The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I've gone for another longshot in the Lincoln - Librisa Breeze 66/1 7 pl - this is an old 'pal' of mine so there's an element of sickness insurance involved in this bet but his OR hit 119 at his peak and it went back up to 113 in the summer of 2019 when he ran well in the Hungerford. He's been off the track for over a year so has presumably been injured but this is actually his first run since a wind op last April. I'm just intrigued that they've chosen a £100k race in which to bring him back to the track. That Hungerford run was his seasonal debut after over nine months off so he can go well first time up. He's only off 102 now.
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And another...

Graphite 100/1 6 pl - in his second and third season in France, under the care of Andre Fabre for Godolphin, he ran six times in total, five of them at G2 or G3 level and for which he was never any more than 6/1. In the last three of those rus he got RPRs of 110, 110 and 113, indicating possible improvement. He hit 113 the following season as well but underwent a midsummer absence, presumably through injury. The following summer he presumably had his issues as Godolphin got rid of him and he moved to Simon Crisford but he never made the track for his new owners. His new owner-trainer has tons of experience with Godolphin and Varian so I wouldn't let any lack of familiarity with the name put me off.

But maybe the horse just has issues.
 
Doncaster 2.00 Qaysar 22/1 - I had my eye on this midweek as a possible each-way shot at 16/1 but hadn't checked the market since. I now see it's blue across the board but 22/1 in a few places so happy to put it on the thread. He wouldn't be my main fancy in the race but he's top on my ratings. I do think he's vulnerable to improvers but if that improvement doesn't happen he could win by default and he's a CD winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And another...

Graphite 100/1 6 pl - in his second and third season in France, under the care of Andre Fabre for Godolphin, he ran six times in total, five of them at G2 or G3 level and for which he was never any more than 6/1. In the last three of those rus he got RPRs of 110, 110 and 113, indicating possible improvement. He hit 113 the following season as well but underwent a midsummer absence, presumably through injury. The following summer he presumably had his issues as Godolphin got rid of him and he moved to Simon Crisford but he never made the track for his new owners. His new owner-trainer has tons of experience with Godolphin and Varian so I wouldn't let any lack of familiarity with the name put me off.

But maybe the horse just has issues.
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Jason Weaver's selection on the morning show. Now 33s tops after shortening gradually since the other day.
 
I've had a quiet week. I had my lung x-ray yesterday which was the main thing. I'm hoping for a good result when the results are back next week.

I've done Howzer Black in the spring mile. He's been in the first three the last six starts, this is a massive step up in class, but he's just the type of usually frustrating lower grade horse that may thrive in a bigger race off a lighter weight. A claimer takes off another 5 pounds.

We'll see.
 
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Marb said:
I've had a quiet week. I had my lung x-ray yesterday which was the main thing. I'm hoping for a good result when the results are back next week.

I've done Howzer Black in the spring mile. He's been in the first three the last six starts, this is a massive step up in class, but he's just the type of usually frustrating lower grade horse that may thrive in a bigger race off a lighter weight. A claimer takes off another 5 pounds.

We'll see.
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Got fingers crossed for you, Marb.
 
Marb said:
I've had a quiet week. I had my lung x-ray yesterday which was the main thing. I'm hoping for a good result when the results are back next week.

I've done Howzer Black in the spring mile. He's been in the first three the last six starts, this is a massive step up in class, but he's just the type of usually frustrating lower grade horse that may thrive in a bigger race off a lighter weight. A claimer takes off another 5 pounds.

We'll see.
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Ran really well for you, Marb. Nice shout.
 
We all have views on horses,some right,most wrong but when I first started watching for eye catchers a horse caught my eye in Ireland I was certain wasnt trying with a view to hcaps.it took him a long time but eventually it won.i think it was backed from 12s into 6s and guess what,I missed it.well it is now down to run in the topham so I've risked a little,no point lumping on in case it doesnt run.
SNUGSBOROUGH HALL 25/1 and a little win on betfair at 79/1.
 
Irish Grand National - Top Moon 33/1 5pl - Right now I wouldn't say it's going to be my main fancy in the race but it wouldn't be far off it if it makes the cut. Rated 146 here as a novice over hurdles last season, he could reasonably have been expected to progress into a 156 novice chaser this season but they've kept him largely under the radar, only really letting him off the leash once, in the £100k Matheson at the DRF when he lost out in a photo. He's 5lbs higher here on 136 but there might be a lot more to come stepped up significantly in distance (Spanish Moon/Martaline).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish Grand National - Top Moon 33/1 5pl - Right now I wouldn't say it's going to be my main fancy in the race but it wouldn't be far off it if it makes the cut. Rated 146 here as a novice over hurdles last season, he could reasonably have been expected to progress into a 156 novice chaser this season but they've kept him largely under the radar, only really letting him off the leash once, in the £100k Matheson at the DRF when he lost out in a photo. He's 5lbs higher here on 136 but there might be a lot more to come stepped up significantly in distance (Spanish Moon/Martaline).
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Would be safe to assume he'll get in. Might even be number 30.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yesterday I backed Mother Earth 25/1 for the 1000G. (I might have put it on the ante-post thread - if I didn't I meant to.)

I was checking out Simon Rowlands's blog on cadence/frequency and something caught my eye and when checking it out I came across Mother Earth's run at Keeneland and I think she would probably get a big mark-up for it so she might end up the Coolmore #1 for the race.
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Two months ahead of Timeform :) They are tipping her for the Guineas.
 
I've gone in again much more heavily on Mother Earth at 20/1. I reckon once subscribers to Timeform's Horse to Follow booklet peruse it they'll nibble away at the price and the odds will contract. By how much I've no idea.

Back in January, I also took ME in an ew ante-post yankee with Battlegound (2000Gns), High Definition (Derby) and Santa Barbara (Oaks).
 
Saturday, Fairyhouse 4.05 Golden Spear 22/1 - I won't go into the whys and wherefores for now but if this is 'off' it is a good thing. Not many bookies are offering odds right now but if it goes longer generally and extra places open up I'll be piling in again.
 
Slim said:
Not being smart but does anyone care what Timeform fancies anymore?
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I think the people that make the market tissues do. I also think most of the racing media pundits do too as most of them seem to base their selections around Timeform ratings/comments.

ITV recently introduced Timeform ratings to their programmes too.

But that's not why I bought the 'Fifty' book. I bought it because I had some 'free' money in my Amazon account and, although the writing isn't as good as it used to be, it's still usually the best-written racing stuff out there.
 
Yeah, you always got the feeling in the old days that Timeform was the love-child of Phil Bull and Dick Whitford with quality the most important part of the operation. They didn’t seem to mind half the population of Halifax wandering around with free (pinched) copies of the Black Book in their pockets either!

After them it sort of languished - although still pretty good - until it was given a new lease of life when Betfair bought it, although it’s much more commercially orientated than it was.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Fairyhouse 4.05 Golden Spear 22/1 - I won't go into the whys and wherefores for now but if this is 'off' it is a good thing. Not many bookies are offering odds right now but if it goes longer generally and extra places open up I'll be piling in again.
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I thought maybe I had to act fast with that one last night but in the cold light of day my enthusiasm is waning with the jockey a complete unknown and the stable very cold. However, he was rated 127 and ridden by an unknown (to me) 7lb-claimer when running away with a decent handicap hurdle in November 2018 for which he went up to 137 so his current 123 looks ‘workable’ if they can get him back to form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought maybe I had to act fast with that one last night but in the cold light of day my enthusiasm is waning with the jockey a complete unknown and the stable very cold. However, he was rated 127 and ridden by an unknown (to me) 7lb-claimer when running away with a decent handicap hurdle in November 2018 for which he went up to 137 so his current 123 looks ‘workable’ if they can get him back to form.
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Wouldn't be too eager to give up so soon DO. They still felt him competitive enough to run him in the Cesarewitch not too long ago. He's now dropped to a mark 4LB's lower than his last win, where he was ridden by a 7Lb claimer. A recent spin on the Flat over an inadequate trip is a tactic the trainer has used successfully many times in the past too. The ground has turned in his favour. There has been no move or indication from a betting perspective for obvious reasons.
 
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Another one for the Irish National - Roaring Bull 100/1 5pl - sits very high in my table of ratings and I was just waiting for confirmation that it would run as it was always going to make the cut.

Young Brouder has the ride and will take another 7lbs off. Plenty to like about it at what strikes me as a crazy price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought maybe I had to act fast with that one last night but in the cold light of day my enthusiasm is waning with the jockey a complete unknown and the stable very cold. However, he was rated 127 and ridden by an unknown (to me) 7lb-claimer when running away with a decent handicap hurdle in November 2018 for which he went up to 137 so his current 123 looks ‘workable’ if they can get him back to form.
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The money's coming now DO...still 28/1 6 places Skybet but not for long
 
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