The 2021 Longshot Thread

Kempton 6.15 - Wirraway 100/1 - it's not often I get tracker alerts for 100/1 shots. In fact this is probably a first. He was reportedly catching pigeons at home last season when trained by Gosden for Godolphin but bombed on his only start. Now making his debut for a relatively obscure trainer, who knows, maybe the change of scenery will spark the pilot light again. He's obviously had issues with only that one racecourse appearance and now aged five but I'd be kicking myself black and blue and inviting sundry others to do likewise if he went and won at that price and I hadn't backed him!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kempton 6.15 - Wirraway 100/1 - it's not often I get tracker alerts for 100/1 shots. In fact this is probably a first. He was reportedly catching pigeons at home last season when trained by Gosden for Godolphin but bombed on his only start. Now making his debut for a relatively obscure trainer, who knows, maybe the change of scenery will spark the pilot light again. He's obviously had issues with only that one racecourse appearance and now aged five but I'd be kicking myself black and blue and inviting sundry others to do likewise if he went and won at that price and I hadn't backed him!
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Good luck.

https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/for...keep-an-eye-on&p=739987&viewfull=1#post739987
 
Wow. I'm delighted to read that, barjon. I think I'll go in again in the morning if it goes longer than 100s. Just checked back through my email but there's no alert. Then I realised it was on 15 July I read the gallop report but I see that was a few days after the race. The gallop report is a weekly one and I only note the date I receive it rather than the date of the gallop. It's possible the gallop was a few days before that race.

Cheers.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wow. I'm delighted to read that, barjon. I think I'll go in again in the morning if it goes longer than 100s. Just checked back through my email but there's no alert. Then I realised it was on 15 July I read the gallop report but I see that was a few days after the race. The gallop report is a weekly one and I only note the date I receive it rather than the date of the gallop. It's possible the gallop was a few days before that race.

Cheers.
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200/1 now DO.
 
I’m tempted to back it small each way but who is the trainer? Genuinely never heard of her. Quick look at her Twitter and she does seem to breed horses and she’s apparently had big priced winners in the past. I just wonder how a horse can cost that amount of money at first and then be offloaded to a no name trainer? Surely it hasn’t regressed so much that say Appleby or someone of his standard wouldn’t take a chance on it?
 
nickf88 said:
I’m tempted to back it small each way but who is the trainer? Genuinely never heard of her. Quick look at her Twitter and she does seem to breed horses and she’s apparently had big priced winners in the past. I just wonder how a horse can cost that amount of money at first and then be offloaded to a no name trainer? Surely it hasn’t regressed so much that say Appleby or someone of his standard wouldn’t take a chance on it?
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I've had 40p ew lol. Cost over 400grand sold for 5.5grand and runs against another gosden/godolphin one that cost 550,000.
 
nickf88 said:
I’m tempted to back it small each way but who is the trainer? Genuinely never heard of her. Quick look at her Twitter and she does seem to breed horses and she’s apparently had big priced winners in the past. I just wonder how a horse can cost that amount of money at first and then be offloaded to a no name trainer? Surely it hasn’t regressed so much that say Appleby or someone of his standard wouldn’t take a chance on it?
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Well, the big cost was as a yearling so had to be based on potential rather than any demonstrable ability. Presumably.he never showed anything whatsoever at 2 and 3 (or maybe unruly hence the gelding) and although Gosden gave him a trial run he couldn’t have thought he’d ever got him ready to race. It’s got to be a stretch to think he’ll. suddenly come good after all the effort that must have been put into him, but you never know.
 
Cheers for the replies gents, much appreciated, I’ll have £2 each way just incase it places at the very least.
 
Ran well for about three furlongs :lol:

On a slightly more serious note, it wasn't off an inch. Looked like the jockey's instructions were 'run him just off the pace for a couple of furlongs and then let him coast'.
 
Ayr 3.15 Voix Du Reve 25/1 - rank outsider of just the six runners but could well have the beating of them all if he can belatedly run to what might have been second-season potential when with Willie Mullins. Current trainer Iain Jardine has him in cracking form over hurdles and I reckon the aversion to him back over fences might be misplaced. He ended his novice season rated 158 and could reasonably have been expected to go on to become a 168 second-season chaser but he presumably had a problem after a disappointing run in the Bobbyjo and left the yard after an eight-month spell off the track. Three jogs around to start with for the new trainer were then followed by two good hurdles runs at Musselburgh before another poor one at Kelso behind The Shunter. My figures for those two hurdles runs weren't far off his best hurdles runs for Mullins hence my hopefulness that he might be as good as he ever was, in which case he might really only have to fear a return to top form by Theinval.
 
Some of my favourite horses in that race. Jardine is very good at freshening new horses up. And, of course, my local trainer John Mackie sends one up, too. I was wondering if, with racing being cancelled on Saturday, it would give an advantage to the northern horses, assuming that the southern horses might travel up tomorrow and have to stay over two nights instead of one. Or perhaps they just travel up on the day?
 
Newbury 1.40 - Mulzim 20/1 - when I looked at the betting last night the best odds I could find were 14/1 so he's clearly drifted quite a bit but I seldom allow that to sway me off one. Betting on these types is unlikely to cause me severe damage as it's usually only fun money. Mulzim is a '+p' hose on the AW and hasn’t run on turf since 2017 but I would imagine he trains on it. Daniel Muscutt has a 75% win/place (4 places) record for the trainer this season with a win rate of 38%. It’s an incredibly tight race on my figures and almost impossible to prefer one over the other so I've plumped for this one each-way and hope the dead eight run.
 
It's an 'omen'....

My two longshots are now 28/1 and 22/1, which works out at 666/1 the double :lol:

How can I let that go??
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 1.40 - Mulzim 20/1 - when I looked at the betting last night the best odds I could find were 14/1 so he's clearly drifted quite a bit but I seldom allow that to sway me off one. Betting on these types is unlikely to cause me severe damage as it's usually only fun money. Mulzim is a '+p' hose on the AW and hasn’t run on turf since 2017 but I would imagine he trains on it. Daniel Muscutt has a 75% win/place (4 places) record for the trainer this season with a win rate of 38%. It’s an incredibly tight race on my figures and almost impossible to prefer one over the other so I've plumped for this one each-way and hope the dead eight run.
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Strange-looking ride. Came there as if he was going to pick them up easily but wasn't asked a serious question. Dunno. Maybe not letting himself down on the ground but certainly up to winning a race of this nature off this mark. Losses lent.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ayr 3.15 Voix Du Reve 25/1 - rank outsider of just the six runners but could well have the beating of them all if he can belatedly run to what might have been second-season potential when with Willie Mullins. Current trainer Iain Jardine has him in cracking form over hurdles and I reckon the aversion to him back over fences might be misplaced. He ended his novice season rated 158 and could reasonably have been expected to go on to become a 168 second-season chaser but he presumably had a problem after a disappointing run in the Bobbyjo and left the yard after an eight-month spell off the track. Three jogs around to start with for the new trainer were then followed by two good hurdles runs at Musselburgh before another poor one at Kelso behind The Shunter. My figures for those two hurdles runs weren't far off his best hurdles runs for Mullins hence my hopefulness that he might be as good as he ever was, in which case he might really only have to fear a return to top form by Theinval.
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Ran a great race and his tendency to jump right probably cost him the race. I actually thought he had it won approaching the last but a peck there cost him momentum.

Great run for the money.
 
Scottish Grand National - Chidswell 40/1 6pl - only 2lbs higher than when a strong-staying winner of the 2019 Grimthorpe but earlier this season would probably have run away with a good-ground staying handicap at Kelso off 6lbs higher than now had he not repeatedly jumped right. There's obviously a chance it's a habit he's developing but he can jump straight. Either way, I have him very well handicapped and no 40/1 shot.
 
415 curragh.
I think betfair must know something.i like 2 horses in this and betfair are miles higher with there prices.
TRESORIER fas drifted out to 40/1 and I dont know if it's trying tomorrow as its stepping up to a mile.in my alerts but that was over 6f running on.
The other one is COLFER ME which is a massive 80/1 5p or 45/1 7p with betfair. 30/1 bet 365.
I thought I backed this a few weeks ago but it hasnt run since september and has switched stables.
Last year it finished 2nd in the irish Lincoln off 90.to Bowerman with saltonstall 4th.
Since then it finished 13/18,9/16,17/18,8/8 and 22/22 which doesnt bode well,but runs here off 78.
 
Outsider said:
415 curragh.
I think betfair must know something.i like 2 horses in this and betfair are miles higher with there prices.
TRESORIER fas drifted out to 40/1 and I dont know if it's trying tomorrow as its stepping up to a mile.in my alerts but that was over 6f running on.
The other one is COLFER ME which is a massive 80/1 5p or 45/1 7p with betfair. 30/1 bet 365.
I thought I backed this a few weeks ago but it hasnt run since september and has switched stables.
Last year it finished 2nd in the irish Lincoln off 90.to Bowerman with saltonstall 4th.
Since then it finished 13/18,9/16,17/18,8/8 and 22/22 which doesnt bode well,but runs here off 78.
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Ah well, in for a penny.....

GL
 
Desert Orchid said:
Scottish Grand National - Chidswell 40/1 6pl - only 2lbs higher than when a strong-staying winner of the 2019 Grimthorpe but earlier this season would probably have run away with a good-ground staying handicap at Kelso off 6lbs higher than now had he not repeatedly jumped right. There's obviously a chance it's a habit he's developing but he can jump straight. Either way, I have him very well handicapped and no 40/1 shot.
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I've gone in again just in case. Only 20 on the exchange. Might be a precursor to a more general move.

Looks like someone of influence/effluence has put up The Hollow Ginge. He's blue across the board and down to 20s in a few places.
 
Fred Darling - Ville De Grace 25/1 4pl - doesn't hold an entry for the Guineas so no reason for it to be 'prepping' for anything bigger and Kingscote is 5/11 for the trainer who is in blinding form. How often do Stoutes go off at 25/1? Sky are going 22s to 5 places for the more careful.
 
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