The 2015 Crabbies Grand National
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Hasn't Davy broken his arm anyway?
TheBear
At the Start
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- Sep 23, 2013
- Messages
- 1,831
You're right, he has. Forgot about that.
I've backed The Druids Nephew, New Alco, Chance du Roy, and Mon Parrain.
Rocky Creek, Alvarado, Balthazar King, Pineu de Re, and Shutthefrontdoor are all obvious dangers but not much value as I can see them placing rather than winning.
Rocky Creek, Alvarado, Balthazar King, Pineu de Re, and Shutthefrontdoor are all obvious dangers but not much value as I can see them placing rather than winning.
pdleech
Apprentice
I was speaking to Peter (Fahey) last night about Owega Star and he couldn't be happier with the horse " never had him so well" He was as angry/perplexed as I've ever known him about him being 100/1 - it was actually pretty funny just listening to him. He obviously was in the same mood later based on his comments in the Racing Post. I happen to agree with him - there are some old form lines with Shutthefrontdoor which would have Owega Star nearer to 10/1 (well..if you really believe Shutthefrontdoor should be 7/1). Anyway, he will love the ground, jumps for fun and is a tremendous e/w bet at that price!
It's really annoyed me that Clare Balding has deserted the Grand National so she can support the ladies boat race so I'd really like to see the National won by a lady jockey for the first time and Clare not to be there when it happens; if it could be a lady jockeys first and second even better.
Looks like spiteful behaviour from BBC Sport - when has the Boat Race clashed with the National before ? Certainly not when it was on BBC !!!
fonz
At the Start
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- Nov 5, 2012
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edgt
Senior Jockey
Seemingly in 1958 brothers Toss and Pat Taaffe finished first and third in GN.
They were the guests on the TV show "Whats My Line?" the following night.
Owing to a newspaper strike there were no Sunday Newspapers and the panel on finding out they were sportsmen who made the headlines that weekend quessed that they had taken part in the boat race ! How true that story is I am not sure but I have seen it written.
Both men were six footers.
icebreaker
At the Start
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- Jun 12, 2005
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- 2,957
It IS a super offer, without doubt.
A free £125 cash-back. And even better, you can do multiple horses so that you won't tie up a large amount on the Betfair Lay side as you would if only doing one horse of £125 E/W. And you will get 5 places too with Bet365.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
1. Rocky Creek
2.Soll
3 Wyck Hill
4.Many Clouds
2.Soll
3 Wyck Hill
4.Many Clouds
Tricast would pay a pretty penny.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Royale Knight
Pineau De Re
Alvarado
The Druids Nephew
Pineau De Re
Alvarado
The Druids Nephew
fonz
At the Start
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- Nov 5, 2012
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- 2,401
Assuming you mean AP?
Shutthefrontdoor is a huge stats negative, As far as I can see he's just not fancied among anybody on here but he absolutely has the talent to wear every other horse bar Rocky Creek in this race down if he can stay out of trouble and take to the fences.
Believe!
Didn't see that next post Luke!
Last edited:
4.15 - Aintree - Saturday 11th April 2015:
Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)
Much has been written concerning the changes to the National Course and there's little doubt that it's not the jumping test it once was. With the fences now the 'brush through' variety without the middle wooden core there should in theory be less fallers but that may not be the case if jockeys attack the obstacles at a faster than advisable speed. A fast early pace will make the ability to stay that more important.. The race is now attracting classier horses which compresses the handicap somewhat and will allow those carrying big weights to have a better chance than they once did. Many previous trends could become unreliable so finding the winner in the initial stages of this race under its changed format is not easy. Although new sets of trends are likely to be set in the coming years it's worth noting those that have stood the test of time because some will still be valid in slimming the field down.
Ten year trends:
Age:
3 six year olds have taken their chance and none were placed
22 seven year olds have taken their chance, none were placed
59 eight year olds have run 6 placed from 59 entries
There has been 3 winners and 9 placed nine year olds from 107 entries.
4 winners were ten years old and 7 of that age group placed from 104 entries.
7 eleven year olds were placed and 3 won from 76 entries.
There has been no twelve year old winner and just one placed from 28 entries.
Horses thirteen years and over have been responsible for eleven entries and none placed
The last ten winners have been between 9 and 11 and that age group placed 23 times from 277 entries.
Every winner since the last war has been aged between 8 and 12.
In the past ten years all but one of the 40 places have been taken by horses aged 8 to 11
None of the 25 horses aged younger than eight to take their chances have placed.
Only one horse aged 12+ has made the frame from 39 entries.
Weight:
The last ten winners carried between 10-3 and 11-6
9 of the last ten winners carried between 10-6 and 11-6 and 23 in that weight band placed from 291 entries
5 of the last ten winners carried between 11-0 and 11-6 from an ~22% representation.
9 of the last 10 winners carried no more than a stone more than the bottom weight.
Of the 11 top weights only two were placed.
It takes a classy horse to even place carrying 11-7 or more. Two of the three that did had won the race the previous season and the other was a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
Class:
In recent seasons higher rated runners have began to fare much better. Since 2009 there have been five winners and fifteen placed from 161 entries who were rated 143 or greater. Those rated 142 or lower have just one win and three placed efforts to their name from 79 entries.
Breeding:
French breds had not won the race for a century prior to Mon Mome winning in 2009. Since then the feat has been repeated twice by Neptune Collognes (2012) and Pineau De Re last season (2014).
Irish Bred horses have won 7 of the last ten renewals and filled 29 of the 40 places (~73%) from just a ~59% representation.
British Bred horses have only placed five times from 67 entries.
Old Vic has Sired one of the first three home in five of the last seven seasons.
Form:
10 of the last ten winners had won a Chase over three miles plus
10 of the last ten winners had run in at least ten Chases
10 of the last ten winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases.
10 of the last ten winners posted a career high RPR in a Chase over three miles plus
10 of the last ten winners had won more than one Chase in the current season.
10 of the last ten winners had run within 55 days of the National.
10 of the last ten winners had run 3 to 6 times since September 1st.
9 of the last ten winners had won 3 to 5 Chases
9 of last ten winners had contested 5 to 16 handicap Chases.
9 of the last ten winners had won a Chase worth 29K or more.
8 of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their last completed start.
8 of the last ten winners posted an RPR of 146+ on their last Chase start.
8 of the last ten winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season Chasers.
8 of the last ten winners recorded their highest RPR at a left-handed track.
7 of the last ten winners had won a Listed or Graded Chase.
7 of the last ten winners had posted an RPR of at least 147 over 26 furlongs plus on a left handed track
7 of the last ten winners had run over hurdles in January, February or March
Course Form:
4 of the last ten winners had run over the National fences
3 of the last ten winners had run in the previous season's renewal of the race.
Racing style:
5 of the last ten winners raced prominently, 3 raced in mid-division and two were held up.
Market Position:
There have been three winning favourites in the last ten years (l.s.p of £7.50).
There have been five horses priced at 25/1 or greater in the last ten years. (25/1, 33/1, 33/1, 66/1 and 100/1)
Looking at the past ten years a horse fitting the following trends could hold sound chances:
Aged 9 to 11
Officially rated 143 or higher
Posted an RPR of 146+ on their last completed start
Carrying no more than 14 pounds higher than bottom weight
Run 3 to 6 times since September 1st last year and run since 17th February this year.
Won over three miles plus
Irish or French Bred
Respect horses sired by Old Vic
Finished in first three on last completed start
Won a Listed or Graded Chase worth 29K plus
Won no more than one Chase in the current season
Run in at least 10 Chases, winning at least three.
Posted highest RPR in a Chase over three miles plus, preferably on a left-handed track
Posted an RPR of 147+ in a Chase over 26 furlongs plus
Has run over hurdles in 2015.
Of course stats don't run the race and Lady Luck, Jockeyship and the weather can all play their part. It's normally unusual to find a statistically perfect horse.
The Runners:
Lord Windemere: (9 year old carrying 11-10) Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in 2014 but the first three home in that race haven't won a race since. He hasn't reproduced that form in four subsequent outings and made absolutely no fist of defending his crown at Cheltenham last month, eventually being pulled up. Poor Trainer form (they haven't had a winner for a year), an acrimonious split with the stable jockey and rumours of a virus in the yard are all huge negatives. He's the highest rated horse in the field and it's possible the first time visor could have a positive effect but it will need to for him to have any sort of chance. Ground may not be an issue but top weight is, the last horse to defy it was Red Rum and he was the first since the 1930's.
Many Clouds: (8 year old carrying 11-9) Fancied by many for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but didn't repeat the level of his previous two victories in the Hennessy Gold Cup or the Betbright Cup Chase. His best form has come on ground softer than he will encounter here but as a winner of five of his ten starts over fences he has been a progressive Chaser over the past two seasons. The Assessor has given him a chance by allowing him to run from a few pounds below his Official rating and there is plenty of stamina in the his breeding. May have had a harder race than ideal in the Gold Cup and this race was never mentioned as a season target. A big run wouldn't come as a surprise but maybe here at the behest of his owner.
Unioniste: (7 year old carrying 11-6) Up against it as a seven year old but he has plenty of Chasing experience for one of his age and hasn't fallen in 14 starts over fences. Record on ground soft or slower as a Chaser stands at four wins and three defeats (placed once) but on ground faster than soft it reads two wins and five defeats so conditions in this race could be a bit quicker than ideal. Hasn't won beyond 25 furlongs but has suggested on a number of occasions that a severe stamina test may suit. By the same Sire as the yard's 2012 winner Neptune Collognes but his stumbling block may be his mark, which has suffered to the tune of eleven pounds since winning his penultimate start easily at Sandown. The runner up hasn't done much for the form since and winning a race before the weights were out for this race may not have been ideal seeing as it was stated that this was his seasons target.
Rocky Creek: (9 year old carrying 11-3) Unlike stablemate Unioniste, Rocky Creek recorded his last win after the weights were published for this race. That easy victory in a Grade Three handicap leaves him officially nine pounds well in here and that makes him a very tempting proposition so we’re very happy that we backed him ante post back in January and are now sitting on a nice price. Has plenty of very classy form to his name despite struggling with his breathing for much of the time. That was rectified by a wind operation in the Summer and he has run well in two of his three starts since. Reappeared in a Grade One Chase at Down Royal in November and finished an eleven length second to subsequent Gold Cup third, Road To Riches. He performed poorly four weeks later in the Hennessy but the first time tongue may have had something to do with that because he produced a career best when winning at Kempton last time out when it was dispensed with. Seemed to find plenty when asked and he may now see out his races better now his breathing seems to have been sorted out. Ran well to finish fifth in this race last year and was going as well as anything two out, despite being made plenty of use of on the second circuit. Could last a lot longer if he is over his physical problems and is ridden with a bit more restraint. Not ground dependent and difficult to see any real negatives.
First Lieutenant: (10 year old carrying 11-3) Been keeping company at the top table since he was last in a handicap back in December 2012. That resulted in a good third in the Hennessy Gold Cup and the highlight of his career came four months later when he won the Grade One Betfred Bowl at this meeting. He hasn't won in 11 outings since and three of his four starts this season have been well below the level he was producing in the Winter/Spring of last season. Wouldn't be on a bad mark if the return to handicap company and/or the demands of this rate suit. Versatile regarding ground conditions and hasn't fallen in any of his 23 starts over fences. Runs for the first time in a tongue tie/cheekpieces combination and the first time tongue tie/blinkers did result in his best performance of four this season. Yard showing tentative signs of returning to form recently and has a very accomplished female jockey on board.
Balthazar King: (11 year old carrying 11-2) Normally seen over cross country fences these days but has run in the last two renewals of this race and produced a cracking performance to finish second last season from a three pound lower mark. Been aimed at this race and skipped the Cheltenham Festival in order to be fresh. The stats say that is not necessarily a good idea and his two runs in this race seem to support that theory. Came here on the back of a run at Cheltenham last season but had an identical preparation to this in 2013 and ran much too freely, eventually finishing well beaten. Very proficient jumper and stays very well but he may need a career best if he is to prevail and that's a tough ask at the age of eleven. Looks better place material than the majority of the field and could go one better than last year if some of his opposition don't run to their best.
Shutthefrontdoor: (8 year old carrying 11-2) Won his last two starts, his penultimate victory coming in the Irish Grand National on his final start last season. That was his only start in a handicap over fences and he finds himself eleven pounds higher in this race. Easily beat the 143 rated Vintage Star at Carlisle on his seasonal reappearance in November last time out and has plenty of potential for improvement after just six starts over fences. His jumping is improving with experience but his absence since that last race is not ideal and his inexperience over fences for a race of this nature is another negative. He has been all the rage after Tony McCoy nominated him as his final ride in the National and, as a result, he now represents very poor value. Hard to justify favouritism on what he has achieved in comparison to some of these and, although a fairy-tale ending for the Champion Jockey couldn't be ruled out, he is now priced up on sentiment and potential.
Pineau De Re: (12 year old carrying 11-0) Last seasons winner and this eight pound higher mark wouldn't have prevented him winning that race so a follow up cannot be ruled out. Trained for this one race and has been kept to hurdles since this race last year but doesn't come into this year's renewal in the same kind of form as he did last season. Now a year older and at an age when many horses start on the downgrade. Bit too soon to assume that's happening to him because he wasn't disgraced in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last time out and it may be that his respected small yard are keeping him quieter this time round. Leighton Aspell, who was on board last season, favours Many Clouds which may say more about his chances than his form this season. Either that or he isn't a very good judge of their relative merits and he wouldn't be the first jockey to be given that label.
Ballycasey: (8 year old carrying 10-13) First time in a handicap over either fences or hurdles and has only been seen twice over further than three miles in two of his nine starts over fences. Finished second on both occasion but travelled like the winner entering the latter stages over an extended three miles in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham and did the same in a Grade One Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival over 25 furlongs. He didn't seem to get home on either occasion and he must be a very doubtful stayer over this trip. Often doesn't consent to put his best foot forward and, although he represents the Walsh/Mullins/Ricci combination, he makes no appeal, even at 40/1.
Spring Heeled: (8 year old carrying 10-12) Won the Kim Muir at last season's Cheltenham Festival and ran to a similar level in the Galway Plate last July. Likely to have needed the run at Fairyhouse in February and drying conditions are in his favour. Thought by many to be a National type (sired by Old Vic) but he has been well beaten both times he has gone beyond 27 furlongs. However he did suggest on the second occasion over an extended 29 furlongs at Sandown that a severe stamina test may suit, running on late on after losing his position. A mark of 148 looks high and, as a stablemate of Lord Windemere, the trials and tribulations of his yard serves as a major negative.
Rebel Rebellion: (10 year old carrying 10-12) Progressive away from heavy ground this season and comes here on the back of two wins and a second in his last three starts. He's completed over these fences twice in the Sefton and once in the Topham but there must be a major concern about him staying this trip. Finished a creditable second to Soll over three miles on his penultimate start at Exeter but that was just his second start over that distance and he hasn't raced over further. Officially seven pounds well in here but that mark has been achieved over shorter and it's debatable whether he's well handicapped under the conditions of this race. If a chance is taken that he will see out his race he appeals more than many.
Dolatulo: (8 year old carrying 10-11) Finished eighth of sixteen over these fences in the Grand Sefton in December and followed that by winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby later the same month. Kept to hurdles for his last two starts, presumably in an effort to preserve his handicap mark. Runs from eight pounds higher in the handicap than he did at Wetherby and the placed horses have done nothing for that form since. Isn't bred to stay extreme trips, Dam was a half sister to a 17 furlong Chase winner and the Sire hasn't produced a winner beyond 25 furlongs.
Mon Parrain: (9 year old carrying 10-11) His temperament has been called into question on more than one occasion and it's probably the reason for his inconsistency in recent times. Has jumped these fences well in the past but his last two victories have come when sporting different headgear for the first time. The victory he gained on his penultimate start in the first time blinkers wasn't repeated in the same headgear last time out and he has the same aids fitted for this race. Six pounds higher in the weights than for his last victory and his jockey cannot claim his five pound allowance. Probably has the inherent talent to run well but whether he consents to show it is another question.
Night In Milan (9 year old carrying 10-9) Progressive prior to this season when kept away from testing conditions and has shown his best form at Doncaster but that's probably because he normally gets decent ground there. Has form on flat left-handed tracks elsewhere when the ground hasn't been testing, including here on the Mildmay course. Form seems to have levelled off in recent starts over fences and he may now be weighted to his best but there is plenty in his breeding to suggest that he could improve for this much stiffer test. This is a big leap into the unknown class wise but he is the type who could get into a good rhythm round here and that will hold him in good stead. Has a bigger chance of a prominent show than many in this race.
Rubi Light: (10 year old carrying 10-9) A wind operation has seen him rejuvenated in his recent races, winning his last two starts. Has only gone over 24/25 furlongs twice in his career and seemed to stay on the first attempt on good ground but found it much tougher on heavy ground the second time. A good jumper and versatile regarding ground conditions but it's likely the only way he will stay this trip is in a horsebox.
The Druids Nephew: (8 years old carrying 10-9) Arguably the best handicapped horse in the race being ten pounds well in after winning a Grade Three Handicap at Cheltenham last time out. Seems to have reserves of stamina, ably demonstrated when he refused to settle over 27 furlongs at Cheltenham in November but still wasn't stopping up the hill in the latter stages. His jumping seems to be improving but he still makes the odd error and he isn't a very big horse to be making mistakes over these fences. Aiden Coleman replaces the injured Barry Geraghty and he will have to try and restrain his exuberant nature while getting him into a good rhythm. Major form chance if everything falls into place.
Cause Of Causes: (7 year old carrying 10-9) A seven year old and 22 have taken their chances in the last decade and none of them have even placed. That doesn't bode well for his chances but he is more experienced and battle hardened than your typical Chaser of his age and may be capable of defying past trends. He had gone 14 races and just over two years without winning before getting his head back in front in the Four Mile Amateurs race at the Festival last month. He would've beaten Spring Heeled in last season's Kim Muir at Cheltenham but for a bad blunder at the last and he is three pounds better off with that rival in this race. His racing style is suited to Paul Carberry and he had form figures of 221 on him earlier in his career. The patient last to first tactics that were successful at Cheltenham will be harder to execute in this race but the yard have enjoyed an excellent first two days of this meeting.
Godsmejudge: (9 year old carrying 10-8) Sprang back to life this time last year after pulling up in his previous starts and that resulted in him finishing second in the Scottish National and third in the Bet365 Gold Cup. He had won the Scottish National in 2013 so stamina is obviously his forte. This seems to be his time of year so his poor form coming into this race may not be an indication of how he will run in this but it's difficult to gauge just where he's at. That means taking a lot on trust in supporting him and, as a horse who has yet to jump these fences and whose latest poor effort came just three weeks ago, the percentage call is to oppose.
Al Co: (10 year old carrying 10-8) Has only been beyond 26 furlongs on one occasion and that resulted in victory in the Scottish National this time last year. He has only been Chasing once since then and that came over these fences in the Becher Chase in December. He didn't seem to enjoy the experience and was eventually pulled up and that is a concern coming into this race. Has run to his previous hurdles form in his last two starts over the smaller obstacles and connections must hope that his Becher run was down to poor stable form at the time. They are in much better nick now and their representative wouldn't be badly weighted being just five pounds above his Scottish National winning mark. Drying ground is in his favour and he is still relatively lighted raced over fences, especially for a ten year old. His trainer knows how to prepare a horse for this race so it may be worth chancing that Al Co will fare better on his second attempt over these fences.
Monbeg Dude: (10 year old carrying 10-7) His jumping has improved in recent times but he still jumps low at his fences and a few mistakes saw him not completing his race as well as he can when finishing seventh in this race last season. Seems best on undulating tracks, on which he has gained all four victories in this country, and his racing style is not ideal for this race. Likely to give his running and could improve on last year's performance if he avoids any mistakes, but that's a big if.
Corrin Wood: (8 year old carrying 10-7) Only had seven starts over fences and has won three of them but they came in 3 and 4 runner fields. Nine pounds higher than for his only win in a handicap and gave up the ghost when challenged for the lead last time out. A bold jumper but likely he needs an unhurried lead and there's not much likelihood of that in this race.
The Rainbow Hunter: (11 year old carrying 10-7) Hasn't had any luck in the last two renewals of this race, being hampered and unseating his jockey early on each occasion. Only seen once since last season's race and that saw him pulled up in the Betbright Cup Chase at Kempton in February after struggling from a fair way out. Still five pounds higher than for his last win and his inactivity this season is likely to count against him in this race.
Saint Are: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Has been hammered by the Assessor for winning a Catterick handicap over an extended 25 furlongs last time out. A fourteen pound higher mark would seem to scupper his chances in this better race but that carried on the progression he had made on each start for his new yard this season. Looks an improved jumper under his new tutelage and has been rated higher in his earlier days. He wasn't stopping when finishing third over these fences in the Becher Chase over 26 furlongs in December but he has nearly four lengths to make upon Oscar Time and is ten pounds worse off at the weights. Finished a well beaten ninth in this race in 2013 as a seven year old but he wasn't put into the main teeth of the race and did make headway on the second circuit. Main hopes probably hinge on his new yard improving him for this stiffer stamina test, and that's not impossible.
Across The Bay: (11 year old carrying 10-6) Carried wide by a loose horse when leading at the same point in the past two renewals of this race. Enjoys his own way out in front but often loses interest once he is crowded. Inconsistent but five pounds lower than last season and gives the impression he will stay. All eight career victories have come in soft or heavy ground so may find himself going faster than he wants on this quicker surface. Will have his supporters and, after being below form this season, he was still going well when brought down in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month. Yard are also showing tentative signs of returning to form.
Tranquil Sea: (13 year old carrying 10-5) Veteran who won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2009. Has only been seen once this season when finishing 23 lengths behind Soll in a Veterans Chase at Newbury in February. That extended 26 furlongs was the furthest he has ever travelled and the only time he has won beyond 20 furlongs was an uncompetitive Veterans Chase at Doncaster over three miles in February of last year. Must be rated as a very doubtful stayer over this marathon trip and it's likely he would have to start in the morning if he is to get into the shake up. Last 13 year old to win this race was 92 years ago.
Oscar Time: (14 year old carrying 10-5) No 14 year old has ever won the Grand National but there's much to admire about this veteran. Second and fourth in two attempts in this race and there hasn't been a significant drop in his level of performance this season. Won the Becher Chase over these fences in December and runs from a six pound higher mark here. His jockey cannot claim his three pounds in this race but his record over these fences is such that it matters little. A place is probably the best he can hope for but that would be some accomplishment if he were to achieve it.
Bob Ford: (8 year old carrying 10-4) Ten pounds higher than when one of only two finishers on almost unraceable ground in the Welsh National at the end of January and was possibly still feeling the effects of that race when pulling up in the Midlands National six weeks later. Has never won a race on anything faster than soft ground and didn't look happy when finishing well beaten over these fences in the Grand Sefton on G/S ground in December. Things may happen too quickly for him here and there's also the chance that the Welsh National, run in a time almost 90 seconds outside standard, could leave it's mark for some time to come.
Super Duty: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Nine starts over fences, one victory and hasn't won a handicap over fences or hurdles. Wouldn't be badly weighted on his peak efforts of a few years ago but hasn't done enough in two starts for his current yard after an injury enforced 13 month absence to be considered. Prominent racer but difficult to see him being up there for long.
Wyck Hill: (11 year old carrying 10-4) Wasn't seen to best effect when he was held up in his only attempt over these fences. At his best in testing ground and tracking those at the head of affairs. Did just that when winning the Eider chase last season over 33 furlongs in heavy ground from a mark of 133. Eight pounds higher here and comes into the race after never going with any fluency and falling at the sixth in this season's Eider. That's not an ideal preparation and neither is just two outings in the last 13 months. Will find conditions here quicker than ideal but has stamina in abundance.
Gas Line Boy: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Took a hike in the weights after winning a 29 furlong Haydock Chase by 13 lengths in soft ground at Haydock in November and wasn't in the same form when pulling up in the Welsh National a month later. Took a step back in the right direction last time out back at Haydock but one too many mistakes saw him finish almost 20 lengths back in fourth. He is an exciting, bold jumper when he goes long at his fences but he is not so clever when he gets in too close. How well he goes may depend on how often he has to try and shorten up and how he takes to having company near the head of affairs. Wouldn't be the worst horse at his price in this race.
Chance Du Roy: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Knows his way over these fences in his sleep and has completed in five of his six attempts. Those completions have seen him finish fifth and first in the Becher Chase, ninth and second in the Topham and a 19 length sixth in last season's Grand National. His victory in the Becher last season was his only win beyond 20 furlongs and he did seem to empty in the latter stages of this race last year. Three pound lower than 12 months ago but softer ground may have been ideal. Likely to get round but it's not difficult to see him oustayed by several of these.
Portrait King: (10 year old carrying 10-3) Won the Eider Chase back in 2012 but hasn't been very consistent since then. However he was second in a Grand National trial at Punchestown in February and, after disappointing in this season's Eider, he ran as well as he has ever done over hurdles when he filled second spot at Down Royal last month. Hasn't fallen in any of his 13 Chases but can sometimes lack fluency over his obstacles and that would be a problem in a race of this nature. On the plus side he is not badly treated on his current mark and he is likely to stay this marathon trip. Cheekpieces worn for the first time in his last race are retained for the first time over fences.
Owega Star: (8 year old carrying 10-3) Has some good quality Irish form to his name but, although he stays three miles, he has yet to win beyond 22 furlongs. Neither of his two victories over fences or his three over hurdles were gained in handicap company. Stamina for this trip is far from evident in his breeding. His Dam is by a sprinter and was a half sister to a seven furlong winner who won a 17 furlong Seller over hurdles. His Sire won over 11 furlongs but he has yet to produce a NH horse who has won over further than 21 furlongs under rules. There are horses who defy logic and stay further than they should theoretically but Owega Star doesn't run like a horse crying out for an extreme test such as this.
River Choice: (12 year old carrying 10-3) French trained horse whose stand out effort came in the Grand Steeple-Chase De Paris last May but he has done nothing to substantiate that form. Claimed by his present yard when winning a Chase easily at Enghien on his penultimate start and has finished last of four over hurdles in his only race since. A mark of 140 looks plenty high enough on the balance of his form and he is normally seen on much softer ground than he is likely to get here.
Court By Surprise: (10 year old carrying 10-3) Won both his starts this season, the second on a disqualification of the winner, but is now eleven pounds higher in the weights than he was at the start of the campaign. Hasn't been seen since November and, although he goes well fresh, it's not an ideal preparation for this race. Finished a close third in the London National over an extended 29 furlongs at Sandown in December 2013 and, as a good traveller, he has every chance of seeing out this trip. Open to the odd bad blunder or two and has his first experience of these fences but the drying conditions are in his favour. Better than some trading at similar prices.
Alvarado: (10 year old carrying 10-3) Finished fourth in this race last season and getting outpaced before running on again in the latter stages owes much to his quirky character. One pound lower than last season but only seen once since when probably needing the race at Newbury in February. Wouldn't be out of this by any stretch of the imagination if he consents to put his best foot forward and he is partnered by a jockey who has been placed in the last six renewals of this race. Ground will be fine and much may depend on what mood he turns up in on the day.
Soll: (10 year old carrying 10-2) Huge horse with a stride to match. Has won both his starts since changing to the David Pipe yard and the first time blinkers saw him travel kinder in his last race. They are retained here and added to the tongue tie he has worn for both starts under this Trainer. Officially seven pounds well in and is normally a sound jumper. Gets in here off 10-2 but has been well beaten in both previous attempts over these fences, although finishing seventh in this race in 2013 was a creditable effort. May have preferred softer ground but could go well if similar positive tactics to those used last time out are adopted again.
Ely Brown: (10 year old carrying 10-2) Only been seen over fences on four occasions and his two victories came in Novice races in fields of four and five runners. Injured on his last start as a Chaser in February of last year and was pulled up over hurdles on his only start since at the end of January. His last win saw him easily beat this seasons Eider Chase winner giving him four pounds over 25 furlongs at Wetherby and he is not badly treated on his current mark judged on that effort. However his current wellbeing and inexperience as a Chaser are major areas of concern.
Royale Knight: (9 year old carrying 10-2) Stablemate of last year's winner, Pineau De Re, and has been given a similar preparation. Progressive, stays well, jumps soundly and has won eight races since joining this yard back in 2012. Kept to hurdles since easily winner the Durham National over 30 furlongs at Sedgefield in October and his latest start last month saw him repoduce his best effort so far over the smaller obstacles. That suggests he is still at the top of his game and could be up to defying the fifteen pound higher mark he has been allocated for that last victory. There is a big step up in class but he could run very well if he takes to the demands of this race.
Selections:
Rocky Creek - 1 pt e/w @ 33/1. (Backed in January)
Night In Milan - 1 pt win @ 25/1. (Generally available)
Al Co - 1 pt win @ 28/1 (William hill)
Saint Are - 0.75 pts win @ 33/1 (Generally available)
Royale Knight 0.75 pt win @ 33/1 (Generally available)
Gas Line Boy 0.25 pts e/w @ 125/1 (Coral, 1/4 odds first five places)
Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)
Much has been written concerning the changes to the National Course and there's little doubt that it's not the jumping test it once was. With the fences now the 'brush through' variety without the middle wooden core there should in theory be less fallers but that may not be the case if jockeys attack the obstacles at a faster than advisable speed. A fast early pace will make the ability to stay that more important.. The race is now attracting classier horses which compresses the handicap somewhat and will allow those carrying big weights to have a better chance than they once did. Many previous trends could become unreliable so finding the winner in the initial stages of this race under its changed format is not easy. Although new sets of trends are likely to be set in the coming years it's worth noting those that have stood the test of time because some will still be valid in slimming the field down.
Ten year trends:
Age:
3 six year olds have taken their chance and none were placed
22 seven year olds have taken their chance, none were placed
59 eight year olds have run 6 placed from 59 entries
There has been 3 winners and 9 placed nine year olds from 107 entries.
4 winners were ten years old and 7 of that age group placed from 104 entries.
7 eleven year olds were placed and 3 won from 76 entries.
There has been no twelve year old winner and just one placed from 28 entries.
Horses thirteen years and over have been responsible for eleven entries and none placed
The last ten winners have been between 9 and 11 and that age group placed 23 times from 277 entries.
Every winner since the last war has been aged between 8 and 12.
In the past ten years all but one of the 40 places have been taken by horses aged 8 to 11
None of the 25 horses aged younger than eight to take their chances have placed.
Only one horse aged 12+ has made the frame from 39 entries.
Weight:
The last ten winners carried between 10-3 and 11-6
9 of the last ten winners carried between 10-6 and 11-6 and 23 in that weight band placed from 291 entries
5 of the last ten winners carried between 11-0 and 11-6 from an ~22% representation.
9 of the last 10 winners carried no more than a stone more than the bottom weight.
Of the 11 top weights only two were placed.
It takes a classy horse to even place carrying 11-7 or more. Two of the three that did had won the race the previous season and the other was a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
Class:
In recent seasons higher rated runners have began to fare much better. Since 2009 there have been five winners and fifteen placed from 161 entries who were rated 143 or greater. Those rated 142 or lower have just one win and three placed efforts to their name from 79 entries.
Breeding:
French breds had not won the race for a century prior to Mon Mome winning in 2009. Since then the feat has been repeated twice by Neptune Collognes (2012) and Pineau De Re last season (2014).
Irish Bred horses have won 7 of the last ten renewals and filled 29 of the 40 places (~73%) from just a ~59% representation.
British Bred horses have only placed five times from 67 entries.
Old Vic has Sired one of the first three home in five of the last seven seasons.
Form:
10 of the last ten winners had won a Chase over three miles plus
10 of the last ten winners had run in at least ten Chases
10 of the last ten winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases.
10 of the last ten winners posted a career high RPR in a Chase over three miles plus
10 of the last ten winners had won more than one Chase in the current season.
10 of the last ten winners had run within 55 days of the National.
10 of the last ten winners had run 3 to 6 times since September 1st.
9 of the last ten winners had won 3 to 5 Chases
9 of last ten winners had contested 5 to 16 handicap Chases.
9 of the last ten winners had won a Chase worth 29K or more.
8 of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their last completed start.
8 of the last ten winners posted an RPR of 146+ on their last Chase start.
8 of the last ten winners were 2nd, 3rd or 4th season Chasers.
8 of the last ten winners recorded their highest RPR at a left-handed track.
7 of the last ten winners had won a Listed or Graded Chase.
7 of the last ten winners had posted an RPR of at least 147 over 26 furlongs plus on a left handed track
7 of the last ten winners had run over hurdles in January, February or March
Course Form:
4 of the last ten winners had run over the National fences
3 of the last ten winners had run in the previous season's renewal of the race.
Racing style:
5 of the last ten winners raced prominently, 3 raced in mid-division and two were held up.
Market Position:
There have been three winning favourites in the last ten years (l.s.p of £7.50).
There have been five horses priced at 25/1 or greater in the last ten years. (25/1, 33/1, 33/1, 66/1 and 100/1)
Looking at the past ten years a horse fitting the following trends could hold sound chances:
Aged 9 to 11
Officially rated 143 or higher
Posted an RPR of 146+ on their last completed start
Carrying no more than 14 pounds higher than bottom weight
Run 3 to 6 times since September 1st last year and run since 17th February this year.
Won over three miles plus
Irish or French Bred
Respect horses sired by Old Vic
Finished in first three on last completed start
Won a Listed or Graded Chase worth 29K plus
Won no more than one Chase in the current season
Run in at least 10 Chases, winning at least three.
Posted highest RPR in a Chase over three miles plus, preferably on a left-handed track
Posted an RPR of 147+ in a Chase over 26 furlongs plus
Has run over hurdles in 2015.
Of course stats don't run the race and Lady Luck, Jockeyship and the weather can all play their part. It's normally unusual to find a statistically perfect horse.
The Runners:
Lord Windemere: (9 year old carrying 11-10) Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in 2014 but the first three home in that race haven't won a race since. He hasn't reproduced that form in four subsequent outings and made absolutely no fist of defending his crown at Cheltenham last month, eventually being pulled up. Poor Trainer form (they haven't had a winner for a year), an acrimonious split with the stable jockey and rumours of a virus in the yard are all huge negatives. He's the highest rated horse in the field and it's possible the first time visor could have a positive effect but it will need to for him to have any sort of chance. Ground may not be an issue but top weight is, the last horse to defy it was Red Rum and he was the first since the 1930's.
Many Clouds: (8 year old carrying 11-9) Fancied by many for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but didn't repeat the level of his previous two victories in the Hennessy Gold Cup or the Betbright Cup Chase. His best form has come on ground softer than he will encounter here but as a winner of five of his ten starts over fences he has been a progressive Chaser over the past two seasons. The Assessor has given him a chance by allowing him to run from a few pounds below his Official rating and there is plenty of stamina in the his breeding. May have had a harder race than ideal in the Gold Cup and this race was never mentioned as a season target. A big run wouldn't come as a surprise but maybe here at the behest of his owner.
Unioniste: (7 year old carrying 11-6) Up against it as a seven year old but he has plenty of Chasing experience for one of his age and hasn't fallen in 14 starts over fences. Record on ground soft or slower as a Chaser stands at four wins and three defeats (placed once) but on ground faster than soft it reads two wins and five defeats so conditions in this race could be a bit quicker than ideal. Hasn't won beyond 25 furlongs but has suggested on a number of occasions that a severe stamina test may suit. By the same Sire as the yard's 2012 winner Neptune Collognes but his stumbling block may be his mark, which has suffered to the tune of eleven pounds since winning his penultimate start easily at Sandown. The runner up hasn't done much for the form since and winning a race before the weights were out for this race may not have been ideal seeing as it was stated that this was his seasons target.
Rocky Creek: (9 year old carrying 11-3) Unlike stablemate Unioniste, Rocky Creek recorded his last win after the weights were published for this race. That easy victory in a Grade Three handicap leaves him officially nine pounds well in here and that makes him a very tempting proposition so we’re very happy that we backed him ante post back in January and are now sitting on a nice price. Has plenty of very classy form to his name despite struggling with his breathing for much of the time. That was rectified by a wind operation in the Summer and he has run well in two of his three starts since. Reappeared in a Grade One Chase at Down Royal in November and finished an eleven length second to subsequent Gold Cup third, Road To Riches. He performed poorly four weeks later in the Hennessy but the first time tongue may have had something to do with that because he produced a career best when winning at Kempton last time out when it was dispensed with. Seemed to find plenty when asked and he may now see out his races better now his breathing seems to have been sorted out. Ran well to finish fifth in this race last year and was going as well as anything two out, despite being made plenty of use of on the second circuit. Could last a lot longer if he is over his physical problems and is ridden with a bit more restraint. Not ground dependent and difficult to see any real negatives.
First Lieutenant: (10 year old carrying 11-3) Been keeping company at the top table since he was last in a handicap back in December 2012. That resulted in a good third in the Hennessy Gold Cup and the highlight of his career came four months later when he won the Grade One Betfred Bowl at this meeting. He hasn't won in 11 outings since and three of his four starts this season have been well below the level he was producing in the Winter/Spring of last season. Wouldn't be on a bad mark if the return to handicap company and/or the demands of this rate suit. Versatile regarding ground conditions and hasn't fallen in any of his 23 starts over fences. Runs for the first time in a tongue tie/cheekpieces combination and the first time tongue tie/blinkers did result in his best performance of four this season. Yard showing tentative signs of returning to form recently and has a very accomplished female jockey on board.
Balthazar King: (11 year old carrying 11-2) Normally seen over cross country fences these days but has run in the last two renewals of this race and produced a cracking performance to finish second last season from a three pound lower mark. Been aimed at this race and skipped the Cheltenham Festival in order to be fresh. The stats say that is not necessarily a good idea and his two runs in this race seem to support that theory. Came here on the back of a run at Cheltenham last season but had an identical preparation to this in 2013 and ran much too freely, eventually finishing well beaten. Very proficient jumper and stays very well but he may need a career best if he is to prevail and that's a tough ask at the age of eleven. Looks better place material than the majority of the field and could go one better than last year if some of his opposition don't run to their best.
Shutthefrontdoor: (8 year old carrying 11-2) Won his last two starts, his penultimate victory coming in the Irish Grand National on his final start last season. That was his only start in a handicap over fences and he finds himself eleven pounds higher in this race. Easily beat the 143 rated Vintage Star at Carlisle on his seasonal reappearance in November last time out and has plenty of potential for improvement after just six starts over fences. His jumping is improving with experience but his absence since that last race is not ideal and his inexperience over fences for a race of this nature is another negative. He has been all the rage after Tony McCoy nominated him as his final ride in the National and, as a result, he now represents very poor value. Hard to justify favouritism on what he has achieved in comparison to some of these and, although a fairy-tale ending for the Champion Jockey couldn't be ruled out, he is now priced up on sentiment and potential.
Pineau De Re: (12 year old carrying 11-0) Last seasons winner and this eight pound higher mark wouldn't have prevented him winning that race so a follow up cannot be ruled out. Trained for this one race and has been kept to hurdles since this race last year but doesn't come into this year's renewal in the same kind of form as he did last season. Now a year older and at an age when many horses start on the downgrade. Bit too soon to assume that's happening to him because he wasn't disgraced in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last time out and it may be that his respected small yard are keeping him quieter this time round. Leighton Aspell, who was on board last season, favours Many Clouds which may say more about his chances than his form this season. Either that or he isn't a very good judge of their relative merits and he wouldn't be the first jockey to be given that label.
Ballycasey: (8 year old carrying 10-13) First time in a handicap over either fences or hurdles and has only been seen twice over further than three miles in two of his nine starts over fences. Finished second on both occasion but travelled like the winner entering the latter stages over an extended three miles in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham and did the same in a Grade One Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival over 25 furlongs. He didn't seem to get home on either occasion and he must be a very doubtful stayer over this trip. Often doesn't consent to put his best foot forward and, although he represents the Walsh/Mullins/Ricci combination, he makes no appeal, even at 40/1.
Spring Heeled: (8 year old carrying 10-12) Won the Kim Muir at last season's Cheltenham Festival and ran to a similar level in the Galway Plate last July. Likely to have needed the run at Fairyhouse in February and drying conditions are in his favour. Thought by many to be a National type (sired by Old Vic) but he has been well beaten both times he has gone beyond 27 furlongs. However he did suggest on the second occasion over an extended 29 furlongs at Sandown that a severe stamina test may suit, running on late on after losing his position. A mark of 148 looks high and, as a stablemate of Lord Windemere, the trials and tribulations of his yard serves as a major negative.
Rebel Rebellion: (10 year old carrying 10-12) Progressive away from heavy ground this season and comes here on the back of two wins and a second in his last three starts. He's completed over these fences twice in the Sefton and once in the Topham but there must be a major concern about him staying this trip. Finished a creditable second to Soll over three miles on his penultimate start at Exeter but that was just his second start over that distance and he hasn't raced over further. Officially seven pounds well in here but that mark has been achieved over shorter and it's debatable whether he's well handicapped under the conditions of this race. If a chance is taken that he will see out his race he appeals more than many.
Dolatulo: (8 year old carrying 10-11) Finished eighth of sixteen over these fences in the Grand Sefton in December and followed that by winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby later the same month. Kept to hurdles for his last two starts, presumably in an effort to preserve his handicap mark. Runs from eight pounds higher in the handicap than he did at Wetherby and the placed horses have done nothing for that form since. Isn't bred to stay extreme trips, Dam was a half sister to a 17 furlong Chase winner and the Sire hasn't produced a winner beyond 25 furlongs.
Mon Parrain: (9 year old carrying 10-11) His temperament has been called into question on more than one occasion and it's probably the reason for his inconsistency in recent times. Has jumped these fences well in the past but his last two victories have come when sporting different headgear for the first time. The victory he gained on his penultimate start in the first time blinkers wasn't repeated in the same headgear last time out and he has the same aids fitted for this race. Six pounds higher in the weights than for his last victory and his jockey cannot claim his five pound allowance. Probably has the inherent talent to run well but whether he consents to show it is another question.
Night In Milan (9 year old carrying 10-9) Progressive prior to this season when kept away from testing conditions and has shown his best form at Doncaster but that's probably because he normally gets decent ground there. Has form on flat left-handed tracks elsewhere when the ground hasn't been testing, including here on the Mildmay course. Form seems to have levelled off in recent starts over fences and he may now be weighted to his best but there is plenty in his breeding to suggest that he could improve for this much stiffer test. This is a big leap into the unknown class wise but he is the type who could get into a good rhythm round here and that will hold him in good stead. Has a bigger chance of a prominent show than many in this race.
Rubi Light: (10 year old carrying 10-9) A wind operation has seen him rejuvenated in his recent races, winning his last two starts. Has only gone over 24/25 furlongs twice in his career and seemed to stay on the first attempt on good ground but found it much tougher on heavy ground the second time. A good jumper and versatile regarding ground conditions but it's likely the only way he will stay this trip is in a horsebox.
The Druids Nephew: (8 years old carrying 10-9) Arguably the best handicapped horse in the race being ten pounds well in after winning a Grade Three Handicap at Cheltenham last time out. Seems to have reserves of stamina, ably demonstrated when he refused to settle over 27 furlongs at Cheltenham in November but still wasn't stopping up the hill in the latter stages. His jumping seems to be improving but he still makes the odd error and he isn't a very big horse to be making mistakes over these fences. Aiden Coleman replaces the injured Barry Geraghty and he will have to try and restrain his exuberant nature while getting him into a good rhythm. Major form chance if everything falls into place.
Cause Of Causes: (7 year old carrying 10-9) A seven year old and 22 have taken their chances in the last decade and none of them have even placed. That doesn't bode well for his chances but he is more experienced and battle hardened than your typical Chaser of his age and may be capable of defying past trends. He had gone 14 races and just over two years without winning before getting his head back in front in the Four Mile Amateurs race at the Festival last month. He would've beaten Spring Heeled in last season's Kim Muir at Cheltenham but for a bad blunder at the last and he is three pounds better off with that rival in this race. His racing style is suited to Paul Carberry and he had form figures of 221 on him earlier in his career. The patient last to first tactics that were successful at Cheltenham will be harder to execute in this race but the yard have enjoyed an excellent first two days of this meeting.
Godsmejudge: (9 year old carrying 10-8) Sprang back to life this time last year after pulling up in his previous starts and that resulted in him finishing second in the Scottish National and third in the Bet365 Gold Cup. He had won the Scottish National in 2013 so stamina is obviously his forte. This seems to be his time of year so his poor form coming into this race may not be an indication of how he will run in this but it's difficult to gauge just where he's at. That means taking a lot on trust in supporting him and, as a horse who has yet to jump these fences and whose latest poor effort came just three weeks ago, the percentage call is to oppose.
Al Co: (10 year old carrying 10-8) Has only been beyond 26 furlongs on one occasion and that resulted in victory in the Scottish National this time last year. He has only been Chasing once since then and that came over these fences in the Becher Chase in December. He didn't seem to enjoy the experience and was eventually pulled up and that is a concern coming into this race. Has run to his previous hurdles form in his last two starts over the smaller obstacles and connections must hope that his Becher run was down to poor stable form at the time. They are in much better nick now and their representative wouldn't be badly weighted being just five pounds above his Scottish National winning mark. Drying ground is in his favour and he is still relatively lighted raced over fences, especially for a ten year old. His trainer knows how to prepare a horse for this race so it may be worth chancing that Al Co will fare better on his second attempt over these fences.
Monbeg Dude: (10 year old carrying 10-7) His jumping has improved in recent times but he still jumps low at his fences and a few mistakes saw him not completing his race as well as he can when finishing seventh in this race last season. Seems best on undulating tracks, on which he has gained all four victories in this country, and his racing style is not ideal for this race. Likely to give his running and could improve on last year's performance if he avoids any mistakes, but that's a big if.
Corrin Wood: (8 year old carrying 10-7) Only had seven starts over fences and has won three of them but they came in 3 and 4 runner fields. Nine pounds higher than for his only win in a handicap and gave up the ghost when challenged for the lead last time out. A bold jumper but likely he needs an unhurried lead and there's not much likelihood of that in this race.
The Rainbow Hunter: (11 year old carrying 10-7) Hasn't had any luck in the last two renewals of this race, being hampered and unseating his jockey early on each occasion. Only seen once since last season's race and that saw him pulled up in the Betbright Cup Chase at Kempton in February after struggling from a fair way out. Still five pounds higher than for his last win and his inactivity this season is likely to count against him in this race.
Saint Are: (9 year old carrying 10-6) Has been hammered by the Assessor for winning a Catterick handicap over an extended 25 furlongs last time out. A fourteen pound higher mark would seem to scupper his chances in this better race but that carried on the progression he had made on each start for his new yard this season. Looks an improved jumper under his new tutelage and has been rated higher in his earlier days. He wasn't stopping when finishing third over these fences in the Becher Chase over 26 furlongs in December but he has nearly four lengths to make upon Oscar Time and is ten pounds worse off at the weights. Finished a well beaten ninth in this race in 2013 as a seven year old but he wasn't put into the main teeth of the race and did make headway on the second circuit. Main hopes probably hinge on his new yard improving him for this stiffer stamina test, and that's not impossible.
Across The Bay: (11 year old carrying 10-6) Carried wide by a loose horse when leading at the same point in the past two renewals of this race. Enjoys his own way out in front but often loses interest once he is crowded. Inconsistent but five pounds lower than last season and gives the impression he will stay. All eight career victories have come in soft or heavy ground so may find himself going faster than he wants on this quicker surface. Will have his supporters and, after being below form this season, he was still going well when brought down in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month. Yard are also showing tentative signs of returning to form.
Tranquil Sea: (13 year old carrying 10-5) Veteran who won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2009. Has only been seen once this season when finishing 23 lengths behind Soll in a Veterans Chase at Newbury in February. That extended 26 furlongs was the furthest he has ever travelled and the only time he has won beyond 20 furlongs was an uncompetitive Veterans Chase at Doncaster over three miles in February of last year. Must be rated as a very doubtful stayer over this marathon trip and it's likely he would have to start in the morning if he is to get into the shake up. Last 13 year old to win this race was 92 years ago.
Oscar Time: (14 year old carrying 10-5) No 14 year old has ever won the Grand National but there's much to admire about this veteran. Second and fourth in two attempts in this race and there hasn't been a significant drop in his level of performance this season. Won the Becher Chase over these fences in December and runs from a six pound higher mark here. His jockey cannot claim his three pounds in this race but his record over these fences is such that it matters little. A place is probably the best he can hope for but that would be some accomplishment if he were to achieve it.
Bob Ford: (8 year old carrying 10-4) Ten pounds higher than when one of only two finishers on almost unraceable ground in the Welsh National at the end of January and was possibly still feeling the effects of that race when pulling up in the Midlands National six weeks later. Has never won a race on anything faster than soft ground and didn't look happy when finishing well beaten over these fences in the Grand Sefton on G/S ground in December. Things may happen too quickly for him here and there's also the chance that the Welsh National, run in a time almost 90 seconds outside standard, could leave it's mark for some time to come.
Super Duty: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Nine starts over fences, one victory and hasn't won a handicap over fences or hurdles. Wouldn't be badly weighted on his peak efforts of a few years ago but hasn't done enough in two starts for his current yard after an injury enforced 13 month absence to be considered. Prominent racer but difficult to see him being up there for long.
Wyck Hill: (11 year old carrying 10-4) Wasn't seen to best effect when he was held up in his only attempt over these fences. At his best in testing ground and tracking those at the head of affairs. Did just that when winning the Eider chase last season over 33 furlongs in heavy ground from a mark of 133. Eight pounds higher here and comes into the race after never going with any fluency and falling at the sixth in this season's Eider. That's not an ideal preparation and neither is just two outings in the last 13 months. Will find conditions here quicker than ideal but has stamina in abundance.
Gas Line Boy: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Took a hike in the weights after winning a 29 furlong Haydock Chase by 13 lengths in soft ground at Haydock in November and wasn't in the same form when pulling up in the Welsh National a month later. Took a step back in the right direction last time out back at Haydock but one too many mistakes saw him finish almost 20 lengths back in fourth. He is an exciting, bold jumper when he goes long at his fences but he is not so clever when he gets in too close. How well he goes may depend on how often he has to try and shorten up and how he takes to having company near the head of affairs. Wouldn't be the worst horse at his price in this race.
Chance Du Roy: (9 year old carrying 10-4) Knows his way over these fences in his sleep and has completed in five of his six attempts. Those completions have seen him finish fifth and first in the Becher Chase, ninth and second in the Topham and a 19 length sixth in last season's Grand National. His victory in the Becher last season was his only win beyond 20 furlongs and he did seem to empty in the latter stages of this race last year. Three pound lower than 12 months ago but softer ground may have been ideal. Likely to get round but it's not difficult to see him oustayed by several of these.
Portrait King: (10 year old carrying 10-3) Won the Eider Chase back in 2012 but hasn't been very consistent since then. However he was second in a Grand National trial at Punchestown in February and, after disappointing in this season's Eider, he ran as well as he has ever done over hurdles when he filled second spot at Down Royal last month. Hasn't fallen in any of his 13 Chases but can sometimes lack fluency over his obstacles and that would be a problem in a race of this nature. On the plus side he is not badly treated on his current mark and he is likely to stay this marathon trip. Cheekpieces worn for the first time in his last race are retained for the first time over fences.
Owega Star: (8 year old carrying 10-3) Has some good quality Irish form to his name but, although he stays three miles, he has yet to win beyond 22 furlongs. Neither of his two victories over fences or his three over hurdles were gained in handicap company. Stamina for this trip is far from evident in his breeding. His Dam is by a sprinter and was a half sister to a seven furlong winner who won a 17 furlong Seller over hurdles. His Sire won over 11 furlongs but he has yet to produce a NH horse who has won over further than 21 furlongs under rules. There are horses who defy logic and stay further than they should theoretically but Owega Star doesn't run like a horse crying out for an extreme test such as this.
River Choice: (12 year old carrying 10-3) French trained horse whose stand out effort came in the Grand Steeple-Chase De Paris last May but he has done nothing to substantiate that form. Claimed by his present yard when winning a Chase easily at Enghien on his penultimate start and has finished last of four over hurdles in his only race since. A mark of 140 looks plenty high enough on the balance of his form and he is normally seen on much softer ground than he is likely to get here.
Court By Surprise: (10 year old carrying 10-3) Won both his starts this season, the second on a disqualification of the winner, but is now eleven pounds higher in the weights than he was at the start of the campaign. Hasn't been seen since November and, although he goes well fresh, it's not an ideal preparation for this race. Finished a close third in the London National over an extended 29 furlongs at Sandown in December 2013 and, as a good traveller, he has every chance of seeing out this trip. Open to the odd bad blunder or two and has his first experience of these fences but the drying conditions are in his favour. Better than some trading at similar prices.
Alvarado: (10 year old carrying 10-3) Finished fourth in this race last season and getting outpaced before running on again in the latter stages owes much to his quirky character. One pound lower than last season but only seen once since when probably needing the race at Newbury in February. Wouldn't be out of this by any stretch of the imagination if he consents to put his best foot forward and he is partnered by a jockey who has been placed in the last six renewals of this race. Ground will be fine and much may depend on what mood he turns up in on the day.
Soll: (10 year old carrying 10-2) Huge horse with a stride to match. Has won both his starts since changing to the David Pipe yard and the first time blinkers saw him travel kinder in his last race. They are retained here and added to the tongue tie he has worn for both starts under this Trainer. Officially seven pounds well in and is normally a sound jumper. Gets in here off 10-2 but has been well beaten in both previous attempts over these fences, although finishing seventh in this race in 2013 was a creditable effort. May have preferred softer ground but could go well if similar positive tactics to those used last time out are adopted again.
Ely Brown: (10 year old carrying 10-2) Only been seen over fences on four occasions and his two victories came in Novice races in fields of four and five runners. Injured on his last start as a Chaser in February of last year and was pulled up over hurdles on his only start since at the end of January. His last win saw him easily beat this seasons Eider Chase winner giving him four pounds over 25 furlongs at Wetherby and he is not badly treated on his current mark judged on that effort. However his current wellbeing and inexperience as a Chaser are major areas of concern.
Royale Knight: (9 year old carrying 10-2) Stablemate of last year's winner, Pineau De Re, and has been given a similar preparation. Progressive, stays well, jumps soundly and has won eight races since joining this yard back in 2012. Kept to hurdles since easily winner the Durham National over 30 furlongs at Sedgefield in October and his latest start last month saw him repoduce his best effort so far over the smaller obstacles. That suggests he is still at the top of his game and could be up to defying the fifteen pound higher mark he has been allocated for that last victory. There is a big step up in class but he could run very well if he takes to the demands of this race.
Selections:
Rocky Creek - 1 pt e/w @ 33/1. (Backed in January)
Night In Milan - 1 pt win @ 25/1. (Generally available)
Al Co - 1 pt win @ 28/1 (William hill)
Saint Are - 0.75 pts win @ 33/1 (Generally available)
Royale Knight 0.75 pt win @ 33/1 (Generally available)
Gas Line Boy 0.25 pts e/w @ 125/1 (Coral, 1/4 odds first five places)