The 2017 Grand National

Those two defections are not unexpected given their exchange prices lately.

I noted others that seemed unlikely to run on the same basis: Aleclhi Inois, Foxrock, Regal Encore, Goodtoknow and The Romford Pele are significantly longer and I'm wondering about Tenor Nivernais and Cocktails At Dawn.

I take it the 5-day decs are due to be published around now?
 
Nine entries out

Carlingford Lough Alelchi Inois Foxrock Maggio Ziga Boy The Romford Pele Straidnahanna Sizing Coal Vics Canvas

Weights up 1lb

La Vaticane in 40th position
 
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edgt said:
Local boy Dave Noonan has got the ride on Ballynagour.
Wishing him all the best , having won on Dell Arca yesterday anything is possible.
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Just the type to go and win easily if he suddenly showed his best form. He was just getting on to Rule The World's quarters under a lovely quiet ride from Tom Scu last season when slightly unsighted at the fence and left his back legs in it, unseating the jockey. Seems to go well at the track and ran Silviniaco Conti to a photo in the Bowl two years ago. I took a bit over 100 last week.
 
Just to say i played golf about 300 metres from the canal turn yesterday, and although i always advocate that Aintree has great drainage, it was a complete bog still yesterday. Will have to stay sunny and dry all week for the ground to absorb that.
 
Forecast for rain all day today. I notice the going stick reading for the National course is 2 points lower than the Mildmay; they've been hammering it.
 
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It does so. Started raining about 2am, stopped around 7am. Now we have scattered cloud mixed with a fresh breeze and glorious sunshine.
 
archie said:
Looks like decent drying weather to me. It may still be soft on Thursday but good to soft by Saturday seems realistic.
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With the rest of the week now forecast to be similar to what we are seeing right now; there's no way they won't continue artificial watering.
 
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If the ground's likely to be on the good side Saint Are could run a big race. I'm a big fan of Double Shuffle and think he'll run well also, despite his tender age, so I wouldn't be too put off by Heskin opting for the younger horse over Saint Are and Davy's not a bad replacement to have on board.
 
I have been tracking Vicente for this since last April and am going to back him again tonight. That 4M Chase last year is the gift that just keeps giving and I backed Minella, Native and Vicente early on for the National on the basis of this belief and am staying strong.
 
Sorry for the total offtopic but @an capall does AIM still exist ? :lol: I have so many nice memories of AOL.. "Welcome Alex" oh such a joy to listen to that when opening my email 10-15 years ago :o
 
Desert Orchid said:
Has the name of the other participant been divulged?
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I know it as the person who bought it for present owners is a good friend, and he told me yesterday. Not sure if it is public knowledge or not . Not meaning to be a tease either. Obviously someone desperate/very keen to have a National runner this year.
 
an capall said:
I have been tracking Vicente for this since last April and am going to back him again tonight. That 4M Chase last year is the gift that just keeps giving
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So what would the pleasure of your dreams be?

Not telling the Pleasureofmydreams but they could be of the best handicapped horse in the race!!
 
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I think Blaklion is an incredible each way bet at 14/1.The trainer knows what it takes to win the race and missing Cheltenham says a lot.Due to be ridden by a jockey who is riding at the top of his game.I see him starting at about the 8/1 mark and it will be a big surprise to me if he isn't placed.
 
LUKE said:
I think Blaklion is an incredible each way bet at 14/1.The trainer knows what it takes to win the race and missing Cheltenham says a lot.Due to be ridden by a jockey who is riding at the top of his game.I see him starting at about the 8/1 mark and it will be a big surprise to me if he isn't placed.
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I think Luke's post is an excellent illustration of how people's perception of the race itself and value, not to mention their approach, can differ.

For me, Blaklion has a chance. Probably a decent chance. He does have a better than decent chance of being in the first five or six and if I were to limit myself to one bet in the race it might be one with a profile like his that I'd favour.

However, I could never bring myself to back a 14/1 shot each-way in the race. A tenner each-way would slightly more than double your money if it gets placed. I'm not sure I think it's worth it. I'd rather spend the place portion of the bet on a second horse with just as good a chance.

I'm already on a few in the race (at very nice odds) and will add more before the off. I don't see a problem with backing ten in the race if they're all at longer odds than their true chances and win for one will probably give a nice profit.

I'm in the process of eliminating the ones I like the least and hopefully will leave myself with a hopeful handful but the ones I'm immediately discounting are:

Shantou Flyer
Le Mercurey
Ucello Conti
Double Shuffle
Roi Des Francs
Highland Lodge
Saint Are
Just A Par
Gas Line Boy
Goodtoknow
La Vaticane
 
Desert Orchid said:
However, I could never bring myself to back a 14/1 shot each-way in the race. A tenner each-way would slightly more than double your money if it gets placed. I'm not sure I think it's worth it. I'd rather spend the place portion of the bet on a second horse with just as good a chance.
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Completely agree with that for singles. E/W doubles is another matter though and Blaklion is a decent one to have in those, if maybe a bit short in the betting.
 
I think that's a fair enough approach, DO, though I don't particularly see it as better/worse than backing a single horse each-way. I suspect that many punters just don't see the National as a race to seriously target (in terms of turning a profit), and will limit themselves to 'interest bets' only.

Counting back, I have backed 8 horses in the Nash, but only three will go to post (VLR, DR and Stellar Notion). The scratchings have to be factored in, and I will basically need one of the two faves to win (or HdBs horse placed) to show a profit. If you have backed ten, and all are going to get a run, then you are in much better shape than me, going into the race!!
 
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