The 2021 Longshot Thread

Aintree 3.15 - Highway One O Two 25/1, 4pl - I recall putting this one up in the Betfair Hurdle but he chased the over-fast pace and paid the price. I still have faith in his ability and like his price today but it's a field full of second-season novices entitled to improve a lot. I should probably leave the race alone but races like this bring out the mug punter in me.
 
Chepstow 1.22 - Supreme Escape 20/1 - this one was 33/1 in plenty of places yesterday evening so I held off but it's now 20s tops with no indication (blue) that there's been money for it. Hopefully the BOG will play out in my favour. Anyway, this one is plumb bottom of my ratings and I probably shouldn't be touching it with a barge pole but they thought enough of it to run it in the Whitbread, for which it went off at just 8/1. It isn't engaged in the Welsh National so might be here to weigh up the field for other stable entries (Secret Reprieve, Fado Des Brosses) and connections, I imagine, will be keen to win the race, being Welsh. In summary, I'm reading between loads of lines and probably making a stupid bet but the stakes are small.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yup. Stupid bet.
Click to expand...

Another stupid bet, probably: Elegant Escape 66/1, 4pl - it was showing at 125/1 a few minutes ago and I tried to back it but the price kept changing. Clearly somebody decided the 125s was too long. Sentiment as much as anything but 146 might be a lenient mark on his best form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another stupid bet, probably: Elegant Escape 66/1, 4pl - it was showing at 125/1 a few minutes ago and I tried to back it but the price kept changing. Clearly somebody decided the 125s was too long. Sentiment as much as anything but 146 might be a lenient mark on his best form.
Click to expand...

Dropped out in the country but caught my eye running on past beaten horses after the last.
 
MONOXIDE 1225p 66/1 skybet 5 places.

Really disappointed in myself today.as someone who follows my alerts over a cliff I let commander of fleet go unbacked.
 
Last edited:
Good luck. Looking forward to tomorrow. Come on Fakir Doudaries!

One horse I thought was decent at one point was Notice To Close. So a tracker longshot for me (3.05). He's had a decent 42 day break since his last pulled up effort. He might give longshot backers a decent run for their money from the front tomorrow I reckon.
 
Last edited:
1.45 Cork Razzle Dazzle Love 25/1. Trying to sneak a place really but is more of a 12/1 shot for me. Could be dangerous if left in the lead.
 
WELSH NATIONAL.

EUROBOT 50/1 pulled up last time which looked suspicious.like giving it a run but not the full distance.seemed to be travelling ok at the back.
Just my opinion.
 
RP GoldCup, Saturday - Joke Dancer 40/1 - with Dashel Drasher not declared I'm down on the race already. Joke Dancer has been on my radar since I 'did' the race earlier in the week but I shied away because he needed others to come out and the connections also have the admirable Midnight Shadow in the race. I wouldn't rule out a win for the latter but, on my figures, Joke Dancer best form gives him just as big a shout. Consistency wouldn't be his strongest asset, to put it gently, but on his day he can run and jump. He has pace for 2m and was sent over 3m last time, possibly to see if he had enough stamina for this kind of trip. Mania was probably always going to ride Midnight Shadow but he was never going to make 10-1 for this fellow. Quinlan has a winner and a second from three rides for the trainer this season, the loser being this horse over three miles. Sometimes these old rogues just put it all together and it's amazing how so many of them put it all together when the money's big. It's an amazing coincidence :cool:
 
Cheltenham 3.35 - Shannon Bridge 25/1, 4pl - this is a good price if he runs his race which he certainly hasn't done so far this season but he was improving nicely at the end of last season and might well have been brought along with a race of this nature in mind. I have him top-rated on his best form so can't not back him at such long odds.
 
Last edited:
I also think Shannon Bridge should be capable of better than he’s shown so far this season and is worth a small interest as I’d be gutted if today was his day with none of my money on him

Also Quarenta in the 2.25 at 25s. This horse won 1st time up last year and has slipped to a 1lb lower mark after some poor efforts later. I’m hoping he’s best fresh


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Also Quarenta in the 2.25 at 25s. This horse won 1st time up last year and has slipped to a 1lb lower mark after some poor efforts later. I’m hoping he’s best fresh


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk[/QUOTE]
I agree
 
RP Gold Cup - Deyrann De Carjac 33/1, 4 pl - King keeps running this one the top handicaps so he must like it and his best form puts him top on my ratings before the possibility of improvement with age. In his novice season he was beating Pym and taking on Champ and Midnight Shadow before going off at just 14/1, off 145, in the Plate won by Simply The Betts. He obviously had issues last season and has been brought along quietly so far. He was never put in the Mackeson but was noted keeping on nicely up the hill and I hope he can step up a fair bit here.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 3.35 - Shannon Bridge 25/1, 4pl - this is a good price if he runs his race which he certainly hasn't done so far this season but he was improving nicely at the end of last season and might well have been brought along with a race of this nature in mind. I have him top-rated on his best form so can't not back him at such long odds.
Click to expand...

Showed a bit more today but looked after from two out. They're clearly plotting this one up for something, maybe the Pertemps final.
 
Desert Orchid said:
RP Gold Cup - Deyrann De Carjac 33/1, 4 pl - King keeps running this one the top handicaps so he must like it and his best form puts him top on my ratings before the possibility of improvement with age. In his novice season he was beating Pym and taking on Champ and Midnight Shadow before going off at just 14/1, off 145, in the Plate won by Simply The Betts. He obviously had issues last season and has been brought along quietly so far. He was never put in the Mackeson but was noted keeping on nicely up the hill and I hope he can step up a fair bit here.
Click to expand...

Unlucky not to get a place D.
 
Outsider said:
Unlucky not to get a place D.
Click to expand...

Don't know about that, Outsider. I've only just watched the race, having got home from a day out. I'm always looking for my horses to be prominent at Cheltemham so I'd all but given up on him after the first couple of fences. He got into the race but had no more from two out. I suspect he was trying but has had his limitations exposed. One to write off, imo, at this level. The race was ultimately dominated by front-running Cheltenham horses, possibly a big lesson to be learned there.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top