The 2021 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
An ante-post longshot for the Ebor:

Deja 40/1

He went up from 105 to 112 for an easy win in the Old Newton Cup last summer and, off his new mark, was a well-fancied 12/1 shot for the Ebor, in which he ran too freely and ended up not running his race.

He's been raised in class this season and not showing, bringing him back down to 105 so we know he can win a top race off this mark. I've no idea if the intention is to run but he'll certainly make the cut (currently 22 in the weights) and the price is ample compensation for any doubts at this stage. On his Old Newton Cup form his price of last year (12/1) is probably much closer to what he should be.
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I've gone in again at the same price.

He was always going to make the cut but has done so with at least five to spare at the five-day stage and now has a jockey booked.

That jockey is 3lbs claimer Cameron Noble, about whom I don't know a great deal, but his record for the trainer this season is three wins, three seconds and a third from just nine rides. The trainer clearly trusts him so who am I to disagree?

If he's still the same price on Saturday with the extra places I'll be going in again.
 
Two longshots in the opener at York.

Lahore 33/1 - has maybe had issues this season causing him to be so lightly raced but the handicapper appears to have gone really easily on him, dropping him to 97, but he did win here last summer off 101 and wasn’t beaten far in the Ayr Gold Cup off 104. They might feel they need to get him up the ratings again to make the cut at Ayr. The extreme draw is a concern, though.

Ornate 80/1, 6pl - next door to Lahore so draw a concern too but might be asked to go forward. He looks like he might be starting to run into form and is undeniably well handicapped considering he was only 2½ lengths behind Battaash in the King George at Goodwood last summer. He might just be a total canine now but he's still likely to win more often than once in 81 races :lol:
 
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York Friday 1.50 - Red Force One 66/1 - earned the comment “canter” when winning a small handicap at Ayr this summer and might have been trained for this since. He was beaten a head in a decent handicap at Haydock the season before last off 89 (82 here) and his new trainer (Kirby) is very adept at revitalising cast-offs. If extra places are offered tomorrow I might go in again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've gone in again at the same price.

He was always going to make the cut but has done so with at least five to spare at the five-day stage and now has a jockey booked.

That jockey is 3lbs claimer Cameron Noble, about whom I don't know a great deal, but his record for the trainer this season is three wins, three seconds and a third from just nine rides. The trainer clearly trusts him so who am I to disagree?

If he's still the same price on Saturday with the extra places I'll be going in again.
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Headscratcher...

Deja doesn't run.

Not sure why you'd go to the bother of having a jockey engaged three days before the race if you don't intend to run.

Oh well... onward and downward...

Edit - just noticed Deja takes up an engagement at Chester on Saturday in a non-handicap in which he has a strong chance on the ratings. Hanagan booked.
 
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510 york friday.
ABDUCTION 40/1 6 places skybet.
Holly Doyle interesting booking.
Hard to recommend on its last two runs but its 2nd at ponty has worked out well.
 
York

1.50 Cormier won at this course on his penultimate start beating Noble Masquerade and Anything Today who have subsequently franked the form when winning and I thought he toughed it out really well that day.

I've put a line though the last day at Newcastle as he had a bad start and deserves another chance. I know forum member Desert Orchid has mentioned him before so I hope he's keeping the faith.

It's admittedly a step up in grade but you know he does have a lovely racing weight for a competitive race like this carrying only eight stone.

3.35 I'm also chancing Moss Gill each way in the Nunthorpe. I find it hard to split the horses at the top of the betting and they can't all win so I'll try Moss Gill each way, who can out run the odds.
 
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Marb said:
York

1.50 Cormier
...

I've put a line though the last day at Newcastle as he had a bad start and deserves another chance. I know forum member Desert Orchid has mentioned him before so I hope he's keeping the faith.
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Sorry, Marb, not on my radar for this race.
 
Fair enough, DO.

Looking forward to it.

Nunthorpe looks a deeper race than last season too.
 
I know I set up a football bets thread on the sports section but this one is a longshot so I'm putting it on here.

Tonight I've backed Alashkert to shock Stevie G's Galacticos at Ibrox at 40/1. That's the kind of odds you'd expect for a team from one of the lower Scottish divisions and surely the visitors have to be much better than that kind of level otherwise what the hell are they doing this far into the qualifying stages. They're probably on a par (at the very least) with Aberdeen and St Johnstone who are also in action this evening and they probably wouldn't be 10/1 at Ibrox. It remains to be seen how the home side respond to pressure from the fans if the game looks tight.
 
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Hslf-time 0-0, Stevie's Galacticos down to 10 men, Alashkert down to 9/1.

I'll need to think about taking a profit...
 
FT 1-0. I took a profit early in the second half but the original bet was fully justified. 40/1 was totally wrong.
 
Can't recall the last time I bet so lightly at this meeting and today is the same.

Other longshots, though, are:

1.50 Restorer 33/1

5.10 Devilwala 40/1, Cuban Dancer 40/1
 
Desert Orchid said:
Can't recall the last time I bet so lightly at this meeting and today is the same.

Other longshots, though, are:

1.50 Restorer 33/1

5.10 Devilwala 40/1, Cuban Dancer 40/1
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Aye, me too. Good job really because my touch is the kiss of death lately :(
 
Another waste of time today.im lacking confidence now.tomorrow I've done
BLUE SEAL 33/1 8 PL skybet in the ebor.
SHOWMOLINA 810c 25/1
 
At least I backed that ‘Ginge’horse today but only because it reminded me of a NTD horse!
 
That’s really odd and the opposite to me. I started to put a small have an interest bet on Ginge but decided that the jump horse connection was what had made me consider and that I would simply be throwing money away. Too clever by half!
 
Melrose - Annandale 33/1, 6 pl - I didn't do any ratings for this race (very short of time these days) but I do recall having this one top-rated recently (Goodwood, maybe?) so the chances are he's over-priced. Guesswork to an extent, admittedly, but the six places make it tempting at the price.
 
Ebor - Mekong 20/1 top 4 finish (Sky only) - he sits mid-table on my figures but only about 4lbs shy of the top so his 100/1 odds are probably wrong but I can't see him winning. The place-only price looks the better value (equating to finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th at 160/1). I might have a wee interest at the 199 on the exchange in case the other jockeys decide to ride like Moore :p

Also, Alounak 28/1 8pl (Sky, 33s to fewer elsewhere) - I put this one up at the royal meeting but he hacked up next time. Second top on my figures but vulnerable to improvers so I'm happier to opt for the extra places. Should be thereabouts if on his A-game.
 
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York 4.45 Al Zaraqaan 33/1 5pl - top on my figures so a must bet with the extra places. Not the main bet, but a must-bet nonetheless.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Also, Alounak 28/1 8pl (Sky, 33s to fewer elsewhere) - I put this one up at the royal meeting but he hacked up next time. Second top on my figures but vulnerable to improvers so I'm happier to opt for the extra places. Should be thereabouts if on his A-game.
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Between this one and Max Vega at 33s, I've cleared a nice profit on the race so no complaints other than slight self-annoyance at allowing myself to believe the winner was a decoy for Mirann.

A win for Valley Forge (took 14s) in the Melrose put me nicely clear for the week.

Just watched the replay of Deja's race at Chester. A good workout with something else clearly in mind.
 
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