The 2021 Grand National

I’m not sure as to how they’ve been establishing SP in the absence of the ring. I do notice that SP is often the shaved last price offered by my guys and the other way round is a rarity.
 
barjon said:
I’m not sure as to how they’ve been establishing SP in the absence of the ring. I do notice that SP is often the shaved last price offered by my guys and the other way round is a rarity.
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What do you mean by "my guys"?
 
barjon said:
I’m not sure as to how they’ve been establishing SP in the absence of the ring. I do notice that SP is often the shaved last price offered by my guys and the other way round is a rarity.
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Not an exercise I'd recommend at industry prices, but a few years ago I showed that level stakes ew on the first 10 in the market would have shown a profit in 8 out 10 Grand Nationals; a little more scientific than any scattergun approach, and probably more profitable. However, the race has changed since then, but there was no BOG, either.
 
Marcus Armytage has a decent article in Sunday Independent today about the lass who led up Nickel Coin in 1951., the last mare to win led up by the first stable lass to lead up a big race winner.
She later gave birth to trainer Graham Motion.
The article is behind a wall but should be accessed on Muckrack later , or The Telegragh website.
 
I have a theory that if a front runner gets to the better ground in the last three furlongs first it can get first chance to quicken and take ground out of those behind who might still be trying to go with it when they're still racing on softer ground.

The effect may be marginal but it might be there.

I tend to use it on the Flat at Ascot rather than anywhere else, though, because I think the difference between the round course and the straight one there is more pronounced.

Still, the going map there has me thinking...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have a theory that if a front runner gets to the better ground in the last three furlongs first it can get first chance to quicken and take ground out of those behind who might still be trying to go with it when they're still racing on softer ground.

The effect may be marginal but it might be there.

I tend to use it on the Flat at Ascot rather than anywhere else, though, because I think the difference between the round course and the straight one there is more pronounced.

Still, the going map there has me thinking...
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So which front runner do you think will get there first:


Bristol De Mai
Yala Enki
Magic Of Light
Acapella Bourgeois
Mister Malarky
Kimberlite Candy
Pym
Alpha Des Obeaux
Brahma Bull
Lord Du Mesnil
Cloth Cap
Cabaret Queen
Ami Desboi
Crievehill

We know what a lottery the start can be...but all of them can go some from the off
 
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If a front runner can "quicken" after running 4 miles then they have gotten the softest lead in the history of racing!!

Sent from my SM-J415FN using Tapatalk
 
Maxbet said:
So which front runner do you think will get there first:


Bristol De Mai
Yala Enki
Magic Of Light
Acapella Bourgeois
Mister Malarky
Kimberlite Candy
Pym
Alpha Des Obeaux
Brahma Bull
Lord Du Mesnil
Cloth Cap
Cabaret Queen
Ami Desboi
Crievehill

We know what a lottery the start can be...but all of them can go some from the off
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Are those confirmed front runners?

If so, thanks for doing the research for me :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Are those confirmed front runners?

If so, thanks for doing the research for me :lol:
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I knew that without research, watched them enough times...

But you still can't predict which horse will lead over the first...A lottery to who leads....Even Scu won't compromise Cloth Cap's chances by teararsing to the first..
 
I had no intention of doing so. Just offering a theory that the going map reminded me of.

If I ended up looking for a reason to put more on one fancy than another I might have thought a little about it but who knows what will happen with the weather and the watering policy.

As it is, I'm already on several ante-post at nice odds and will really only be looking for 'cover' bets by next Saturday.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had no intention of doing so. Just offering a theory that the going map reminded me of.

If I ended up looking for a reason to put more on one fancy than another I might have thought a little about it but who knows what will happen with the weather and the watering policy.

As it is, I'm already on several ante-post at nice odds and will really only be looking for 'cover' bets by next Saturday.
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A good theory for in-running betting though...

Don't worry about the weather...the going will definitely be G/Soft

Expect those horses that require deep ground and a severe test, to drift badly on the day...conversely so for the faster ground lovers!
 
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Maxbet said:
I knew that without research, watched them enough times...

But you still can't predict which horse will lead over the first...A lottery to who leads....Even Scu won't compromise Cloth Cap's chances by teararsing to the first..
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Need to take Kimberlite Candy out of the list though
 
Defections


Beware The Bear
Pym
Brahma Bull
Treacyenniscorthy
The Jam Man
Achille
Santini
Keeper Hill
Gold Present

Ami Desbois is now number 40
 
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