The 2015 2-y-o thread.

Ower Fly almost won for you, EC!

Got the better of the Johnston horse but the complete outsider came from nowhere.

From the brief glimpse I got of the runners the Hannon horse looked the part and I'm reasonably sure he's capable of winning races.

My choice Ojai was quite well supported in the market and showed plenty of pace until running out of puff inside the final furlong.

No 2-y-o races today.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Ower Fly almost won for you, EC!

Got the better of the Johnston horse but the complete outsider came from nowhere.

From the brief glimpse I got of the runners the Hannon horse looked the part and I'm reasonably sure he's capable of winning races.

My choice Ojai was quite well supported in the market and showed plenty of pace until running out of puff inside the final furlong.

No 2-y-o races today.
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aye a lot more right than wrong Col..getting the front end market horses correct is the main thing in the long run...some good money to be made in these early season 2yo maidens..most punters have no interest in them..which automatically makes them worthy of study..in fact..on the turf they are probably the best area of all due to the lack of smack you in the face info available.

i'll be glad when the flat starts..has it started yet?:)
 
Eleanora Duse said:
Here are the figures from the 2013 Return of Mares for those that covered a reasonable number of mares.

Canford Cliffs Covered 179 Living Colts 51 Living Fillies 58
Dick Turpin 82 29 30
Dream Ahead 125 57 36
Frozen Fire 56 17 10
Frozen Power 151 45 41
Lilbourne Lad 123 46 40
Poets Voice 134 50 38
Pour Moi 134 36 34
Roderic O’Connar 156 45 42
Zoffany 173 42 52

These figures can be inaccurate. Colts and fillies may have subsequently died. Some mares owners are slow to record foals. Overseas sires (eg Wootton Bassett) show only small coverings but may have a lot of foals that at the time of RoM may not have been registered.

Having said that Roderic O'Connar may be a good outsider
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Saw a couple of RO'Cs entered for the next few days, so wanted to get on the RaceBets 20/1 before some shrewd money comes in for it.

As said before though - RaceBets are 'sh....' themselves quite easily and instead of the 140 I wanted to put on they offered 40 only for 20/1.

Ignored it and dropped my RO'C betting intent altogether - nevertheless Racebets cut the odds to 16/1 just because of asking for the bet.

Due to the large number of offspring my main cover bet was for CC though - wanted to put on 900 at 9/4 but got offered 400 only at these odds. Did accept these 400 for 9/4 and wanted to put the remainder on at changed odds of 2/1 and got a reply odds just changed again to 7/4. Ignored the 7/4 though and did stay put for the time being with my 400 at 9/4.

Latest RaceBets odds after my bet:

RaceBets
Canford Cliffs 7/4 (from 9/4)
Zoffany 5/2
Dream Ahead 3/1 /from 11/4)
Lilbourne Lad 7/2
Poet's Voice 11/2 (from 5/1)
Frozen Power 10/1 (from 8/1)
Pour Moi 16/1
Roderic O'Connor 16/1 (from 20/1)
Dick Turpin 50/1

PaddyPower would laugh at this imitation of a bookie, unfortunately Racebets are the only one still offering 'first season sires'-bets - for the time being PaddyPower took it off altogether yesterday. May be they will come back with odds a bit further into the season
 
By the way - comparing the current RaceBets odds to the PP ones before they got taken off Frozen Power looks interesting for those who fancy him - if they can get a decent amount offered to bet at these odds.

Paddy Power had him at 13/2, RaceBets did have him at 8/1 and pushed him out to 10/1 after my CC bet. This is the only stallion of the top 9 on offer where the RaceBets odds are considerably higher than the PP one - for Zoffany and Lilbourne Lad RaceBets is slightly better, Pour Moi too, for Roderic O'Connor and Dick Turpin they are the same.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Three races, fifteen runners in total, no new stallions represented and I can't see anything that spurs my interest.
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only just had a look at the 2.05 at southwell..thought i'd found a bit of value looking at the RP forecast...then looked at betfair:(..New Road Side looks bet on the sire stats in this but sadly is only 3.15 now.
 
won easy..gives me a bit of cash to throw away at Aintree.

The sire stats re Southwell make it one of the best courses to back 2yo at Col..some good opportunities over the coming weeks i think.
 
Tomorrows 2.05 race comes out interesting on the breeding ratings.

F/c

<tbody>
[TD="width: 198"] Horse

<tbody>
7/1WILLYTHECONQUEROR113
20/1WICKED WOO109
2/1JET SETTING88
33/1INDIAN GOLD85
5/2GIN IN THE INN71
9/4TWISTING HAY69

[TD="width: 74"] Rating [/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]

</tbody>

I'll probably dutch the top two at the odds. The f/c fav Jet Setting isn't low down enough in the list to be a lay.. but Twisting Hay would fall into that category.
 
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Wolverhampton 7.20 is the only 2-y-o race today, none of the runners have had a run and I can't find anything decent on the breeding side. If arm was severely twisted perhaps the bottom one, Zahrat Narjis.
 
Two races today.

Windsor 1.40 and the first runner for first-season-sire, Lilbourne Lad who could be one of the better ones of this year's collection. No great confidence in his runner today, Handy Talk.

In the Redcar 2.20, Soul City another first-crop sire has his first runner with Be Bop Tango.
 
BennyB said:
I would just like to say that I appreciate the effort being put into this thread. Thanks Colin and EC.
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cheers Benny..Col's efforts here over the years have made the thread what it is.

Only rated one race today..2.20 Redcar

SECRET AMBITION
ASTLEY HALL92
BE BOP TANGO84
RISK ADJUSTED83
ASSOCIATION78
RUN RIO RUN72
MAJESTIC BOND
61
BLACK DIAMOND GIRL53

<tbody>
[TD="width: 39"] 97 [/TD]

</tbody>


Secret Ambition has to overcome Johnston's poor recent record at the track with 2yo's. His last 28 2yo's here have given just 1 win. I don't hold much store by this being a negative though as his overall record with 2yo's here is reasonably good going back over 10 years..could just be a blip. If you look at the 28 that ran..just 7 were 4/1 or less with 1 winning and 4 placing.

Be Bop Tango looks a reasonable each way bet.
 
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Colin Phillips said:
Great start for Lilbourne Lad as Handytalk gets up on the line.

An 11/1 winner missed!:thumbsdown:
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Didn't back it either - in the end it's only 1 win out of roughly 40 wins required in a season. I am quite happy though about the 7/1 and the 11/2 I got for Lilbourne Lad as First Season Sire champ. He was nowhere near these odds in the last few days (7/2 with RaceBets last couple of days and 11/4 at the moment, still no longer available with Paddy Power after having taken the bet off some week ago).
 
Canford Cliffs has his first runner with Thee And Me in the Beverley 2.30.

The dam's only previous runner didn't set the world on fire.

Lilbourne Lad has two runners today but again nothing in the dam makes you want to get involved.
 
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At Newmarket yesterday Gifted Master, a son of Kodiac, looked quite impressive coming away from the field up the hill. Over at Beverley another son of Kodiac, Halsall, found the stiff five just beyond him and was outstayed close home.

In the first at Newmarket today Dream ahead has his first runner with Hillside Dream, interesting runner in the race is the Distorted Humour filly, Sense Of Fun, a full sister to a Group 1 winner in France.

Lilbourne Lad has two representatives in the Ripon 1.55, Hyland Heather and Richter Scale, both are at the head of the early market.
 
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