The 2021 Grand National

Diamond Geezer said:
Crazy yes, Ballyoptic failed to reach its reserve of £180k just now.
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That's quite a reserve too. I suppose it amounts to an attempt at a safe gamble by the owners: get 180+k now or keep the horse and hope to win about 400k in the National. If it were to win they'd be as well retiring it as its handicap mark would be donald-ducked by doing so.

That would reassure me since I do have a small interest at 100/1 ante-post. It's maybe not the reject the idea of selling it would make out.

I suppose, then, you could argue along similar lines for Balko DF. Giggi will no doubt have better-fancied runners but 110k is a better payout than a minor placing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's quite a reserve too. I suppose it amounts to an attempt at a safe gamble by the owners: get 180+k now or keep the horse and hope to win about 400k in the National. If it were to win they'd be as well retiring it as its handicap mark would be donald-ducked by doing so.

That would reassure me since I do have a small interest at 100/1 ante-post. It's maybe not the reject the idea of selling it would make out.

I suppose, then, you could argue along similar lines for Balko DF. Giggi will no doubt have better-fancied runners but 110k is a better payout than a minor placing.
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The number of horses with absolutely no chance of winning a national, and only there as they are out of other options, hurts the race. Its not as bad as a few years ago thankfully. Didn't Blacklion go for a crazy amount. Giggingstown and Twiston-Davies know the buttons to press.
 
I have loved him since his first novice hurdle which was controversial at the time.Twice placed at the festival he has always threatened to do something special.Personally I would make him a 14/1 shot -there is plenty of juice in 33/1nrnb.
 
I did my first full trawl of the weights this evening and took another two ante-post pops, both NRNB, just in case.

Hogan's Height 50/1 - This one has gone under the radar, it seems. He fairly ran away with the Grand Sefton last season and went up 12lbs for it so would possibly have made the cut. That was his only run over fences in the last two seasons until plodding around in rear in the X-Country last week but that outing was probably just a fun run. I can't help thinking they've been minding his mark as he might just have been a sudden improver. Being a winner over the big fences - and stylishly - might cause once-a-year punters to latch on to him and he'll almost certainly get plenty of mentions before the race because of it, plus his syndicate story is the type of thing ITV will latch on to, which might bring the price down a bit.

On a more serious level, Farclas 33/1 - I've had my eye on this one for quite some time but really with next year's renewal in mind since he's only seven. As with five-year-olds in the Champion Hurdle, I have an aversion to seven-year-olds in the National but I backed Lord Du Mesnil last year despite it. Farclas was quite unlucky the time before last at Leopardstown whe a mistake two out cost him ground and momentum and last week he clipped heels and stumbled turning for home. I wouldn't suggest he would have beaten The Shunter but he would have been further clear in second. His stamina would have to be taken on trust but he'll be 3lbs well in and it would have been more but for that stumble. I went high with my figures for last week's race so I know he'll be near the very top of my figures. A bit of me hopes they keep him back until next year, hence my keenness to take NRNB, as I reckon if they mind his mark for a year he'd be potentially another 10lbs well in. But they might just decide to let him rip this year.
 
I've wasted a few quid on a few.
The jam man 66s boosted to 70s thought I had 100/1 but no.
Milan native 50/1
Potters corner 25/1 nrnb
Discorama 40 win on betfair
Le breuil 250 win on bf
Dounikova 1,000 win on betfair
Cabaret queen 100/1
Beware the bear 100/1
 
I always think that Magic of Light is so genuine and dependable that people overlook her. I’ve actually got more ante post bets than I’d realised that she’s one of them along with The Jam Man, Definitely Red, Lord du Mesnil, Any Second Now and a few other that won’t get in anyway. Just annoyed that I didn’t back Cloth Cap and don’t really understand why I didn’t but I’d love him to win both for his owner and his jockey.
 
Magic Of Light is one I still have to check back beyond last season. She would have gone very close to winning the 2019 race but for that blunder at the last. She's another whose form yoyos a bit as she spends most of her time contesting iffy mares' hurdles races. Still, she'll be only 5lbs higher than when second to Tiger Roll in what was a very strong renewal and we know she stays and can handle the fences. There's a lot to like about her.
 
I really like Any Second Now for this race. He's such a classy type and has been campaigned with a National in mind for years.
 
Slim said:
I really like Any Second Now for this race. He's such a classy type and has been campaigned with a National in mind for years.
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Serious chance.

The other night when I took my Lincoln bet on River Nymph I decided I also wanted to double it up with something for the National, just in case luck favoured me. It was between Any Second Now and Burrows Saint. I thought of doing both but settled for the latter, another who has been campaigned with just this race in mind.

I can always console myself that I took 25/1 Any Second Now a couple of days after the weights came out and before he impressed in a good 2m race. He'll have the pace to race prominently and his Kim Muir win didn't exactly cast any doubts on his stamina. Admittedly it didn't prove it either but those are the chances we take.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Crazy yes, Ballyoptic failed to reach its reserve of £180k just now.
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I find it amazing anyone had the foresight to take 100/1 about his in the 30 minutes that price was available 2 or 3 days before before the sale but never once mentioned the horse in this thread beforehand.

To be honest I don't know how members can cope with the constant flow of **** that flows out of the member in questions gob......since he blocked me for exposing his shyte before and nothing has changed...I am taking a holiday as I am sick to death of his garbage dominating every other thread...see you all around Xmas
 
Desert Orchid said:
Surely Kimberlite Candy's odds nearer/on the day will depend a lot on who rides?

If one of JP's main jockeys ends up on one of the others KC might be ignored to an extent.

I don't imagine there will be the same clamour for what should probably no longer be referred to as the "housewives' choice" but I would expect bookmakers to manufacture false gambles to sucker punters in to taking poor value about horses that have been bummed up along the way by ITV.

There will almost certainly be 'the Rachael factor' and 'the Bryony factor' but no doubt the people behind the scenes at ITV will be researching what will end up feelgood/fairytale scenarios that 'make good TV'.

You know, the nurse who recovered from Covid but then went blind and got a guide dog called Hogan and wouldn't it just be 'wonderful for the sport' if Hogan's Heights won the Grand National...
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Pretty sure mcclernon booked , which is why they got Tom scu at the beginning of the season for cloth cap
 
I find that so much easier to forgive, maybe because it soon became obvious what a herculean task Crisp had been attempting.

It's a race I remember very fondly even though I thought Crisp was a cert.
 
Tanlic said:
I find it amazing anyone had the foresight to take 100/1 about his in the 30 minutes that price was available 2 or 3 days before before the sale but never once mentioned the horse in this thread beforehand.

To be honest I don't know how members can cope with the constant flow of **** that flows out of the member in questions gob......since he blocked me for exposing his shyte before and nothing has changed...I am taking a holiday as I am sick to death of his garbage dominating every other thread...see you all around Xmas
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Wouldn't sweat it,.Fist. Some get their rocks off seeing their name in lights.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I find that so much easier to forgive, maybe because it soon became obvious what a herculean task Crisp had been attempting.

It's a race I remember very fondly even though I thought Crisp was a cert.
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I had crisp at 33/1 in a double with comedy of errors 10/1 champion hurdle.
Crisp was 33/1 fav at christmas.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Surely Kimberlite Candy's odds nearer/on the day will depend a lot on who rides?

If one of JP's main jockeys ends up on one of the others KC might be ignored to an extent.
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Kimberlite Candy is Richie McLernon's mount, he's ridden him in his last 10 rides, 2 of which were over the GN fences...
 
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Maxbet said:
Kimberlite Candy is Richie McLernon's mount, he's ridden him in his last 10 rides, 2 of which were over the GN fences...
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In that case there's no reason for his price to change other than weight of money for it.

JP looks to have an exceptionally strong hand this year. Anibale Fly and Any Second Now look particularly well handicapped to me and cases can be made for Minella Times, Canelo and OK Corral. At seven, The Long Mile might be too young, if he runs.
 
They're aiming at the infrequent punters who won't accept backing a 4/1 chance in the National as it is a "horrible price" irrespective of the horse's true chances of winning and therefore want to bet on bigger priced horses (losers) each way.

But as Slim said, their overround will be outrageous and it may actually be worth taking SP, which is never normally the case with the National.

I prefer to Dutch two or three as opposed to backing each way anyhow, with the odd exception and I do like to e/w double with the Masters offering 10 places. It doesn't matter if I'm being offered 39 places if my horse falls or is brought down
 
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