The 2022 Derby Thread

Simon Rowlands's early thoughts:

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

Obviously it was written before the Dante was run and Desert Crown is now, not unsurprisingly, top-rated on RPRs for the race and as we tick the trials off it's becoming increasingly less likely that something will come out and post a threatening performance.

But not impossible.

While I remain impressed by Desert Crown's performance at York, I can't help thinking he could win yet go down as a bang-average-at-best winner. I hope not. We need our heroes.

I'm hoping that Desert Crown will improve considerably for the outing and for the step up in trip. At this stage I'm not bothering about whether he might not act on the track at Epsom.

And maybe I should reiterate that I haven't backed him and probably won't. In the past there have probably been contenders with better form going into the race available at longer than 2/1. From memory, Mill Reef was 7/2 although I'd be happy to stand corrected. (7/2 was the price I laid it at to a pal on the bus to school that morning. I fancied Linden Tree. Stupid then, stupid now.)

But if a scientific approach like Simon Rowlands's is only bringing nearest contenders like Stone Age et al out at around 114, then Desert Crown could well win easily without having to improve on his York form.

I'm happy enough with my 33/1 about Eydon. As I said before, I'm also on Hafit (backed at 50/1 last summer), Nations Pride (14s, still to be supplemented), and yesterday, with a view to trying to sneak some value, I took El Bodegon (66/1) and Magisterial (100/1) in the belief that if they get there they won't be those prices.

I think those latter prices are gross ever-reactions to performances behind Desert Crown and for which connections were quick to make official excuses. Let's not forget that Workforce was beaten in the Dante before storming home in his Derby.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm happy enough with my 33/1 about Eydon. As I said before, I'm also on Hafit (backed at 50/1 last summer), Nations Pride (14s, still to be supplemented), and yesterday, with a view to trying to sneak some value, I took El Bodegon (66/1) and Magisterial (100/1) in the belief that if they get there they won't be those prices.

I think those latter prices are gross ever-reactions to performances behind Desert Crown and for which connections were quick to make official excuses. Let's not forget that Workforce was beaten in the Dante before storming home in his Derby.
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Hah! El B & Mag both scratched at today's forfeit stage. Clever as fvck. No sign of Hafit either and I won't know about Nations Pride until 30 May.

4:30 Epsom | Standard Racecard | 4 June 2022 | Racing Post
 
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https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/May/17/'worthy-favourite'-desert-crown-tops-21-in-derby-reckoning
Looking back at the Dante, Desert Crown comfortably disposed of a horse MJ once described as "very, very good" and was trained as a serious Derby contender, until taken apart by the SMS colt.
The trainer has no doubts about his temperament, or abilty to handle the track, and the horse has clearly got more improvement in him. Fwiw he's taken an almost identical path to Workforce (would have won the Dante without the slipped bit,imo) who went off to garner the Blue Riband, and a subsequent Arc De Triomphe.
We don't know the field, the going, or the likely pace yet, but - all things being equal - he looks the star bet of the season thus far,to me.
 
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reet hard said:
https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/May/17/'worthy-favourite'-desert-crown-tops-21-in-derby-reckoning
Looking back at the Dante, Desert Crown comfortably disposed of a horse MJ once described as "very, very good" and was trained as a serious Derby contender, until taken apart by the SMS colt.
The trainer has no doubts about his temperament, or abilty to handle the track, and the horse has clearly got more improvement in him. Fwiw he's taken an almost identical path to Workforce (would have won the Dante without the slipped bit,imo) who went off to garner the Blue Riband, and a subsequent Arc De Triomphe.
We don't know the field, the going, or the likely pace yet, but - all things being equal - he looks the star bet of the season thus far,to me.
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I think we do know the pace. Aidan will run everything and not one of them will take Stone Age on if he leads.
 
reet hard said:
https://www.attheraces.com/news/2022/May/17/'worthy-favourite'-desert-crown-tops-21-in-derby-reckoning
Looking back at the Dante, Desert Crown comfortably disposed of a horse MJ once described as "very, very good" and was trained as a serious Derby contender, until taken apart by the SMS colt.
The trainer has no doubts about his temperament, or abilty to handle the track, and the horse has clearly got more improvement in him. Fwiw he's taken an almost identical path to Workforce (would have won the Dante without the slipped bit,imo) who went off to garner the Blue Riband, and a subsequent Arc De Triomphe.
We don't know the field, the going, or the likely pace yet, but - all things being equal - he looks the star bet of the season thus far,to me.
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The proximity of bluegrass means aiden has a very good idea where his horses are in comparison to desert crown. I can see stone age improving considerably from his last run and should he get an easy lead at the top of the hill and cant see him being caught. He is the bet of the season imho. Looks perfect for epsom and will gallop relentlessly. Desert crown will need to be top,top class to beat him.
 
You mean an easier lead than he got in the slowly run Leopardstown trial, and you're expecting similar at Epsom,CM?
Wouldn't hold your breath, nor on Desert Crown not finding considerable improvement,too.
 
Nice to have you on board, Coach, hope you enjoy participating in the debates.

Coach miguel said:
The proximity of bluegrass means aiden has a very good idea where his horses are in comparison to desert crown. I can see stone age improving considerably from his last run and should he get an easy lead at the top of the hill and cant see him being caught. He is the bet of the season imho. Looks perfect for epsom and will gallop relentlessly.
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I'm not sure many people would argue with any of that as far as that point.

How much improvement would you expect - [very] roughly - from Stone Age?


Coach miguel said:
Desert crown will need to be top,top class to beat him.
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Wouldn't you anticipate considerable improvement from DC too? There's no way Stoute would have sent him to York 100% fit and risk leaving the Derby there. So he'll be fitter at Epsom. Then wouldn't you concede that DC is highly likely to be even better suited by the Derby trip than the Dante one?

If he improves 5lbs for the run and another 5lbs - ball-park figures - for the trip and he's already a 118 horse, he could hit 128-ish at Epsom, which would make him an above-average derby winner.

Stone Age is a 114-ish animal at the moment. We all anticipate further improvement for the run, certainly, but he too would also need to improve considerably for the trip to get into the high 120s.

Of the pair, I think I would fancy the Stoute horse to appreciate the extra distance more.

I accept that race tactics could favour Stone Age more but, for me, the chances are that Desert Crown will run past him late.

Again, I haven't backed Desert Crown but if he's still 2/1 on the day I could see me using him to cover all my other bets.
 
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Colin Phillips said:
Welcome to Talking Horses, Coach Miguel.
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Thanks. The fact that desert crown isnt odds on points to the fact that bookies know stone age is a serious player. We all have different views on races and the dante was full of non stayers and was inconclusive imho. Stone age has the physique for epsom and i will be disappointed if he gets beat.
 
I think the current betting is down to how the horses stand on ORs and Timeform ratings and how the compilers interpret them.

Both are average at best in the big scheme of things but both promise plenty. Luxembourg achieved at least as much as DC in the Guineas so they know there are better horses out there.

Would Desert Crown be favourite if Luxembourg was still in the race? I don't think so.

There's also the other Coolmore horses, one or more of which might actually be better than Stone Age.

I think the market is about right at the moment but the betting game is al about opinions. If your opinion of Stone Age is right then you're right to be smashing into him.
 
Slim said:
I don't get what you mean. Aidan could have 50% of the field and none of them will take on Stone Age. The draw will be vital. Desert Crown won't want a low draw.
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Because they are not up to it, or because of orders?
 
Slim said:
I don't get what you mean. Aidan could have 50% of the field and none of them will take on Stone Age. The draw will be vital. Desert Crown won't want a low draw.
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I mean Stone Age has the pedigree of a stayer (imo), and though he showed speed to beat a mediocre field, off a steady pace latest, looks unlikely to have the zip for Epsom.
Agree 0n one point, however - he'll likely try to burn them off, but wouldn't be my idea of a solid bet.
 
reet hard said:
I mean Stone Age has the pedigree of a stayer (imo), and though he showed speed to beat a mediocre field, off a steady pace latest, looks unlikely to have the zip for Epsom.
Agree 0n one point, however - he'll likely try to burn them off, but wouldn't be my idea of a solid bet.
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The field at leapordstown was far stronger than the dante imho and he blew them away. Yes it was any easy lead but he was not stopping. Not every derby winner can have the pace of a workforce. Galileo didnt have loads of toe but he was the best around and some. Yes one of aidens others could be better than we think and his sons have very good horses. Piz baddle id say is on a par with desert crown yet far longer in the betting.
Its what makes racing so good. We can all have an opinion and bet accordingly on it. To me the dante was a poor trial leading to desert crown being too short. I could be completely wrong but i can see him finishing well but a couple ahead of him. We can only guess how horses will improve with races and step up in trip. Stone age is getting better and looks a stronger this season. All the signs of a horse who will be at the business ends of group ones.
 
Desert crowns high rating is based on the runner up in the dante being rated 112. Bluegrass in third was rated 98 and was the same behind piz badile at leapardstown. On a line through that stone age should be well ahead in the betting plus desert crown didnt look an easy ride which doesnt augur well for epsom. Its all down to how you interpret the form.Horses like highland reel never got huge ratings but won loads of top class races.
 
barjon said:
Because they are not up to it, or because of orders?
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They will be under orders not to take Stone Age on and make life difficult for Desert Crown. Richard Kingscote is not the man you want in this situation. Racing isn't all about numbers and ratings.
 
reet hard said:
I mean Stone Age has the pedigree of a stayer (imo), and though he showed speed to beat a mediocre field, off a steady pace latest, looks unlikely to have the zip for Epsom.
Agree 0n one point, however - he'll likely try to burn them off, but wouldn't be my idea of a solid bet.
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A horse that's blitzed a field over 10f won't have the zip for 1m 4f?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think the current betting is down to how the horses stand on ORs and Timeform ratings and how the compilers interpret them.

Both are average at best in the big scheme of things but both promise plenty. Luxembourg achieved at least as much as DC in the Guineas so they know there are better horses out there.

Would Desert Crown be favourite if Luxembourg was still in the race? I don't think so.

There's also the other Coolmore horses, one or more of which might actually be better than Stone Age.

I think the market is about right at the moment but the betting game is al about opinions. If your opinion of Stone Age is right then you're right to be smashing into him.
Click to expand...

The market has moved towards Stone Age in the last week.
 
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