer JTL's run at Donny to the maiden that Anwar ran in at Kempton. Anwars race was disappointing sectional wise off what wasn't a real test early on

none of them really appealed and i've already said i don't rate the brocklesby form...should have widened my net a bit..instead went for a default horse from a race i don't value much..what a plum
 
Won a maiden, unplaced in three other starts, retired to stud in Kentucky on the strength of his breeding (full-brother to Storm Bird).
 
Only four runners for today's only 2-y-o race the Musselburgh 3.55.

They are all having their first run and nothing in their breeding instils much confidence.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Only four runners for today's only 2-y-o race the Musselburgh 3.55.

They are all having their first run and nothing in their breeding instils much confidence.
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i get sire negatives for all bar Powerallied....apart from the sire stuff Fahey is 3/7 with babies here at this time of year..had a go at 2.44
 
Another small field (four) for the only 2-y-o race of the day at Cork 2.20; is there a demand for early 2-y-o races these days?

Still the race is of some interest with Elusive Pimpernel having his first runner, the dam is yet to have a runner.

Of the four, Lilliard looks the most likely, by Shamardal out of Idilic Calm. The dam is by Indian Ridge and her offspring include, Calming Influence, a winner on his 2-y-o debut at York and going on to achieve a RPR of 118 when winning a group 2 over a mile at Meydan.
 
very small fields Col aren't they?

only one i can't find a breeding negative about is the outsider of the 4..Bracklin Princess..had a bit of 15.0 on this earlier..surely a rick.
 
The unpronounceable one well enough at Cork yesterday but the form probably not up to much.

Another small field (five) today for the Lingfield 3.10, two of them have had a run already but didn't show a great deal; Lingfield Lass and Ojai behind a Mark Johnston winner at Kempton. They may well suffer a similar fate this afternoon as Johnston has Rogue's Gallery, a Fast Company colt, in the field and Hannon has a runner in the form of Ower Flyer.

Ojai has a reasonable pedigree and perhaps I'll be having a small each-way interest.
 
Colin Phillips said:
The unpronounceable one well enough at Cork yesterday but the form probably not up to much.

Another small field (five) today for the Lingfield 3.10, two of them have had a run already but didn't show a great deal; Lingfield Lass and Ojai behind a Mark Johnston winner at Kempton. They may well suffer a similar fate this afternoon as Johnston has Rogue's Gallery, a Fast Company colt, in the field and Hannon has a runner in the form of Ower Flyer.

Ojai has a reasonable pedigree and perhaps I'll be having a small each-way interest.
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Rogues Gallery will be better for a run imo Col..poor FTO record..think Hannon will take this with Ower Fly
 
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