The 2021 Longshot Thread

Only one bet today - Old Newton Cup - Pablo Escobarr 25/1, 4 places - I didn't study any racing today. I just ordered my cards by RPR and check them against the betting. Pablo Escobarr is top rated bu available at 25/1 so a small ew interest will do me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Chookie Embra - Alounak 40/1, 5 places - went up to 114 (from 110) for finishing second in last year's Hardwicke (G2) in soft ground but has been inconsistent since. Gets to run off 104 here so every chance if he consents to try.
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Hope you stayed loyal:thumbsup:
 
Couldn't have told you it was even in the race, Maxbet.

I tried taking 22/1 Pablo Escobarr to 6 places but when I clicked through it was in to 20s and I just thought 'fvck it'. Backed into 15/2 an'a'.

Probably if I'd been in a position to study I would have landed on Alounak for the reason above but the stakes were only small so I'm not going to dwell on what might have been. For once :lol:
 
Well, I looked at the race to back Pablo Escobar after it was mentioned on here and backed Alounak at the same time, possibly because he was being backed a bit on oddschecker but also there was something familiar about his name. Must have seen him mentioned on here.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hunt Cup - Lucander 40/1, 6 places - not allowing a Reshoun... This one is top rated with me. That said, I anticipate one or two might improve past it but he also has some scope to improve with only one run this season. The trainer has a very good record in other handicaps at the meeting but has been very quiet in this one so maybe he quite likes its chances. Worth a pop at the price.
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Lucander 20/1 John Smith's Cup - Never really got going at Ascot but if I had him top-rated there he won't be far off it here although the price is a lot shorter. Enough to want to get on at this stage in the absence of study time. He's a CD winner too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwm 3.00 - Cairn Gorm 25/1 6pl - just my gut playing up.
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Fifth at 50/1 but I don't think I get the BOG with the extra places.

Edit - I wasn't following the pre-race betting but I did hear it ran without a front shoe so maybe that caused a late drift. Ran pretty well in the circumcisions.
 
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I missed that ( not sure how). Well done. Started at 40’s. Saffie was on my main pick: just glad she’s ok. It looked horrible.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lucander 20/1 John Smith's Cup - Never really got going at Ascot but if I had him top-rated there he won't be far off it here although the price is a lot shorter. Enough to want to get on at this stage in the absence of study time. He's a CD winner too.
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Laura Pearson booked and now generally 14s with 16s still there in a place or two. Decent possie to have.

I've now also taken Strait Of Hormuz 33/1, 5 places - nearly top on my figures and possibly plotted for this (along with many others, admittedly, but they're not all this kind of price) with another fair claimer booked.
 
Count d'orsay 335a 20/1
Good birthday 405y 25/1
Ropey guest 350nm 25/1
Summerghand 425nm 28/1 8 places bet 365 extra places.
Bushtrucker trial 245 nav 25/1
 
Outsider said:
Count d'orsay 335a 20/1
Good birthday 405y 25/1
Ropey guest 350nm 25/1
Summerghand 425nm 28/1 8 places bet 365 extra places.
Bushtrucker trial 245 nav 25/1
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I didn't look at Navan but I 'get' the others. Hope at least one of them gets a nice return, outsider.
 
July Cup - Brando 125/1 - for the same reasons as last year when he was so unlucky at the start and was beaten less than the amount of ground he lost. This is admittedly a stronger renewal but there's compensation in the price (only 80s last year).
 
Bunbury Cup - Revich 66/1 - For the same reasons as when I put it up for the Hunt Cup. This sharper track and likely faster pace might suit him better. I'm still not convinced he needs Chester. More places are available elsewhere but the price is savaged with them. He'll either go very close or bomb.
 
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Last up for today:

Ascot 4.45 Recovery Run 20/1 - Betfred is the only firm going the price so this is sailing close to the wind as far as qualification is concerned. However, I have it top-rated on a kind reading of its best form and was happy to take 16/1 yesterday. Dangers abound, admittedly, and it's highly likely that at least one will improve past it but I couldn't let it go at the price.
 
Just reading through my notes for today, I realised there's one I'd overlooked:

John Smiths Cup - Winter Reprise 28/1 7 pl - you can get 33s to fewer places but I lost out with one last week by being greedy. Lucander and Strait Of Hormuz have both shortened up quite a bit so I reckon I can have another go. I rate Menuisier as a trainer and think he's managed to keep this one well under the radar by campaigning him in good races in France in which he has been able to run round just off the leaders in order to preserve his mark.

I might lay off the win portion of the other two.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Laura Pearson booked and now generally 14s with 16s still there in a place or two. Decent possie to have.

I've now also taken Strait Of Hormuz 33/1, 5 places - nearly top on my figures and possibly plotted for this (along with many others, admittedly, but they're not all this kind of price) with another fair claimer booked.
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Nearly….
 
Yes, thought I had it for a brief moment. I actually meant to back the winner as well as it was top-rated on its AW form but a tradesman came and by the time he was gone I'd forgotten all about it. Slightly irritating but I've had a great day elsewhere so am in upbeat mood.
 
Desert Orchid said:
July Cup - Brando 125/1 - for the same reasons as last year when he was so unlucky at the start and was beaten less than the amount of ground he lost. This is admittedly a stronger renewal but there's compensation in the price (only 80s last year).
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No money back but another great run for 7th place at huge odds.
 
Two ante-post longshots for one of my favourite races - the Golden Mile at Goodwood:

First up, Path Of Thunder 25/1 - will carry a 3lb penalty and we'll find out in the morning just how well in he might be but he was a smart-looking winner the other day and is already 14s in quite a few places. I reckon it will be at least a 7lb hike (ergo 4lbs well in) but it could be as much as 10lbs.

Next up, Beat Le Bon 25/1 - can run off the same mark as when winning the race two years ago and caught my eye in the Hunt Cup. He was well beaten in absolute terms but was second to the runaway winner on the far side and about six lengths clear of the third. If he's back to his very best he's on a winning mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two ante-post longshots for one of my favourite races - the Golden Mile at Goodwood:

First up, Path Of Thunder 25/1 - will carry a 3lb penalty and we'll find out in the morning just how well in he might be but he was a smart-looking winner the other day and is already 14s in quite a few places. I reckon it will be at least a 7lb hike (ergo 4lbs well in) but it could be as much as 10lbs.
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Up 8lbs so will be officially 5lbs well in and possibly now hitting an improvement curve. Should be less than 10/1.
 
In the big 2yo race at Newbury today - Russellinthebushes 66/1, 5 pl - only playing this one because of the extra places. One of the 'big two' really should win and I can see professionals being interested in a 58% dutching approach. However, take them out and this one isn't too far off the best of the rest on the figures, wears a visor for the first time on her first run for her new trainer and is drawn not too far from the big two so might be dragged to a good run. It's a big enough price to afford a little interest.
 
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