The 2021 Longshot Thread

Maxbet said:
The Ex French Pascal Bary trained runner Bugle Major, a Juddmonte cast off and now with Richard Hughes, could represent a fair bit of value at 100/1 8 places Skybet.

His sire Mizzen Mast produces horses that love to hear their hooves rattle. Can be excused his run over 1m2f at Newmarket on soft ground after his stable move and now back to a mile for the first time on a fast surface, the distance he's been cruising along at in previous runs.

His last run before his move was a good second to the A Fabre trained, Godolphin owned, Magny Cours, who was raised to 115 for the run. Getting up in the final 100 yds and asserting close home.

Bugle Major was given a rating of 99 by the English handicapper, dropped to 98 for his defeat at Newmarket....That could mean he is a stone well in here, coupled with the fast ground and a front running Charge of the light Brigade style, catch me if you can run...."da da, da durghhhh"
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Gone in again at a boosted 160/1 with Lads. Only 6 places though


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First race - Vertiginous 100/1 7pl - nothing more than pure gut. Something in the deep recesses of my mind about B Meehan's second time up.
 
I’ve had a look at the Hunt Cup and I like Fame and Acclaim who is totally friendless in the market. And Ouzo. Draws put me off plenty of others but still backed them especially Irish Admiral.
 
I liked the way BOWERMAN won the irish Lincoln last year and I cant believe he is 100/1 but I've gone in again.

35/1 ten places. Bet 365
 
One more in the Hunt Cup - Bell Rock 50/1, 6 places - looks to have improved again this season and is the class horse in the race.
 
viking said:
Gone in again at a boosted 160/1 with Lads. Only 6 places though
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He ran a blinder, tacked across to the stand side, cruising but stuck behind the wall, a gap appears closes and sandwiches him, the jockey squeezes through only to run into another wall...finished with a flurry. definitely one for the notebook. With a clear run, would have been top 5..
 
Windsor Castle - Freyabella 500/1 - high draw and I like backing JC-H outsiders at these meetings. Should probably be no more than 50s given half the field will be beaten by the draw.

Also - Ernie's Valentine 20/1 - Cole doesn't send them to this meeting unless he really likes them.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Windsor Castle - Freyabella 500/1 - high draw and I like backing JC-H outsiders at these meetings. Should probably be no more than 50s given half the field will be beaten by the draw.

Also - Ernie's Valentine 20/1 - Cole doesn't send them to this meeting unless he really likes them.
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Got a real run from Freyabella for three and a half furlongs! :lol: Still probably finished nearer first than last so not the stupidest bet I've ever made.

And another win for the far side.
 
Last of the day - Angel Of The Glen 66/1, 5 pl - only 4lbs shy of the top on RPRs and the rails draw. Far too big a price.
 
I backed Mostly for the last at 6/1 - end up being a longshot - 20+ on the machine. Dettori didn't try a lick. I blame Thady.
 
A very quiet day today.

I might not even see the racing.

However, I've taken three qualifiers against the field in the Britannia (could have been five or six to be honest):

Akmaam 40/1 - Shadwell second string and a gut feeling that Crowley may have felt obliged to stick to the other. Dane O'Neill and the black cap often pick up one of these big ones.

Quintillus 33/1 - Godolphin in a handicap si simply too big a price.

Qaader 22/1 - Just in case Crowley is right :lol:
 
I've had a little on Big Narstie in the Britannia. 85 on the machine. Tracker horse, was behind one of the favs in the last at Ascot lto.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Akmaam 40/1 - Shadwell second string and a gut feeling that Crowley may have felt obliged to stick to the other. Dane O'Neill and the black cap often pick up one of these big ones.

Quintillus 33/1 - Godolphin in a handicap si simply too big a price.

Qaader 22/1 - Just in case Crowley is right :lol:
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Good runs from Quintillus and Qaader. I reckon loads of winners will emerge from that race.
 
Three qualifiers in the next:

Act Of Wisdom 25/1, Marshall Plan 28/1 and Sir William Bruce 33/1 - Godolphin and Coolmore in handicaps.
 
Sunstrike is worthy of a decent bet in the Albany. Paddy are 5 places and she’s 25/1 for an in form jockey, riding for Qatar/Gosden. Slow away on debut (and again next time out) she won easier than the margin suggests in the latter.

She’s from a family of incredibly fast horses and she won’t mind any rain.
 
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First up today:

3.40 - Miss Amulet 22/1, 6pl (25s to fewer places available) - I still believe this is a G1 filly and I haven't abandoned the idea that she might win some day back at a mile but I backed her ante-post last summer for the 1000 Guineas on the back of some really smart time performances so it will be interesting to see if they just let her rip today. She's still only 4lbs off the top on RPRs (would probably be top on my 2yo figures) so is probably twice the price she should be and the extra places will help improve the prospects of a profit.
 
In the Chookie Embra - Alounak 40/1, 5 places - went up to 114 (from 110) for finishing second in last year's Hardwicke (G2) in soft ground but has been inconsistent since. Gets to run off 104 here so every chance if he consents to try.
 
Dandalla 28/1, 6 pl (33s to fewer) in the Commonwealth Cup - won the Albany last year and beat Fev Rover in soft in a G2 at the July meeting. Disappointing runs this season require forgiving, though. Decent back-up for Miss Amulet in case the latter's draw beats her.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First up today:

3.40 - Miss Amulet 22/1, 6pl (25s to fewer places available) - I still believe this is a G1 filly and I haven't abandoned the idea that she might win some day back at a mile but I backed her ante-post last summer for the 1000 Guineas on the back of some really smart time performances so it will be interesting to see if they just let her rip today. She's still only 4lbs off the top on RPRs (would probably be top on my 2yo figures) so is probably twice the price she should be and the extra places will help improve the prospects of a profit.
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Sixth (I think) but I don't think I'll get paid due to the non-runners.

Desert Orchid said:
Dandalla 28/1, 6 pl (33s to fewer) in the Commonwealth Cup - won the Albany last year and beat Fev Rover in soft in a G2 at the July meeting. Disappointing runs this season require forgiving, though. Decent back-up for Miss Amulet in case the latter's draw beats her.
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Fourth but I went in again at 40s just before the off to four places so that might end up making up for the Miss Amulet disappointment.
 
Wokingham.
I'm a bit too late putting this up as he was 33s but now only 20s
ROPEY GUEST I thought he ran a decent race when he was 6th.finished 7th over 7f earlier in week.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Chookie Embra - Alounak 40/1, 5 places - went up to 114 (from 110) for finishing second in last year's Hardwicke (G2) in soft ground but has been inconsistent since. Gets to run off 104 here so every chance if he consents to try.
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Did anyone else notice how high this one carried his head? Is it a sign of breathing issues or pain? The jockey never looked too bothered about it and rode him on a long, low rein and the horse responded for more vigorous riding but the head carriage was very noticeable.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sixth (I think) but I don't think I'll get paid due to the non-runners.



Fourth but I went in again at 40s just before the off to four places so that might end up making up for the Miss Amulet disappointment.
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I must have followed you with that one. My bets weren’t showing up on my account to I ended up double backing some horses and that was one of them thankfully. It didn’t feature in my little ratings system so something must have made me back it!
 
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