The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Friday 5.15 - Dear Sire 33/1 5pl - I half-expected this one to be at best disputing favouritism so I was a wee bit gobsmacked to see this price on offer. Derek O'Connor's booking suggests McCain is serious about this one. I have it top rated and so do RPRs hence my surprise. Let's hope the bet hasn't had its chips...
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Hes also booked him for Federici in the foxhunter and he also rides Snugsborough hall in the topham.
Will have to back him for top jockey.ha ha.

And I've put up dear sites stablemate with jordon rainsford claiming 7lb.
 
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I like the topham for an upset . I think it could suit storm control to a tee, and I think he's still feasibly treated. Realm keeper has more to offer and jumps well.... Also I maybe crazy but outlander could easily run in to a place at 100/1 I'm not particularly keen on any of the shorter ones ... Probably senior citizen is the most solid at 12s
 
Outsider said:
Hes also booked him for Federici in the foxhunter and he also rides Snugsborough hall in the topham.
Will have to back him for top jockey.ha ha.

And I've put up dear sites stablemate with jordon rainsford claiming 7lb.
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Donald and Derek are friends and often collaborate at the sales. Theo Gillard is the stable conditional and rides Goobinator for the stable's biggest owner.
 
Alpha Des Obeaux in the National. CBA with a write up, bleeding would be a concern, but hoping for a big race at a big price
 
Also Kateson in 1.45 tomorrow seems overpriced to me. Seen 25s at first glance, could be bigger out there.

Tommy Scus only other ride at Aintree. Is that by design or choice?

Ran well and won here beating On The Blind Side. 2 poor runs since. Only 4 pound higher than his last win at Aintree. Not a 25/1 shot for me.
 
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Topham - Robin Des Foret 28/1 6pl - This one is joint-top on my bare figures (I'll post the other one in due course, I'm just waiting for the price to lengthen a bit) so was always going to be a bet anyway but I didn't really expect it to be such a big price.

Last season he was a close third off this mark in the Caspian Caviar, looking set to win until badly hampered. He then was a very creditable fifth off a pound higher in a 150k handicap at the DRF, looking like winning turning for home. At Cheltenham in the Plate he was badly hampered twice, notably so the second time when just getting back into the race. He was 16/1, 10/1 and 12/1 respectively for those races and should probably be shorter in what is probably a lesser race.

I half-expect one or two of the younger improvers to progress past him but he sets a high enough standard as it is.
 
Aintree 1.45 - Thistle Do Nicely 66/1 5pl - nicely rated on my figures and possibly just a very dark horse. Price is maybe also longer partly due to lesser-known trainer and jockey but the trainer is no mug and trusts the jockey.

I'll also be backing a couple more longshots in the same race to smaller stakes: Amour De Nuit 33/1 and West To The Bridge 50/1.
 
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Topham - Glen Forsa 50/1 - is the other joint-top on my figures so has to carry some sickness insurance. Hasn't really fulfilled the potential he was showing in his novice days but is back on a generous mark.
 
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5.15 - Turning Gold 100/1 5pl - looked to be going places when a wide-margin winner (gd) two seasons ago and hinted at the same ability first time up last season. Plenty to prove now but has come a fair way back down the ratings. Joint top on my figures on those two pieces of form and would be top on RPRs if they relied on them.
 
Double J said:
Also Kateson in 1.45 tomorrow seems overpriced to me. Seen 25s at first glance, could be bigger out there.

Tommy Scus only other ride at Aintree. Is that by design or choice?
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Desert Orchid said:
I can't see him wanting to take any unnecessary risks with possible/probable National glory just round the corner.
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He's riding for Mick Channon over the Mildmay fences in the race before the national...that lad holds no fears...
 
Outsider said:
Disappointing that the jam man has been taken out of the national so I'm adding TALKISCHEAP 66/1
Won the bet365 in 2019 and is 10lb higher but gets in with 10.12 if the weights dont go up.
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I'm getting myself over excited about this one.ive gone in again at 66s.it says he is 5lb lower in future races as it ran poor after the weights were announced but they must have been happy with its mark.won the bet365 by 10L off 145 on it's only go over a distance.could have saved him for another crack at that off only 5lb higher.if it runs well in the national I cant see them going for both.
Ran on the flat at southwell and a NH flat race before tinkering around at the back in its last race.
 
Diol Ker is overpriced for the Liverpool tomorrow at 20s. He ran really well last time out, gutting it out against Sam's Profile and although mostly all his form is on really soft ground his sire's best horse, Dynaste, was bred on similar lines and went well on good ground. Thyme Hill and Roksana are both solid towards the head of the market but the rest look very iffy to me and 4 places are being played.
 
I’ve had to back Master Debonair 1.45 after backing him ante post for the Ch H. I know the Tizzards thought highly of him and he has ran well before after a wind op. Not sure what the form of the Fry stable is but I’d kick myself if he won today!
 
National - Give Me A Copper 80/1 - has ended up in my top three ratings on older form. Hard to see a Nicholls-Cobden horse going off at that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Topham - Kauto Riko 33/1 5pl - I haven't finished doing this race yet but wanted this one onside early. Brian Hughes has already been booked to ride. I put it up on its only previous race this season when it ran on from out the back for fourth at the November Cheltenham meeting and that form is good. He might even have won if he'd got a normal ride. I think that once the major media pundits do the race for themselves at least one of influence will put it up and the price will contract. He should probably be no more than 10/1 on form.
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I’d really love this horse to win a big race. Not actually a cliff horse of mine but I’ve always liked him.
 
Consider this. The Irish have now won all six handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. They have one runner in the last race at Aintree today, a handicap hurdle, which finished well ahead of Tronador last time out. 10/1 I think.
 
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