The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Another one for the Irish National - Roaring Bull 100/1 5pl - sits very high in my table of ratings and I was just waiting for confirmation that it would run as it was always going to make the cut.

Young Brouder has the ride and will take another 7lbs off. Plenty to like about it at what strikes me as a crazy price.
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I totally agree with you about the price.i was looking at this last night and just knew you would put this up.he was 2nd to the jam man and would have been about 40lb better off with 7lb claim.
Yes,there are plenty of negatives but there always will be with 100/1 shots.
 
Musselburgh 4.11pm jim goldie has the fav under Hollie Doyle but I'm taking a chance on its stablemate SOUND OF IONA 25s boosted to 28/1 .quite capable on its day so at the price I will take my chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Fairyhouse 4.05 Golden Spear 22/1 - I won't go into the whys and wherefores for now but if this is 'off' it is a good thing. Not many bookies are offering odds right now but if it goes longer generally and extra places open up I'll be piling in again.
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Same race - Foveros 33/1 6pl - Conor McNamara (3) did us a huge turn aboard Maze Runner for Mullins at the DRF and Foveros has a similar-ish profile. It has an eight month absence to overcome so might be prepping for Punchestown but I'm happy to have a wee nibble here just in case.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Fairyhouse 4.05 Golden Spear 22/1 - I won't go into the whys and wherefores for now but if this is 'off' it is a good thing. Not many bookies are offering odds right now but if it goes longer generally and extra places open up I'll be piling in again.
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Worryingly very weak in the market. Out to 50s. My head says write it off.

(Didn't stop me going in again, though.)
 
Outsider said:
Musselburgh 4.11pm jim goldie has the fav under Hollie Doyle but I'm taking a chance on its stablemate SOUND OF IONA 25s boosted to 28/1 .quite capable on its day so at the price I will take my chance.
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Backed into 12s and ran like a 50/1.disastrous day.only had 1 in the first ten.and Roaring bull took out of the Irish national.
 
I didn't back it but share your pain, Outsider. I had concluded Mark Johnston would win the big race at Musselburgh but I ended up backing a total non-trier.

At Fairyhouse two of my longshots ran sicth and seventh in the big hcap hurdle but they only paid five places while the main bet lost it with a slow jump at the last.

I didn't know about Roaring Bull, though. Not a serious blow as it was a small bet on a rank outsider.
 
I put SERPOLETTE in my alerts when he finished fourth at sligo and put stayed on nicely over 2m 2f under D.Oregan.
Won next time out over 2m4f at 16/1.
Been disappointing since.its last two races he was pulled up,one on heavy and the other was a race it couldnt win (won by concertista)
10s 2lb and Lisa O'Neill rides in the 220 f so I have to have a dabble at 100/1
 
I’d like to think that one of us backed Josie’s Orders just now! Listening to it I just assumed it was across country race.
 
Irish National - Discordantly 33/1 7pl (40s to fewer places) - one of three joint top in my ratings table (the others are already mentioned - Robin De Carlow and Top Moon) so has to be a bet at the price especially with the yard seemingly back in form. I've also done a double with Sizing Pottsie which I see is blue across the board. That amounts to 645/1.

And a real wild one - Mortal 250/1 6pl - not far off top on its best form and ran well for a long way at monster odds the last time.

And I would support Outsider's Snugsborough Benny who is also right up there and on offer at 125/1.
 
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And I would support Outsider's Snugsborough Benny who is also right up there and on offer at 125/1.[/QUOTE]

Wrong SNUGSBOROUGH D.O. (snugsborough hall topham)
 
I was looking at my ante post bets and wondering why I’d backed Snugsborough Hall in the Topham!
 
Disappointing that the jam man has been taken out of the national so I'm adding TALKISCHEAP 66/1
Won the bet365 in 2019 and is 10lb higher but gets in with 10.12 if the weights dont go up.
 
Topham - Kauto Riko 33/1 5pl - I haven't finished doing this race yet but wanted this one onside early. Brian Hughes has already been booked to ride. I put it up on its only previous race this season when it ran on from out the back for fourth at the November Cheltenham meeting and that form is good. He might even have won if he'd got a normal ride. I think that once the major media pundits do the race for themselves at least one of influence will put it up and the price will contract. He should probably be no more than 10/1 on form.
 
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Farclas - 33/1 - Kennedy jocked up - O'Leary wanting to be pantomime villian, Ran into one at Cheltenham, - price will contract I think.
 
HawkWing said:
Farclas - 33/1 - Kennedy jocked up - O'Leary wanting to be pantomime villian, Ran into one at Cheltenham, - price will contract I think.
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Is that for the Topham or the National?

I definitely have it as a potential National horse but was really expecting them to wait until next year as it's still only a 7yo. I took 33/1 a couple of weeks ago NRNB for the National. I might even have put it on this thread.

Edit - not this thread, the GN one.
 
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FEDERICI foxhunter 33/1 shouldnt be able to win at the weights off its rating but if in the mood could lead them for a long way.maybe all the way.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is that for the Topham or the National?

I definitely have it as a potential National horse but was really expecting them to wait until next year as it's still only a 7yo. I took 33/1 a couple of weeks ago NRNB for the National. I might even have put it on this thread.

Edit - not this thread, the GN one.
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National - should have specified
 
Thurs, Juv Hurdle - Carlos Felix 66/1 - This price looks wrong (30-something win only on the exchange) but it's an iffy race for value. Stablemate John Locke, with a very similar profile, is 14/1 (Skelton up) but, on my figures, Carlos Felix (Andrews) was marginally the better Flat horse so should be round about the same price. There are two shorties in the race and only six runners so it's not as if I'm aiming for an honourable third. The race is probably best left alone but sometimes strange things happen, like 150/1 shots winning Irish Grand Nationals, so I've been unable to resist a very small interest.
 
HawkWing said:
National - should have specified
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I'm going to go back in on Farclas. One thing that I had overlooked until I did the Topham was that he will be 6lbs well in, having gone up that much for his good run last time. I'm still anti-7yos but one of these days a horse of that age will win.
 
Blakeney point 515 aintree fri 40/1 jordon ganiford well out of its depth last time in the morebattle.
 
Friday 5.15 - Dear Sire 33/1 5pl - I half-expected this one to be at best disputing favouritism so I was a wee bit gobsmacked to see this price on offer. Derek O'Connor's booking suggests McCain is serious about this one. I have it top rated and so do RPRs hence my surprise. Let's hope the bet hasn't had its chips...
 
I was looking at the this one .... Ran in the same race 2018 finishing second off 2lb higher....I agree the jockey booking suggests it must be showing the right signs at home. Along a similar theme Thistimenextyear also a former runner up off just 1lb higher this time Simon torrens taking off 3lb . He's been off since June 2019 but could be worth chancing he's got enough around 14s at the moment
 
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