The 2021 Longshot Thread

I'm going to take a small chance on New Age Dawning (Exeter 13:40) at 20/1 with B365.

He hasn't seen the track for 3 years, but was a progressive novice hurdler previously, with bits and pieces of form to suggest he would have been rated in the mid/high 130's over hurdles if he hadn't had the setback. He runs in his maiden chase (handicap) off 127 today, and whilst it's hard to claim he's well-handicapped, and the absence obviously tempers enthusiasm somewhat, I've had a dabble nonetheless.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm going to take a small chance on New Age Dawning (Exeter 13:40) at 20/1 with B365.

He hasn't seen the track for 3 years, but was a progressive novice hurdler previously, with bits and pieces of form to suggest he would have been rated in the mid/high 130's over hurdles if he hadn't had the setback. He runs in his maiden chase (handicap) off 127 today, and whilst it's hard to claim he's well-handicapped, and the absence obviously tempers enthusiasm somewhat, I've had a dabble nonetheless.
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GL. I’m trying the same with Faustinovick in that race. Had a severe case of seconditis last term in some decent races and one of the few horses to run to form for the Tizzards.
 
They say fortune favours the brave. This is either brave or mental. A wee bit like a football fan turning up stripped to the waist when it's -10C and blowing a blizzard.

Ascot 3.00 - Dinons 100/1 5 places - It’s not that long ago he was rated 145 for Gordon Elliott and the handicapper has been very quick to drop him sharply, down to 130 here after one run over hurdles over a year ago for his new trainer. Why didn't they get him back to the track in a £10k Class 3? :blink: Five places in a 13-runner field is generous. Watch him finish sixth...
 
MAC THE MAN 335a 28/1 5 places skybet.

Disappointed in the betfair hurdle last year but was still going well when b/d at the last the year before off this mark.
Stable going well.
 
LW Hdle - Third Wind 40/1, 4pl - plenty to find on the figures but Hughie Morrison is no mug and doesn't run no-hopers, especially at this track. The extra place makes the price huge.
 
With Mack The Man a NR, I've reinvested the money on Drop The Anchor at 20/1. Too high up my ratings table to be that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
King George - Dashel Drasher 100/1 - now, before you send the van with the men in white coats, hear me out...

I'm not suggesting for a moment this will or even can win; I'm just suggesting that I think the price is completely wrong.

Then again, I have no idea whatsoever if they even intend to run him in the race.

But here's my thinking:

Last time out at his beloved Ascot was his seasonal reappearance so I for one don't find it remotely difficult to forgive him a slightly disappointing effort on the face of it.

However, on the day, he was only 4/1, the same price as Lostintranslation who was getting 6lbs. LIT is top price 16/1 for the King George. Now, I think that's too short but it does point to DD's price being wrong. Second on the day was Master Tommytucker (level weights, 7/2) to whom DD had proved clearly superior when they met the time before in that Ascot race.

Dashel Drasher's top RPR is 169, achieved on his final run last season. It is higher than the current RPRs for the following entries:

Kemboy 33/1
R Pagaille 25/1
Melon 33/1
Mister Fisher 33/1
Chantry House 6/1
Tornado Flyer 33/1
Envoi Allen 9/1
Imperial Aura 33/1
FOTR 33/1
Chatham St Lad 66/1
Saint Calvados 25/1
LIT 16/1
Fusil Raffles 33/1
Janidil 33/1
Midnight Shadow 40/1
Defi Du Seuil 66/1

OK, guys, I'll come quietly now...
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Delighted to find Dashel Drasher still there after today's declaration stage. I'm tempted to go in again at 66/1, especially if any books go extra places at that price.

Edit - managed to get something on at 80/1 but just the three places for now so I really need one of the big three to under-perform, assuming it runs.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Another stupid bet, probably: Elegant Escape 66/1, 4pl - it was showing at 125/1 a few minutes ago and I tried to back it but the price kept changing. Clearly somebody decided the 125s was too long. Sentiment as much as anything but 146 might be a lenient mark on his best form.
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That was in the 2m hcap hurdle won by Samarrive a couple of weeks back. It was a good race, even if the winner bombed the other day, and Elegant Escape was able to go with them for the first half of the race before dropping back but I noted him staying on again up the hill past beaten horses.

I imagine connections will have been delighted with that run considering he's a staying chaser and he's now very well handicapped, down to 156, 6lbs lower than when a close third in the 2019 Hennessy, in which he was trying to give the winner 11lbs and the runner-up (The Conditional) 23lbs with Beware The Bear (rec 2lbs) fourth. The Conditional subsequently won the Ultima off a higher mark while Beware The Bear had already won the Ultima that calendar year. That was good form.

Lightly-raced since a decent sixth in the Welsh National on his immediate run after the Hennessy, he looked like he might retain a lot of his ability at Sandown. He was 9/4f off 160 for that Welsh National and it's possible the Hennessy took the edge off him. He'll be fresh and ready for this renewal and 25/1 is just too big for one of his class.

Welsh National - Elegant Escape 25/1
 
I've heard worse ideas D.O and whats also interesting is Tizzard is talking about letting Native river stand his ground which means EE would carry 10lb less dead weight than he did when 6th and 10lb at this distance in what usually is the Chepstow Mud translates to a lot of lengths. Be even more interesting should he put a claimer on. Good luck Mo.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Welsh Grand National - Lake View Lad 40/1 - now 4lbs lower than when he beat Santini and Native River at Aintree last season. Probably flattered by the form but his other best form (winning the Rowland Merrick and a big run in the Ultima) is in the same ball park on RPRs. Unlikely to be trained for the Grand National, I reckon, since he's been there twice and bombed both times, and Ayr likely to throw up ground that's too fast.
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Checking the cards and prices yesterday, I noticed LVL was stronger for the RM and very weak in the WGN so cashed out for a nett loss of 10% on the bet. Better than a 100% loss for a non-runner. Take the minor hit and move on...
 
If you act fairly smartly you can get 50/1 Achille for the WGN tomorrow. It's blue across the board and generally shorter than 2os.

It's been on my radar but been doing Christmas dinner Round II today so not paying much attention to the racing. I've gone in quite heavily in anticipation of an attractive cash-out option being offered.
 
Double Shuffle - 3.10 Kempton. Horse owes connections nothing, feeling they’re picking and choosing races for him. Obviously likes Kempton, and win or lose could be a swansong for him.

Chancing him e/w at ridiculous prices, though the drift may tell the story.
 
Double J said:
Double Shuffle - 3.10 Kempton. Horse owes connections nothing, feeling they’re picking and choosing races for him. Obviously likes Kempton, and win or lose could be a swansong for him.

Chancing him e/w at ridiculous prices, though the drift may tell the story.
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I know where you're coming from, DJ, and I know the old fella has done you a turn or two down the years but think he's gone at the game now. If mine doesn't win I hope Double Shuffle wins for you.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I know where you're coming from, DJ, and I know the old fella has done you a turn or two down the years but think he's gone at the game now. If mine doesn't win I hope Double Shuffle wins for you.
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He’s as more likely to pull up as he to win, but has everything the horse would want today. I just can’t let it go untouched at current prices. Sentiment may be clouding my judgement of it though.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If you act fairly smartly you can get 50/1 Achille for the WGN tomorrow. It's blue across the board and generally shorter than 2os.

It's been on my radar but been doing Christmas dinner Round II today so not paying much attention to the racing. I've gone in quite heavily in anticipation of an attractive cash-out option being offered.
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I was seriously tempted to let this one ride (now 14/1) but was happy with the cash-out offered as it covered my outsider bets in the race and I really couldn't see it actually winning. Watch it stot in now...
 
Double J said:
He’s as more likely to pull up as he to win, but has everything the horse would want today. I just can’t let it go untouched at current prices. Sentiment may be clouding my judgement of it though.
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None runner. Least i get void bet rather than losing bet ��
 
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