The 2021 Longshot Thread

barjon said:
Drawbias say:

“The six furlongs at Goodwood is run over a straight course, and it appears that it is an advantage to be drawn low. This advantage is more significant the larger the number of runners.”

Please note as from 30th March 2011 Stall numbering on right handed courses was switched, so that the inside stall is always stall number 1. However the results have been plotted in the chart below as if the stall numbering has always been his way at Goodwood. So for instance if there was a winner from stall 12 of 12 prior to 2011, this would be plotted below as stall 1 of 12.
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I'm talking, what I've seen all week... Looks to be a definite favour towards the stand side...
 
barjon said:
Drawbias say:“The six furlongs at Goodwood is run over a straight course, and it appears that it is an advantage to be drawn low. This advantage is more significant the larger the number of runners.”
Didn’t seem to be the case yesterday, though.
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This fact would suggest the course is running significantly in favour of the high numbers.
 
I know yesterday they said on racing radio to go for low drawn horses and that seemed to be the case. ( the ones I fancied today are all drawn high though…)
 
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It's a bit of a waste of time using fields of a dozen or fewer to extrapolate to a field like the Stewards' Cup. The best guide might be the consolation race.

The going stick readings suggest the ground is a bit better near the stands' rail (high) but my scattergun has hit runners from all over the track.
 
I was down to Zargun (nr), Total Commitment, Atalanta Boy, Barbill and Justanother bottle. I’m sure I can find a few more. Yesterday I added Jason Weavers tip, Ken Pittersons paddock pick at the last minute and they both placed.
 
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I've added Count Otto at 80/1 to 7 places. Stays further than six and hope he can bag the near rail early. Not too far off the top of my ratings.
 
An ante-post longshot for the Ebor:

Deja 40/1

He went up from 105 to 112 for an easy win in the Old Newton Cup last summer and, off his new mark, was a well-fancied 12/1 shot for the Ebor, in which he ran too freely and ended up not running his race.

He's been raised in class this season and not showing, bringing him back down to 105 so we know he can win a top race off this mark. I've no idea if the intention is to run but he'll certainly make the cut (currently 22 in the weights) and the price is ample compensation for any doubts at this stage. On his Old Newton Cup form his price of last year (12/1) is probably much closer to what he should be.
 
Ah the Ebor.

A few of the lads I know are going, I've been asked to go.

The fact I've never been to York has to change one of these days!
 
I’ve gone for Tribal Craft in the EBOR. Her performance coming second to Wonderful Tonight was yet another notable step up for this late developer. For me, as someone who takes a look at any Jeff Smith horse and also likes to see Mastercraftsman in the pedigree, she’s is one I have followed. If she runs she’ll have a great chance. 16/1 available.
 
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Tout Seul said:
I’ve gone for Tribal Craft in the EBOR. Her performance coming second to Wonderful Tonight was yet another notable step up for this late developer. For me, as someone who takes a look at any Jeff Smith horse and also likes to see Mastercraftsman in the pedigree, she’s is one I have followed. If she runs she’ll have a great chance. 16/1 available.
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I couldn't have told you she was entered but I agree it was a very promising run the other day.
 
Tout Seul said:
I’ve gone for Tribal Craft in the EBOR. Her performance coming second to Wonderful Tonight was yet another notable step up for this late developer. For me, as someone who takes a look at any Jeff Smith horse and also likes to see Mastercraftsman in the pedigree, she’s is one I have followed. If she runs she’ll have a great chance. 16/1 available.
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As this is the longshot thread I would add that the trainer of Alcohol Free strongly indicated that he thought she would do well in the Juddmonte. Given concerns earlier in the season as to whether she stays this might appear odd. However her performance in the Sussex at Goodwood indicated that she can cruise along and then launch herself at a fast pace.
I have now backed both Tribal Craft and Alcohol Free ew way in their likely races and also in a smaller stakes double. Given that the prices offered one canget over £1000 for a £10 ew double and the placed element alone would not be too shabby.
 
Tomorrow at Ripon in the GSW, I've taken Brad The Brief at 25/1. I'm not sure he'll be trying, though. 5lb claimer Schofield is 4-13 (plus two seconds) for Dascombe this season and Brad The Brief was an improver in Group races towards the end of last season in soft ground. Ayr might be on his agenda, though, and a dropping mark could see him chucked in there as he started the season on 109 (104 here) but at 25/1 (and blue earlier when I backed him) I thought he was worth a pop.
 
Two more longshots in the GSW: Muscika 33/1 and Illusionist 40/1 (6pl).

I have Muscika very well handicapped on his very best form so was always going to be looking at backing him. I was hoping he'd go out to 40s or 50s this morning but it hasn't happened and, in fact, he was blue in a place or two yesterday evening. This is the jockey’s first ride for the trainer this season but she has decent stats for a number of top northern trainers so I’m going to take her claim as a positive.

I thought it might be interesting that Grant Tuer was quoted earlier in the week in the RP that if you’re not going for a touch you’re not playing the game correctly, or words to that effect. I didn’t read the article, just the headline quote at the website, but I just wonder if he was forewarning us of a gamble on Illusionist which is now 8lbs lower than at his peak mark of last season.

Just fun money, though.
 
In the Geoffrey Freer I've taken 28/1 Sleeping Lion. I think that's maybe twice what he should be. I have Hukum well clear and have backed him accordingly at evens (as well as in a double with Mota at 11/2) but take him out and I have only one pound between the next three and Sleeping Lion is one of them yet he's a far longer price. Shame there's only eight runners as three places in the market w/o Hukum would have been a very appealing bet.
 
I didnt back JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE yesterday as I thought they might be saving him for a 5f race which hes always seemed better over.
Hes down to run at york on Wednesday over 5f and where most are 8 or 10/1 bet 365 go a massive 20/1
Worth the risk at that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Geoffrey Freer I've taken 28/1 Sleeping Lion. I think that's maybe twice what he should be. I have Hukum well clear and have backed him accordingly at evens (as well as in a double with Mota at 11/2) but take him out and I have only one pound between the next three and Sleeping Lion is one of them yet he's a far longer price. Shame there's only eight runners as three places in the market w/o Hukum would have been a very appealing bet.
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Hukum ran as well as your ratings said he should, desert. Commanding display. Rodrigo Diaz was a bit of an eye-popper running miles better than his rating and price. Got to be considered at this level and long distance now. Both Pablo Escobarr and Red Verdon were a bit unlucky being caught in a pocket with Red Verdon suffering the most. Wouldn’t have troubled the winner, but might have contested second with a clear run.
 
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