The 2021 Longshot Thread

CESAREWITCH

With maze runner not running I'm struggling to come up with anything but on a line through summer moon I think RAJINSKY 50/1 looks over priced. Also if the step up in trip brings more improvement then on the same form lines MIKAWEE 66/1 is interesting.

I've took 33/1 MAZE RUNNER for sundays irish cesarewitch. Hopefully he will get in.

When you look at the hcap Mark's of Mullins' runners flat and jumps you have to think this horse has about 2 st in hand.
 
My mind works in mysterious ways..
I've backed ORBAAN tomorrow at york but I dont want it to win.ive backed it for the Balmoral at 40/1.
The way my mind works is that Spencer rode it when it was an eyecatcher and he told Omeara not to bother with the Cambridgeshire as he was going to win it with Bedouins story.so a good run tomorrow would put him spot on for the Balmoral.
Of course,he might be running to win tomorrow because he cant beat the gosden horse at ascot.
Either way 40s is a nice price.
Be interesting to see if Jamie rides him at ascot.
 
Cesarewitch - Scaramanga 22/1 - I've been keen on Great White Shark since last season but I see Scaramanga wears the owner's first colours. Scaramanga, rated 151 over hurdles, is still potentially thrown in despite going up for his win earlier in the season. His more recent run requires forgiving but at least it preserved his handicap mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Old Rowley Cup, Friday - Farhan 20/1 - He appears to be on a curve and might appreciate stepping back up in trip, having been a strong-staying winner over 10f in soft at Pontefract late last season. He disappointed at the trip earlier this season but the race may have come a tad too soon after his reappearance.
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Smashing run. I'm tempted to say it could have got a lot closer and made it an interesting finish had he not had to check slightly just as he was starting his move and then gave the winner first run but it might be construed as pocket talking. Probably wouldn't have beaten the winner anyway but I won't complain too much with a decent return.
 
Another for the Cesarewitch - Land Of Winter 100/1, 7 places - I was waiting until the morning for this one, hoping for 125/1 or even more but there's a wee bit of money for it if the blue hue is anything to go by. He's quite lightly raced in the last two seasons and is another who might improve for the step up in trip. He carries a penalty but wouldn't have got in without it. Any give will help. I don't really anticipate a win but the draw might scupper the chances of many at shorter odds and his true odds are probably closer to 25/1 (imho).
 
The Ces is turning into a great race for people who like longshots.

I'm a wee bit scunnered that I've already taken shorter prices on just about every one of my bets but some of the prices are (imo) just wrong.

Scaramanga can now be backed at 40/1, GWS 25/1 and the two rags at 150/1. I'm sorely tempted to go in again. I can see the odds contracting again through the morning and in the lead-up to the race itself.

Edited to add - just thinking about the above, this is arguably a better race than the Grand National for value outsiders.

Another - and hopefully the last - longshot for me today in the race is Nicholas T, 50/1, 7 pl. He's probably been trained for this since his storming finish to land the Northumberland Plate. He's 2lbs higher here but that is offset by the 5lb claim of Amie Waugh who has a nice strike rate for the trainer this season. He has pace for shorter races, not unlike a number of Goldie stayers, so if he's within 10 lengths of the lead at the 4f mark I'd be hopeful of at least a place.
 
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The Mullins favourite - MC Muldoon - went down by a short head to Reshoun in the Ascot Stakes who is only 1lb worse off today, but 50/1 compared to the favourite’s 9/2. Hmm.
 
Outsider said:
CESAREWITCH

With maze runner not running I'm struggling to come up with anything but on a line through summer moon I think RAJINSKY 50/1 looks over priced. Also if the step up in trip brings more improvement then on the same form lines MIKAWEE 66/1 is interesting.

I've took 33/1 MAZE RUNNER for sundays irish cesarewitch. Hopefully he will get in.

When you look at the hcap Mark's of Mullins' runners flat and jumps you have to think this horse has about 2 st in hand.
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Cashed out my 66s MMAKAWEE and gone back in at 210 on betfair and 110 ew.
 
barjon said:
The Mullins favourite - MC Muldoon - went down by a short head to Reshoun in the Ascot Stakes who is only 1lb worse off today, but 50/1 compared to the favourite’s 9/2. Hmm.
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Yes, the differential is all wrong. The general interpretation seems to be that MCM should have won by further but I'm not so sure. I have stablemate Mancini higher in my ratings today, which is one of the reasons I put it up earlier in the week.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, the differential is all wrong. The general interpretation seems to be that MCM should have won by further but I'm not so sure. I have stablemate Mancini higher in my ratings today, which is one of the reasons I put it up earlier in the week.
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Sounds good, but it was Reshoun that won - was 66/1 tho’ and MCM was closing fast.
 
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Yes, that's what I'm saying. Reshoun won that day but I have Mancini higher on my figures today. (A bit of cherrypicking, mind.) If Reshoun's price is wrong then so is Mancini's.
 
I think I’m the only person in the world to have backed Margaret Dumont at 66/1. I have to back the Williams horses as well. He’s so canny.
 
Hmmm. Buzz was the first one I looked at earlier in the week based on his hurdles mark but deep down I felt he wouldn't stay. I really should have had some sickness insurance on him.

Hope he had his supporters on the forum.
 
Good to hear that part of his prize money goes to the Royal Marsden Hospital though.
 
Well Bet365 kindly gave me £5 to put on the Ces so after much tooing and frooing I plumped for Elysian Flame ew at 33s. Only £2.50 ew but better than nothing.
 
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