The 2021 Longshot Thread

Gave up the outside to no-one and didn't get home...

Well done on Vintage Clouds, Outsider. I don't see it on the thread. Did I miss it?

Anyway...


Thursday - Kim Muir - Go Another One 33/1 6pl - earlier on the card, The Shunter is 9/2f for the Plate and has the profile to win. Go Another One has a very similar profile if you strip out his non-trying runs and, on my figures, has just as good a chance of winning the Kim Muir but is nearly eight times the price. That’s ridiculous value considering his trainer’s strike rate in the UK (3 wins from 5 runners) this season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Gave up the outside to no-one and didn't get home...

Well done on Vintage Clouds, Outsider. I don't see it on the thread.

I forgot.typical.i did put it on another forum.lol.just happy to back a winner.i dont usually back 11 yr olds at Cheltenham but it was back down to 143 and had a breathing op just like when he was 2nd in the race and was happy to see cheekpieces added as 7 out of the last 8 had worn headgear.
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I like these horses like Vintage Clouds that pop up at Cheltenham year after year. I’m backing Thomas Darby tomorrow for that reason.
 
Outsider said:
Desert Orchid said:
Gave up the outside to no-one and didn't get home...

Well done on Vintage Clouds, Outsider. I don't see it on the thread.

I forgot.typical.i did put it on another forum.lol.just happy to back a winner.i dont usually back 11 yr olds at Cheltenham but it was back down to 143 and had a breathing op just like when he was 2nd in the race and was happy to see cheekpieces added as 7 out of the last 8 had worn headgear.
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Yes. I had it top rated on old form and meant to back it but got distracted.
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First up today...

Blue Sari (Coral Cup) x Embittered (Grand Annual) double 65/1 (plus BOGs if you can get them, and extra places, just in case).

Confident.
 
I've had a punt on Bun Duron at 33s for the Grand Annual. 2nd two years ago, 3rd in the QM last year. Plenty excuses for recent form figures. Also put it in the forecast with Sky Pirate.
 
Coral Cup - Nelson River 100/1 7pl - went up to 142 for a decent run behind Pentland Hills in the Triumph two years ago and was only 7 lengths behind Pic D'Orhy in last year's Betfair Hurdle off that mark. Also only 11 lengths behind Buzz in a very hot Ascot race first time up this season and eased off next time out. Been kept busy enough on the Flat so should be fit but he's in here off 133. In theory that would make him a Betfair winner so really shouldn't be that kind of price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coral Cup - Nelson River 100/1 7pl - went up to 142 for a decent run behind Pentland Hills in the Triumph two years ago and was only 7 lengths behind Pic D'Orhy in last year's Betfair Hurdle off that mark. Also only 11 lengths behind Buzz in a very hot Ascot race first time up this season and eased off next time out. Been kept busy enough on the Flat so should be fit but he's in here off 133. In theory that would make him a Betfair winner so really shouldn't be that kind of price.
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Had a small e/w on it last night...

His dosage puts him smack bang in with all the middle distance hurdlers...points in every category too...should stay
 
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Thanks for that. He scored quite high in my little system but for some reason I didn’t back it. I have now. The others being Guard your Dreams, Heaven Help Us, Dan’s le Vent and Shakemupharry. Having said that my little system doesn’t seem to work well at Cheltenham so this year I’m running with the placed in the previous year system. I also always have to back Sophie Leeches horses and I quite fancy Sayo. My favourite race after the Ultima. I do miss going to the bookies during Cheltenham week. It used to focus my mind more. I assume the race will be won by Nicky Henderson though.
 
moe said:
I like these horses like Vintage Clouds that pop up at Cheltenham year after year. I’m backing Thomas Darby tomorrow for that reason.
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moe said:
Thanks for that. He scored quite high in my little system but for some reason I didn’t back it. I have now. The others being Guard your Dreams, Heaven Help Us, Dan’s le Vent and Shakemupharry. Having said that my little system doesn’t seem to work well at Cheltenham so this year I’m running with the placed in the previous year system. I also always have to back Sophie Leeches horses and I quite fancy Sayo. My favourite race after the Ultima. I do miss going to the bookies during Cheltenham week. It used to focus my mind more. I assume the race will be won by Nicky Henderson though.
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Hopefully !
 
Artic Pearl in the X Country is in my ‘why the hell are they running him, he doesn’t have a chance in hell’ system. Someone said on racing radio ages ago that Brassil never runs horses for the sake of it.
 
Why is Heaven help us running in this instead of the county.did me a good return last time.so I have to have a saver in this coral cup at big odds.
 
Outsider said:
Why is Heaven help us running in this instead of the county.did me a good return last time.so I have to have a saver in this coral cup at big odds.
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Legendary stuff, Outsider. Well done.

I'm sure I had it on my radar at some point. I went for something else in the end.
 
Shout, Outsider!

A very unsatisfactory race apart from that. The winning jockey caused the mayhem at the start too.

I was spitting blood from early in the race at Blue Sari's jockey. He lost six lengths and a good position for no good reason and ended up trying to make his ground when the leaders were quickening down the hill. Could have given the winner a race but would probably have been second anyway, which would have got me a decent return for a fairly hefty bet. Lots of hard luck stories in behind and, the winner and Blue Sari apart, the handicapper did a great job.
 
Martello Sky in the mares novice. 50/1 way too big. Stable in form. Second she beat last time out hacked up since. 14/1 shot world be fair.
 
County Hurdle - Belfast Banter 66/1 6 places - people with long enough memories will recall that I put this one up earlier this season when it came over to contest the top-class Ascot handicap won by Not So Sleepy. Belfast Banter got a shocker of ride that day under exaggerated hold-up tactics before storming through after the turn for home before that effort took its toll after the last. It was backed down to 10/1 that day off the same mark as here. The chances are its subsequent form is about looking after its mark with a view to a big handicap although I don't imagine this race could have been seriously targeted since his mark is nowhere near high enough to make the usual cut so this might be an opportunity they don't want to pass up. At the price, I'm happy to pay to find out.
 
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