The 2020 Longshot Thread

Probably just the market adjusting to the slightly smaller field with the final decs but I notice Max Vega is blue in a number of places and 40s tops. I might go in again at that price if I can get the extra place.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Probably just the market adjusting to the slightly smaller field with the final decs but I notice Max Vega is blue in a number of places and 40s tops. I might go in again at that price if I can get the extra place.
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Drawn in historically favoured stall 7
 
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Magnetic force 745 navan 50/1

Won the race last year off 3lb lower and followed up off 1lb higher.wasnt beaten that far behind njord last time.50s look generous.
And I will be checking the extra place market.
 
Good spot, Outsider, and a fine example of what this thread can turn up.
I will have a dabble on Magnetic Force. I have already backed Tauran Shaman at 8’s last evening. Looked to me last time out to be clearing the pipes in readiness for a run although not as soon as this. Since I have had a brief, and much needed, good run recently fuelled by the performance of the Harrington team I have a worthwhile bet so now one to add for the forecast.
 
Didn't need those extra places mate what a pick. I've seen some guys big themselves up online over the years but you are quiet, humble and one of the best judges I've seen. Top man !
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've had a look at the Derby ahead of the final dec stage tomorrow just to see if I can steal anything at a price.

I've taken Max Vega at 50/1.

He finished his 2yo season rated 110, higher than most of his rivals this weekend. On his return at Kempton he was shorter in the betting (100/30) than both Berlin Tango (7/1 rated 98, RPR for winning 108) and Pyledriver (40/1, 103, 104). The former improved at Ascot in finishing third to Russian Emperor, who is fancied by some on here, to an RPR of 111 and is now rated 110. Pyledriver also improved to win at Ascot and is also now rated 110.

The Beckett yard was in dreadful form at the time and I would expect significant improvement on that effort. Beckett is adamant the colt will stay 12f 'on his head' with plenty of stamina in the female line.

On the down side, it remains to be seen if he has developed well enough physically but Beckett isn't one for tilting at windmills in big races having won the Oaks with the 96-rated Talent back in the day and won the St Leger with Simple Verse more recently.

I can't help thinking he wouldn't have left Max Vega in the race for a bit of fun. With so many doubts over so many others, there has to be a chance he could progress well beyond his 110 mark, in which case he could have a squeak.
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Missed the price on this, but like the angle Maurice. I backed Talent at the time with similar thoughts. I'll follow/curse you with this albeit at 28/1. Good luck mate :thumbsup:
 
I've done two cliff horses in the 305 Naas.
gopsies daughter 20/1 is so well hcapped.now 21 lb below its last winning mark.
The other is Straffan 66/1 I was confident this horse would win a race but so far it hasnt really threatened.will have to look at the extra place market.
 
Haydock 2.40 Byron's Choice 33/1. Lower odds are available to four places but still qualify for the thread. This one was running well in races of this nature off 91 and 93 last season and gets in here off 87, probably an over-reaction to a poor return performance last month. He should probably be a single-figure price on his best form.
 
Haydock 3.50 Sacred Belief 66/1 - I only looked at this race as part of the ITV7 otherwise it is a barge-pole job.

However, I noticed RP man Ben Hutton tipped it in the Spotlight section so since he has spent time looking at the race and decided this was worth selecting I've taken it in the comp. He probably wasn't anticipating 66/1 being available but you never know.

Anyroads, here's his synopsis:

Given this week's rain a chance is taken on SACRED BELIEF. She showed just minor promise at Lingfield on last month's debut but the dam's side of her pedigree suggests soft ground will suit and that could be a major plus.
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I've been unable to resist a little sickness insurance on Dolphin Vista at 50/1 in this 3.00 at Epsom. Local trainer and I've put it up before only for it to let me down.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 2.40 Byron's Choice 33/1. Lower odds are available to four places but still qualify for the thread. This one was running well in races of this nature off 91 and 93 last season and gets in here off 87, probably an over-reaction to a poor return performance last month. He should probably be a single-figure price on his best form.
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Got involved in the over-fast pace. Principals came from the back. Forgivable.
 
I can't see past Love in the Oaks but I managed to get 20/1 ew Passion in the market without Love but I've also taken 33/1 in the full market.

I think plenty of those shorter in the market won't be true stayers.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't see past Love in the Oaks .
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Just couldn't understand how anybody could fancy anything else in the race. Only danger was Moore fvcking it up, which is the main reason I din't back it, but even I would have won on that.

Impressive winner of a pish race.
 
I find myself being drawn towards a lot of shortish single-figure-priced horses today but will have a small saver on Frankuus (Haydock 3.15) who probably shouldn't be 50/1, certainly not on his best form. That, though, is probably the rub. He was taken out of training but is now with O'Meara. Gelded since his final run last season, his better run was first time up. The ground might not suit but he won on it in his youth and was taken out of a race last week because of fast ground. Maybe there was a physical problem that gelding has sorted and, by the way, he was 3/3 here for Mark Johnston.
 
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I knew you were going to put this up today i sort of made the same case myself, its certainly one that could go horribly wrong but if anyone can pull a master stroke like that its O'meara. Its certainly a strange move to send him over the mile and a half first time up perhaps he thinks being gelded has settled him down a bit.

I'll be watching with interest D.O good luck.
 
I was pleased to see Frankuus go forward from the start the other day and equally saddened to see him pull up, the jockey reporting that he lost his action. Fortunately, the horse was reported sound after the race and maybe the jockey's caution will pay dividends in due course. I imagine when next week's ORs are published he'll have been dropped a few pounds so the cloud might come with a silver lining.

As for today, I don't have any single longshots but I've dabbled in doubles for the sake of an interest.

At Market Rasen, Highly Prized (9/2) and my old pal San Benedeto (10/1) will pay 54/1 if both win as I hope.

Highly Prized, remember, was still close up at the last in the Betfair when hampered right out of the race. A repeat of that promise would probably be good enough to win here.

San Benedeto is better than a handicapper when they let him loose. If he's been trained for this he just needs to be close to his last win to be good enough.

Ghostwatch (3.00 Nwm, 11/1) and Global Storm (3.35 Nwm, 11/2) are better than the bare results at Ascot and represent a team in superb form. These races represent a drop in class for them an the double pays 77/1.

And, as the British women used to say during the war, I feel a Yankee coming on. :)
 
Found one.

Nwm 2.25 Chica Bella 50/1 ew & 33/1 w/o Dandalla. Shame there are only two places going (none for the w/o bet at that price) and the favs look strong but CB has a time rating that puts her in the mix if it can be trusted.

At least it will give me a wee interest in a race that doesn't otherwise grab me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
At Market Rasen, Highly Prized (9/2) and my old pal San Benedeto (10/1) will pay 54/1 if both win as I hope.

Highly Prized, remember, was still close up at the last in the Betfair when hampered right out of the race. A repeat of that promise would probably be good enough to win here.

San Benedeto is better than a handicapper when they let him loose. If he's been trained for this he just needs to be close to his last win to be good enough.
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Pretty disappointing efforts, I have to say, especially San Benedeto who clearly didn't come here today to win otherwise it was a pretty amateurish bit of race-riding from Bryony Frost.
 
Batting on regardless...

Tomorrow in the July Cup I've taken 40/1 Shine So Bright. He went stupidly fast last week over the 7f at Epsom but was some way clear three out and two out. He wasn't as far clear one out but he was in front of a good horse in Safe Voyage. I'm not suggesting he will beat the more-fancied ones at the top of the market but it isn't a high-class field on ORs, the top being on a par with Safe Voyage. It's a G2 on ratings and if he runs as fast for 6f as he did last week - he must have been close to the 6f standard - he could be involved.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Batting on regardless...

Tomorrow in the July Cup I've taken 40/1 Shine So Bright. He went stupidly fast last week over the 7f at Epsom but was some way clear three out and two out. He wasn't as far clear one out but he was in front of a good horse in Safe Voyage. I'm not suggesting he will beat the more-fancied ones at the top of the market but it isn't a high-class field on ORs, the top being on a par with Safe Voyage. It's a G2 on ratings and if he runs as fast for 6f as he did last week - he must have been close to the 6f standard - he could be involved.
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15:35 Newmarket

Shine So Bright 33/1 is another I’m hoping the ground dries up for since his optimum conditions would be good or quicker. The forecast is looking as though it might be kind, so it could work out.

He raced with plenty of his old zest at Epsom last week and, on his day, he can mix it at this level.

Trainer
 
410 Nm NO NONSENSE 50/1
Finished 2nd to calyx last year.slow away in the wokingham but dropped 4lb and G.Mosse travels over from france.
 
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