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The 2017 Grand National

I'm watching like a hawk for when they do.

Unhappy with the missus though as despite my advice she wouldn't stop abusing their £50 risk free in play footy offer (where she'd back home and away double chance pre-match and the draw in play) so they stopped her receiving promotions, meaning I'm stuck with the one account and the £250 limit.
 
My a/p National bets so far are:

Henri Parry Porgan (NR)
Tenor Nivernais 50/1 & 40/1
Gallant Oscar (NR)
Saphir Du Rheu 50/1 (laid off 20/1)
Saphir Du Rheu 20/1 NRNB BOG
Cocktails At Dawn 90
Triolo D'Alene (NR)
Definitly Red 20/1
The Young Master 20/1 NRNB BOG
Ballynagour 110/1
 
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Desert Orchid said:
For me, Blaklion has a chance. Probably a decent chance. He does have a better than decent chance of being in the first five or six and if I were to limit myself to one bet in the race it might be one with a profile like his that I'd favour.

However, I could never bring myself to back a 14/1 shot each-way in the race. A tenner each-way would slightly more than double your money if it gets placed. I'm not sure I think it's worth it. I'd rather spend the place portion of the bet on a second horse with just as good a chance.
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wilsonl said:
Completely agree with that for singles. E/W doubles is another matter though and Blaklion is a decent one to have in those, if maybe a bit short in the betting.
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A wager is a risk. An E/W wager is two completely different risks. In the said case you are risking your money at odds of 14/1 for one part of the bet to win by safely negotiating 30 fences and beating 40 others. In the other you are risking an equally sized stake at reduced odds to beat a retrospectively reduced size field.
In many cases you would do the place part of a bet at the relevant odds, if you didn't have to do the win part. If this is true, then it's also true to do the bet E/W if the odds ratio between the two elements (risk/reward) are right. After all, your the only one who can because you've already placed the win.
There's a good reason many on course bookmakers don't take E/W bets.
Think of it like this; you are a marksman a good one, hence your odds, and you have one bullet. The other 39 are marksman too, not as good as you, but with 39 times more chances of a sudden shift in the wind giving them a lucky shot.
On the place bet, the separate bet, you now have 5 bullets fired from the very same marksman against the other 39 lesser rivals.
 
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I've been up to my eyeballs in constant maturity swap futures all day and I was less confused in trying to model and execute those than I am with that Max.

I was concurring with DO regarding backing e/w shots in the race at around the 14/1 mark as I'd prefer to reduce my odds of getting some sort of return (5/4 if the place lands) and cop a £750 return from my two £50 win bets if either obliges.

Mainly because - and this is where this race is unique for me - I want an interest in the race for as long as possible and if Blaklion falls or gets brought down at the first I still have let's say for example, Cause of Causes running for me.

In other races I'd probably be focused on securing profit but no so much here as it's a one off and I can live with that.

The E/W doubles are clearly speculative but are exploiting the combined additional place terms.

Each to their own though.
 
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At best. I'd like to be wrong as I think it is grossly unfair artificially to soften the ground but that seems to be the policy.
 
Anyone have any information on when the best prices were generally available last year?


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TheBear said:
Anyone have any information on when the best prices were generally available last year?


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What do you mean? They'll be taking each other on Saturday morning like two teenage girls trying to get off with the doctors son in the school disco.
 
Yes but not sure if 365 entered into any of that given their offer. I want to max out with them before looking elsewhere.


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The money back offer will also apply to the 6 place market


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Scrap that I've just read the terms. I stupidly had a couple of lumpy bets with them yesterday. D'oh.
 
Katy Walsh stood down for the GN, Nick Scholfield rides Wonderful Charm


edit update broken arm
 
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