The 2017 Grand National

Typical. I backed it last night :mad:

On the brighter side, it suggests Tony Martin (and those in the know) aren't obviously out to profit on the exchanges. When I took the 33/1 it was still only something like 30 on the exchange. Had it been 100+ I'd have been wary and held off.
 
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archie said:
Blaklion will be 3lb better off in April. Still available at 25/1.
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Vieux Lion Rouge went up to 155 for Saturday so he'll be officially 6lbs well in and favourite in nearly all lists.

However, Tenor Nivernais went up 10lbs for his Ascot romp so will be just 2lbs less well-in than The Last Samuri last year (8/1) and is generally 33/1, 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

That's helluva compensation for stamina doubts but Oli Bell was going on about how long it took Treadwell to pull him up on Saturday.
 
Neal1962 said:
1 They all be placed at 3 miles 3 furlongs or futher. The National is the longest race in the UK, and this eliminated most runs last year but kept the winner. It also found 75% of the last 20 winners, so is a very useful guide. :thumbsup:
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It wouldn't have found Many clouds or Ballabriggs. That's two out of the last half dozen or so. Not convincing enough for me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
However, Tenor Nivernais went up 10lbs for his Ascot romp so will be just 2lbs less well-in than The Last Samuri last year (8/1) and is generally 33/1, 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

That's helluva compensation for stamina doubts but Oli Bell was going on about how long it took Treadwell to pull him up on Saturday.
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From Simon Rowlands's latest Debrief:
The following weekend, Cue Card bounced back from his substandard run in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day with an emphatic win in the Betfair Ascot Chase.

It would be perverse to crab a 15-length success in a Grade 1 from a horse who has the best staying chase time of the season (in the Betfair Chase at Haydock), but consider this: there was a chase winner on the same card who ran a faster average speed and significantly faster closing sectionals than Cue Card despite covering nearly three furlongs further in all.

That horse was Tenor Nivernais, winner of a listed handicap off a BHA mark of 152 in a time nearly half a furlong quicker than recorded by Bigbadjohn in winning the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase at the same course and distance shortly before.

There may be doubts about Tenor Nivernais’ suitability for the Grand National at Aintree, and some incredulity as to where this effort suddenly came from, but there should be none about how spectacular an effort this was against the clock. It is a shame he is not in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
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The colour highlight is mine.
 
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Not sure it was that deep at Ascot. On the soft side maybe but not deep (will check tomorrow).

Remember too that they water to soften the ground these days. Ask Nicky Henderson!
 
The was 110 horses Otago Trail was out even before the weights were made known so a further 14 came out.

Outlander, Empire Of Dirt, Don Poli, Clarcam, Tiger Roll, A Toi Phil, The Game Changer, Triolo D’ Alene, Champagne West, Devils Bride, Tour Des Champ, Dromnea, Vieux Morvan & Gallant Oscar

Leaving

1 Carlingford Lough (IRE)
2 The Last Samuri (IRE)
3 Alary (FR)
4 Alelchi Inois (FR)
5 Minella Rocco (IRE)
6 More of That (IRE)
7Shantou Flyer (IRE)
8 Lord Scoundrel (IRE)
9 Perfect Candidate (IRE)
10 Saphir du Rheu (FR)
11 Road To Riches (IRE)
12Sausalito Sunrise (IRE)
13 Roi des Francs (FR)
14 Carole’s Destrier (GB)
15 Foxrock (IRE)
16 Wounded Warrior (IRE)
17 Wonderful Charm (FR)
18 Tenor Nivernais (FR)
19 Blaklion (GB)
20 Drop Out Joe (GB)
21 Le Mercurey (FR)
22 Maggio (FR)
23 The Young Master (GB)
24 Cause of Causes (USA)
25 Regal Encore (IRE)
26 Vieux Lion Rouge (FR)
27 Definitly Red (IRE)
28 Ucello Conti (FR)
29 Double Shuffle (IRE)
30 Houblon des Obeaux (FR)
31 Pleasant Company (IRE)
32 One For Arthur (IRE)
33 Ballynagour (IRE)
34 Junction Fourteen (IRE)
35 Vivaldi Collonges (FR)
36 O’Faolains Boy (IRE)
37 Highland Lodge (IRE)
38 Bishops Road (IRE)
39 Vics Canvas (IRE)
40 Lord Windermere (IRE)
41 Ziga Boy (FR)
42 Saint Are (FR)
43 Vicente (FR)
44 Measureofmydreams (IRE)
45 Raz de Maree (FR)
46 Stellar Notion (IRE)
47 Just A Par (IRE)
48 Rogue Angel (IRE)
49 Shutthefrontdoor (IRE)
50 Pendra (IRE)
51 Cocktails At Dawn (GB)
52 As de Mee (FR)
53 Seventh Sky (GER)
54 The Romford Pele (IRE)
55 Thunder And Roses (IRE)
56 Gas Line Boy (IRE)
57 Goodtoknow (GB)
58 La Vaticane (FR)
59 Doctor Harper (IRE)
60 Bless The Wings (IRE)
61Knock House (IRE)
62 Hadrian’s Approach (IRE)
63 Sambremont (FR)
64 Potters Cross (GB)
65 Benbens (IRE)
66 Straidnahanna (IRE)
67 Viva Steve (IRE)
68Polidam (FR)
69 Lamb Or Cod (IRE)
70 Milansbar (IRE)
71 Cloudy Too (IRE)
72 Vyta du Roc (FR)
73 Streets of Promise (IRE)
74 Beeves (IRE)
75 Royale Knight (GB)
76 Out Sam (GB)
77 Sizing Coal (IRE)
78 Goulanes (IRE)
79 Lessons In Milan (IRE)
80 Alfie Spinner (IRE)
81 Emperor’s Choice (IRE)
82 Mountain King (GB)
83 Dare To Endeavour (GB)
84 Silver Man (GB)
85 Father Edward (IRE)
86 Samingarry (FR)
87Alvarado (IRE)
88 Milborough (IRE)
89 The Crafty Butcher (IRE)
90 Waldorf Salad (GB)
91 Katenko (FR)
92 Federici (GB)
93 Gone Too Far (GB)
94 Racing Pulse (IRE)
95 Killer Crow (IRE)

Weights are currently up by 4 pounds.
 
True to their word Giggs have removed EOD, Don Poli and Outlander. 95 go forward, basically what Neal has posted above.
 
OK, folks, now that Cheltenham is over bar the post-portems it's time to bump this thread and start talking seriously about the National again...
 
Think there are enough reasons to suspect that Roi des Francs will run better than his odds (66/1 or 50/1)

Measureofmydreams is the odd one out from the finish of the 4m last year.

Gigginstown protesting too much.
 
In years gone by you'd think 11 1/2 stone would prevent him from winning but it's likely he'll only have to give just over half a stone away to those at the foot of the weights and you'd have to think he wins with a clear round as he'll have no problem with the trip or the ground given he seems versatile regarding that.

Just kicking myself for not backing him for it before yesterday as I've been meaning to but instead had a small win only bet oh him the Gold Cup. Couldn't have worked out any worse really.
 
Minella Rocco is only 7. He'd be really up against it. The National is an entirely different test from the NH 4-miler and even the Gold Cup. Don't forget, Master Oats won the Welsh National and Gold Cup and couldn't win the National. Garrison Savannah won the Gold Cup and couldn't win the National off something like 157.
 
Marble said:
The Young Master? 6th at The Festival, so coming into a nice bit of form.
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Back of my head keeps telling me that missing from or disappointing form at the festival equates to much better form for Aintree - haven't got the stats but offhand Rule the World, Neptune Collonges , Many Clouds, Ballabriggs, Dont Push It. Synchronised showing the inverse and can only remember Pineau de Re bucking the trend to an extent.

So am avoiding Minella Rocco, Cause of Causes, Bless the Wings, Saphir de Rheu (?), Pendra ...

Young Master is one of those inbetween with so-so form at the festival well beaten 6th however he had only one run at Aintree and was struggling before coming down - it sticks in my mind not just because I backed him there, but with confidence as Sam Waley-Cohen who up to that point had never failed to get round Aintrees fences !
 
Blaklion. Ran a smashing trial at Haydock, his RSA win doesn't look quite as bad now as it did at the start of the season and the run that gets me interested is the one where he chinned Defintly Red at Wetherby last year giving that horse half a stone on really deep ground.
 
Tiny Clanger said:
Back of my head keeps telling me that missing from or disappointing form at the festival equates to much better form for Aintree - haven't got the stats but offhand Rule the World, Neptune Collonges , Many Clouds, Ballabriggs, Dont Push It. Synchronised showing the inverse and can only remember Pineau de Re bucking the trend to an extent.

So am avoiding Minella Rocco, Cause of Causes, Bless the Wings, Saphir de Rheu (?), Pendra ...

Young Master is one of those inbetween with so-so form at the festival well beaten 6th however he had only one run at Aintree and was struggling before coming down - it sticks in my mind not just because I backed him there, but with confidence as Sam Waley-Cohen who up to that point had never failed to get round Aintrees fences !
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I'd be interested in seeing those stats. West Tip, Rough Quest and Miinnehoma all ran well in the Gold Cup. I'm sure there will have been others.

The Druids Nephew looked like hacking up two years ago onto to slither on landing five out.

I don't doubt some trainers will use Cheltenham as a final prep but I would let a good run there put me off.
 
There's a definite trend DO, just complied records but only going back 18 years on ATR profiles so they are below, the ones you mention go back 20+ years - missing means "missing that year at the festival". There's only really Silver Birch that stand out as done well at the festival chases then onto GN.

A good performance at the festival seems to have taken it out of the horse, A dissappointing/so-so festival one seems to indicate it can do OK. Skipping the Festival indicates significantly higher win-rate. I'm definitely using it as a filter, need whittling down - FWIW I'm already on VLR and Come on Arthur before the festival.

2016 Rule the World (missing)
* 2015 Many Clouds (GC fancied but 6th by 25l)
* 2014 Pineau de Re (3rd in Pertemps Hurdle !)
2013 Auroras Encore (missing)
2012 Neptune Collonges (missing)
2011 Ballabriggs (missing)
2010 Dont Push It (missing)
* 2009 Mon mome (3rd GC a bunched 23l to imperial commander,denman !)
2008 comply or die (missing)
* 2007 silver birch (2nd x-country)
2006 numbersixvalverde (missing)
2005 hedgehunter (missing)
2004 amberleigh house (missing)
2003 monty's pass (missing)
2002 bindaree (missing)
2001 red marauder (missing)
2000 papillon (missing)
1999 bobbyjo (missing)
 
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So basically you've got 3 placed, 1 unplaced and the rest missing the festival.

Difficult to see that as a trend.


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Still works for me though TB, 2 of the placed weren't exactly close finishes the other in a hurdle is a bit freaky - that's why am singling out Silver Birch.
 
Still on the National, just a reminder that some horses are going to turn up on the day officially very well in.

Tenor Nivernais will be 10lbs well in for his Ascot win.

Vieux Lion Rouge will be 6lbs well in.

Definitely Red 10lbs.

You really need to have these types on your side otherwise you're defying the logic of handicapping.

My best guess is that the handicapper will rate the Gold Cup via Native River (168 going into the Gold Cup) and Djakadam (165). I reckon he'll leave Native River on his mark so will raise SDR (156) to about the 165/166 mark, a rise of 9/10lbs. Minella Rocco will go up 12lbs or so and there has to be the chance that he will be the first 7yo to win the race since 1940 and nowadays they don't hunt round for a circuit and then race for a circuit. They go the whole way and that requires physical maturity but maybe Minella Rocco is more mature than your average 7yo.

Remember, too, that a pound in the National is worth about two lengths so these well in horses are at a considerable advantage. If it was an ordinary Saturday handicap the'd be short-priced favourites. For further evidence, Native River got to race off the same mark in the Welsh National as he had done in the Hennessy. That in itself is something worth bearing in mind for next season. Might a new trend emerge whereby the Hennessy-Welsh National double (must be worth the best part of £400k - almost as much as winning the Grand National itself) is a target?
 
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Tiny Clanger said:
There's a definite trend DO, just complied records but only going back 18 years on ATR profiles so they are below, the ones you mention go back 20+ years - missing means "missing that year at the festival". There's only really Silver Birch that stand out as done well at the festival chases then onto GN.

A good performance at the festival seems to have taken it out of the horse, A dissappointing/so-so festival one seems to indicate it can do OK. Skipping the Festival indicates significantly higher win-rate. I'm definitely using it as a filter, need whittling down - FWIW I'm already on VLR and Come on Arthur before the festival.

2016 Rule the World (missing)
* 2015 Many Clouds (GC fancied but 6th by 25l)
* 2014 Pineau de Re (3rd in Pertemps Hurdle !)
2013 Auroras Encore (missing)
2012 Neptune Collonges (missing)
2011 Ballabriggs (missing)
2010 Dont Push It (missing)
* 2009 Mon mome (3rd GC a bunched 23l to imperial commander,denman !)
2008 comply or die (missing)
* 2007 silver birch (2nd x-country)
2006 numbersixvalverde (missing)
2005 hedgehunter (missing)
2004 amberleigh house (missing)
2003 monty's pass (missing)
2002 bindaree (missing)
2001 red marauder (missing)
2000 papillon (missing)
1999 bobbyjo (missing)
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Mon mome finished 3rd in the GC in 2010, He didn't run at the festival in 09 when he won at Aintree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Might a new trend emerge whereby the Hennessy-Welsh National double (must be worth the best part of £400k - almost as much as winning the Grand National itself) is a target?
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Note to self - whatever you back for the Hennessy make sure you back it ante-post for the Welsh National too...
 
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