The 2021 Longshot Thread

Takingrisks 5 places 40/1 strikes me as a decent bet in this Skybet Chase in horrible ground.

Great shout Paul. I backed Aye Right, was out for the afternoon to clear the head and watched on replay later -with more beers - and then text member Flaggers when I realised I had a fair bet on him last time (2nd Jan) but the meeting was called off and the lazy/hungover tw@t I am, I hadn’t really studied today’s race properly.

Hope you pocketed a few mate.
 
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Cheers Lee. I backed both him and Aye Right each way, and stupidly didn’t do the forecast.

No complaints though, it was a decent pull nevertheless.
 
The betting for this weekend's and midweek Scottish premiership illustrate how wrong that price was even if Celtic did eventually win.

We host St Mirren today. The visitors are 14/1. On Wednesday Stevie G's Govan Galacticos host St Johnstone who are 14/1.

If St Mirren had been 20/1+ yesterday I'd have put them on the thread.

Going off slightly at a tangent (so you can stop reading now if you're not interested in my thoughts on Celtic - I just need to get this off my chest!), we are in freefall and I will be looking to oppose us in the betting so long as Lennon stays in the job.

There is one word screaming through these days: unprofessional.

I'm glad the CEO is gone and the new guy coming in from Scottish Rugby sounds very promising but we should still be winning the league with the players we have at our disposal. Apart from the goalkeeping position, we are genuinely better man for man than any other team in Scotland (which isn't and shouldn't be difficult to be honest).

I've been trying to catch up on a lot of background stuff and I'm not enjoying what I'm finding out.

The outgoing CEO's business plan on the football side of things was to buy projects, get the coaches to develop them and sell them for a nice profit. It worked with Moussa Dembele (£500k! from Fulham), Virgil Van Dijk, Victor Wanyama, etc etc, and it might work with Odsonne Edouard (talk of £30m coming in for him) but they're becoming less frequent.

We have some brilliant youngsters on the books. But what does it say when they are leaving us to join Bayern Munich etc who, according to one recently-departed kid, impressed him so much with their 'pathway' of development for him already mapped out in order to maximise his chances of making the first team squad. Apparently nothing like that exists at Celtic.

I read a lengthy item recently on John Collins who played for us back in the day. Everybody knew he was OCD about his fitness and he said himself he thought he was a real professional with a serious professional attitude until he signed for Monaco. He was no longer doing 'extra' sessions in the gym. The whole squad was doing three sessions one day, two the next, then three, then two etc etc. Diet was a big deal. Bloods were checked regularly and they were told if they were short on anything, eg zinc. He said it took him to a whole new level.

He brought that attitude to Celtic when he came as assistant to Ronnie Deila but it met with resentment. Already some years retired, his fitness levels were still far higher than the players. He was still doing extra shifts in the gym after training!

Brendan Rodgers brought similar ideas and this time the players bought in, coinciding with the 'invincible' season.

Rodgers left when the CEO refused to bring in the players he felt he needed to keep the club going forward, instead foisting little-known project players from minor European leagues on him. When he left for Leicester mid-season he brought a lot of ill will upon himself from the support but they now understand why. Rodgers probably saw this coming and jumped ship rather than steer it into rocks. Much as I dislike him as a human being away from football, he is clearly a good manager.

Lennon was a cheap and easy replacement the CEO knew would be willing to do as he was told. We had enough momentum about us to go on to win the treble treble and even the quadruple treble but the signs have been ominous for long enough, especially where European football is concerned.

It saddens me to think that not too long ago we had a team that included Henrik Larsson, Chris Sutton, Lubo Moravcik and Shunsuke Nakamura and now we're chock a block with young duds who aren't good enough to threaten an underperforming first squad.

I'm told we're back to one session a day training. Fitness levels have plummeted. I keep looking to see if the players are wearing monitors this season and I'm not seeing it but most of the time I'm watching iffy streams or just highlights on TV.

I read today that players are saying among themselves that when they cross the white line they're ignoring the manager's game plan and doing it their own way. Maybe it's because they don't understand the game plan. Either way it's clearly a very serious problem.

Gordon Strachan was a great one for quoting Cesare Maldini: If you have to tell someone the same thing three times and they still don't understand, get rid of them no matter how good they are.

It sounds like we have players who lack the intelligence to understand the manager's plans, let alone put them into action. And Lennon is no intellectual himself.

If Lennon stays, I reckon we will win no more than 50% of our remaining matches, we will probably go out of the cup at the next round and we probably won't secure second place in a poor league.

Other teams up here are punching well above their weight in terms of budgets etc. At the start of the season there was a player came up from a team either in the lower Premier League or upper part of the Championship but not getting a game. He came up to Ross County (might have been Inverness CT) on loan and in his first interview said he thought he had got on the wrong plane and landed in Barcelona. He couldn't believe the levels of skill and training he was experiencing.

These are teams knocking their pans in just to survive financially up here yet it seems our squad is full of pampered fannies.

I've been complaining, going back to the Strachan era, that we tend do drop points as much through complacency as anything else. Since those days I've been using the phrase 'superiority complex'. Our guys seemed to believe they only had to be on the pitch to be successful. It worked domestically but it found them out in Europe.

It was the same right through until last season, Lennon's first full one in charge since his return. Now there is no belief in their ability - other than Ryan Christie who seems to think he is God - and we are all too easily panicked. We can't handle close marking at all. Other teams now know how to beat us and are doing so with distressing frequency. We shouldn't be losing any more than two games a season never mind two or three a month.

I will lose a fortune when we lose the league. I'll still be in front over a three-season period as I've been buying money the last twice and re-investing the net gains but this will hurt. I've been working at clawing some of the money back by opposing us recently and will continue to do so.

If you're still with me this far, thanks for lending your ears/eyes.

Rant over.

Sorry.
 
Chepstow 3.50

Eamon An Cnoic had some good form over both hurdles and fences, on heavy ground and soft ground, including at this course Chepstow. If you look right back through his form, as a youngster, just when he was winning handicap hurdles at a fair level, they sent him chasing. He did justify that by winning a few chases, but he's now come back full circle, as after dissapointing over fences he reverts to hurdles, where because he's still relatively lightly raced, he'll race off a 10lb lower hurdle mark compared to his chase mark. I fancy he'll out run the odds here.

20/1 as per the terms and conditions of this thread.
 
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Chepstow 3.50

Eamon An Cnoic had some good form over both hurdles and fences, on heavy ground and soft ground, including at this course Chepstow. If you look right back through his form, as a youngster, just when he was winning handicap hurdles at a fair level, they sent him chasing. He did justify that by winning a few chases, but he's now come back full circle, as after dissapointing over fences he reverts to hurdles, where because he's still relatively lightly raced, he'll race off a 10lb lower hurdle mark compared to his chase mark. I fancy he'll out run the odds here.

20/1 as per the terms and conditions of this thread.

Great run for the money


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Yes thanks Matt. Beaten by a unexposed improving handicapper who is entered on Tuesday in another handicap hurdle. I wonder if it'll try to defy a penalty. If so, keep an eye on whether today's winner gets a Martin Pipe handicap hurdle entry at Cheltenham next month.
 
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Cleeve Hurdle at Wetherby tomorrow.

West Approach is a very good dual purpose performer on his day. He's popped up now and then over fences, but also did finish second in this race two years ago, when second behind the admirable Paisely Park. He actually finished second the Paisely Park in the Long Walk hurdle that season too, plus as his best chase form was on soft ground, West Approach might be a horse to revel in the heavy going here tomorrow. A speculative one in this no doubt, but 25/1 + is a fair each way price.
 
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Yes thanks Matt. Beaten by a unexposed improving handicapper who is entered on Tuesday in another handicap hurdle. I wonder if it'll try to defy a penalty. If so, keep an eye on whether today's winner gets a Martin Pipe handicap hurdle entry at Cheltenham next month.

I’ll keep an eye out. Jumping needs to improve a bit???


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Arvico Bleu 2.45 Leopardstown tomorrow.

I have been following this horse for some time, and have been given the distinct impression that it has been schooling in public. Jumps fast accurately and effortlessly, looks a real natural. In most of his races, he has led the field, only weakening very late on. They tried holding him up last time, ridden by Rachael Blackmore, he settled beautifully without pulling, but his accurate jumping kept taking him forward. He moved up still travelling comfortably with 3 fences to go, only to get sandwiched and badly impeded, losing valuable position and momentum. This brought him under pressure but his jumping was still accurate, gradually weakened and was eased off. All his best runs (off higher marks) have been on better ground, which he gets tomorrow. The 7Lb claimer on board tomorrow sees him 10Lb better off with several of the horses that finished in front last time and De Bromhead bosses the handicap. I really think he is capable of running up to 140ish off that weight (9-13) and could easily scrape a place. 40/1 ...5 places generally, 6 with PP, 33/1... 6 Skybet.

Never heard of the jockey before, could only find one run on Racing post form, watched it...She's cool.

Searched and found this...

Emma Twomey is looking to the future and targeting a professional racing career after her recent win in the Rybo Ladies National Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse.
The amateur jockey took first place while riding Kavanagh's Corner and having clinched her maiden victory, Twomey told Ger Gilroy and Johnny Ward on Friday Night Racing that she is now looking forward to similar success as a professional.
"I have the conditional license so I am serious about giving it a go, definitely," Twomey confessed, when asked had she intentions to turn professional.
"You would not be in the game otherwise. It is very competitive but, like I said, I am very lucky to be at Henry [de Bromhead] and given the opportunity to give it a go."
For his part, de Bromhead was ecstatic for the young jockey.
“I’m delighted for her as she plays a big part in our operation. She’s had point-to-point rides and over hurdles and on the flat for us. She’s been with us on and off for years and wanted to come back and give the race-riding a go," he said, in conversation with Irishracing.com
How recent racing success has fuelled Twomey's ambition
Rachael Blackmore has proven to be a guiding light for Twomey. The young amateur credited Blackmore with assisting her in the lead up to the National Handicap Chase.
"Rachael Blackmore has been very good to me. She has helped me so much," Twomey said.
"I am definitely thinking of the season ahead. I know everyone says when they get a winner that they want another one but it really is true."
For the immediate future, Twomey is seeking further experience to build both her profile and her skills in the saddle.
"I just would love to get as much experience as I can now and really work on my seat and racing position."
With most of her experience in the area of jump racing, Twomey still manages to get out and ride on the flat which is something that she enjoys immensely.
"I do manage to pick up a few spins on the flat. I enjoy riding on the flat but my heart has always been with the jumpers."
Although Twomey admits there has never been any negativity cast her way as a female jockey, she is proud of the ladies who have come before her.
The aforementioned Blackmore, Katie Davis and Nina Carberry have blazed a trail for women in the sport and Twomey looks towards these for inspiration.
"She has definitely done amazing things in racing," Twomey said commenting on Blackmore's brilliance.
"The likes of herself, Katie and Nina really removed any stigma around ladies getting their licenses and pursuing a career as a jockey.

"They have definitely helped in that sense but I have never really felt that I have been discriminated [against] for being a lady rider, so to speak."
With Twomey's recent win helping to build her profile as a jockey, she has now signed with agent Gary Cribben and hopes to continue the good run of form that has led her to this point.
"I've recently gotten an agent. I've gone with Gary Cribben so I am hoping that will give me more options as well.
"It always helps to have somebody on your side to help get your name out there but really it is people seeing you riding and seeing your name down on the paper. Hopefully, that encourages others to want to put you on board."
It is clear that there is a bright future ahead for Twomey and in 2021 she will be hoping to drive forward and rack up more wins in the saddle.
 
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Leopardstown 3.50 - Eclair Du Beaufeu 28/1, 7 places - you can get longer odds (up to 40/1) for fewer places but I'm really just taking out sickness insurance on this one as I have it shortlisted purely on my ratings. The jockey booking is screaming "not today" but I've been wrong about that kind of thing before (believe it or not :cool:). The bottom line is that this is a good horse on his day and his 'day' tends to come when there's big money on offer. He jumped like a snooker table at Fairyhouse in November yet still got into a challenging position two out where he fell, ridden by a "not today" jockey. He might end up going out to 50s so the BOG will kick in nicely if the switch is flicked today.
 
Leopardstown 3.50 - Eclair Du Beaufeu 28/1, 7 places - you can get longer odds (up to 40/1) for fewer places but I'm really just taking out sickness insurance on this one as I have it shortlisted purely on my ratings. The jockey booking is screaming "not today" but I've been wrong about that kind of thing before (believe it or not :cool:). The bottom line is that this is a good horse on his day and his 'day' tends to come when there's big money on offer. He jumped like a snooker table at Fairyhouse in November yet still got into a challenging position two out where he fell, ridden by a "not today" jockey. He might end up going out to 50s so the BOG will kick in nicely if the switch is flicked today.

Didn't need the seventh place and the 33/1 sp helped. :)
 
Musselburgh (if its on).

3.25 Fair Star. On pure logic or rationale it's hard to justify backing a horse first time out over hurdles. However, there's the dead 8 runners in the field, and perhaps Fair Star, (having never really run a bad race in limited career on the flat thus far), can improve on his promise over hurdles here. 25/1 or thereabouts.
 
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Going to put up Fils D'oudaries in the Flogas at 25s ew.

I like him as an outside each way chance in the RSA Hawk Wing. I think he’ll be better over further. He probably needs to run a decent race tomorrow to line up though.
 
Leopardstown 2.40 - Heroes Of Renown 40/1, 6 places - Just organised my long/short lists for the race and this one was on it. Upon checking the price I saw it was blue across the board but 40s still available in a couple of places. It just strikes me as having been 'looked after' for a wee while and is dangerously handicapped on the pick of its novice form.

I have another longshot in the same race but the money isn't on yet as the price looks safe for now. I'll put it up presently.
 
I have another longshot in the same race but the money isn't on yet as the price looks safe for now. I'll put it up presently.

The second one is Maze Runner 40/1, 7pl. Missed last season and is entitled to be much better than in his novice season. Had a comeback run a couple of months ago and will almost certainly have done plenty at home since then.

In the 4.10, I've spread some money thinly across a few. The longshots are:

Blazer 28/1, 6pl
Fitzhenry 28/1, 5pl
Mortal 80/1, 5pl
 
The second one is Maze Runner 40/1, 7pl. Missed last season and is entitled to be much better than in his novice season. Had a comeback run a couple of months ago and will almost certainly have done plenty at home since then.

In the 4.10, I've spread some money thinly across a few. The longshots are:

Blazer 28/1, 6pl
Fitzhenry 28/1, 5pl
Mortal 80/1, 5pl

Unbelievable. Congratulations


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The second one is Maze Runner 40/1, 7pl. Missed last season and is entitled to be much better than in his novice season. Had a comeback run a couple of months ago and will almost certainly have done plenty at home since then.

Chuffed as fvck :)

I've also got in doubles in the chase hcap later.

Fingers crossed.

How do I get rid of the photo??
 

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Did not have a clue so had £10 ew for interest. Get's some back from yesterday which was X- rated. Well done DO.
 
The second one is Maze Runner 40/1, 7pl. Missed last season and is entitled to be much better than in his novice season. Had a comeback run a couple of months ago and will almost certainly have done plenty at home since then.

In the 4.10, I've spread some money thinly across a few. The longshots are:

Blazer 28/1, 6pl
Fitzhenry 28/1, 5pl
Mortal 80/1, 5pl

:adore::adore:
 
So pleased for you DO but gutted in that I missed a lot of today’s racing as I’ve been up all night with a poorly dog and slept in and I still can’t use my coral account anyway. I always back horses that have had long lay offs as well. It’s been one of those weeks!
 
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