The 2021 Longshot Thread

One at Market Rasen - Talkischeap 33/1, 6pl (40s to fewer places on offer) - might be a tad short for it but has a touch of class and really shouldn't be anywhere near that price if it's trying.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One at Market Rasen - Talkischeap 33/1, 6pl (40s to fewer places on offer) - might be a tad short for it but has a touch of class and really shouldn't be anywhere near that price if it's trying.
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My finger hovered over that one last night so I’ll have to put some pennies on now. New headgear I think? I had to back Royal Village as well because I was following Emma’s rides last year….
 
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Ascot

1.50 Crazyland 20/1 each way.

I'm giving this horse another chance here. This could be more open than the betting market suggests.
 
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When I've tried betting based on the analytical methods used by the experts on here for any length of time I invariably lose money. Too often backing horses that are too short in the betting because their merits are clear to all. In addition whilst I love seeing top horses perform I don't get the additional satisfaction that comes finding something myself unless I have followed the horse as it progresses.
Thus today I am heavily invested in Starshiba in the 3.00 Ascot. At Goodwood over 7f he was beaten by the shortest of short heads by Perrotto who went on to be the horse that turned round what had been an awful Ascot meeting for me. Starshiba has since raced over a mile and demonstrated that that was too far for his racing style. Back at 7f he has a pretty decent chance off a very low weight. I'm on at 33/1 and 20/1(for 7 places) and several prices in between and have him as the anchor for several multiples.
Added.2.00pm
Unfortunately have Wonderful Tonight in several of the multiples, who probably won't run. Encouraged by support for Blind Beggar 2.40Y (12's) and Fantastic Fox 2.45Y (11/4).
 
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Starshiba is top rated in my little system too I’m afraid. Then Kimifive, Marshall Dan and Star of Orion.
 
It's a bit of a risk backing at goodwood w/o knowing the draw but I've took the chance on
BEDOUINS STORY 25/1 Golden Mile
And
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD 33/1 Stewards cup.
 
Goodwood Tuesday 1.50 - Sky Defender 20/1, 7 pl - top-rated on my figures, has a single-figure draw, won't mind the softer ground and the trainer targets the race. Loads to like about the price with the extra places on offer.
 
Goodwood 3.35 Tuesday - Serpentine 20/1 - I still think he is a good Derby winner and am heading for the cliff edge with him.
 
With form figures of
4/6
9/11
27/30 royal hunt cup
9/9
6/8
9/9 means this is definitely a cliff horse for me but I cant get out of my head how easily it won the irish Lincoln last year.
That was off 97 and got put up 9lb.now back down to 100.
BOWERMAN 615G 40/1 boosted to 45/1
 
Sussex Stakes - Century Dream 25/1 - a CD winner in soft (G2 Celebration Mile last season) and was rated 117 at his peak. That would put him in the mix for the places and if the ground doesn’t suit the others, who knows.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Goodwood Tuesday 1.50 - Sky Defender 20/1, 7 pl - top-rated on my figures, has a single-figure draw, won't mind the softer ground and the trainer targets the race. Loads to like about the price with the extra places on offer.
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First home of the pair to race nearside but only 6th overall. Can't see Skybet paying the extra places given the non-runners.
 
Stewards cup TINTO 33/1 carries 12lb less than last year and 15 if Ghiani still claims 3.

Another I will probably do is HELLO JONESY 6lb less.did me a big turn last year.
 
Oh the Joy's of ante post betting.chairmanoftheboard isnt running and bedouins story has a high draw and GULLIVER is drawn in the car park.
At least SHELIR is well drawn in 1 and is now 16s.

ABDUCTION Stewards cup consolation race 28/1 w.hill but drawn high.
 
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