The 2022 Derby Thread

Tanlic said:
We clearly have differnt ideas what the Wow facor is


Horses like Frankel, Sir Ivor, Nijinsky Sea Bird, Mill Reef, Shergar aand Dancing Brave had the wow factor

I simply don't see Stone Age coming even close to what they achieved
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Christ. He needs to be good enough to win a Derby not be an all time great.
 
Grey said:
Those of us watching it live at Leopardstown certainly thought Stone Age's performance had the wow factor. He showed a burst of acceleration that drew oohs and aahs and it was no surprise when he went to the top of the market for the Derby.

Most people felt beforehand that the Leopardstown trial was a good renewal and it produced a clear winner who did it in good style.
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That's often the case with trial races.

They can look good on paper and winners can impress but as the season unfolds they prove to be more moderate.

Obviously I'm a great believer in quantifiability and when the numbers back up the visuals then we can bet like hooligans but the numbers didn't back up the Stone Age performance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's often the case with trial races.

They can look good on paper and winners can impress but as the season unfolds they prove to be more moderate.

Obviously I'm a great believer in quantifiability and when the numbers back up the visuals then we can bet like hooligans but the numbers didn't back up the Stone Age performance.
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How often are your numbers right/wrong?
 
Desert Orchid said:
That's often the case with trial races.

They can look good on paper and winners can impress but as the season unfolds they prove to be more moderate.

Obviously I'm a great believer in quantifiability and when the numbers back up the visuals then we can bet like hooligans but the numbers didn't back up the Stone Age performance.
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Absolutely. The race was merely a trial, not the real thing. Let’s see what happens on the big day.
 
Slim said:
Christ. He needs to be good enough to win a Derby not be an all time great.
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Your command of the Queens English needs an upgrade:)

The point was did he display the WOW factor at Leopardstown or not? IMO No he did not....Moore whipped him like a bitch to get him to pick up.

The horses mentioned were simply an example of horses who did show the WOW factor before winning their Derby's.........do try and keep up:whistle:
 
Grey said:
Those of us watching it live at Leopardstown certainly thought Stone Age's performance had the wow factor. He showed a burst of acceleration that drew oohs and aahs and it was no surprise when he went to the top of the market for the Derby.

Most people felt beforehand that the Leopardstown trial was a good renewal and it produced a clear winner who did it in good style.
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Whichever way you dress it up, steadily run races often produce 'wow' factors (at all levels) but are rarely a proper test of a horse's merit.
 
Slim said:
How often are your numbers right/wrong?
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Often enough to keep me relying on them but I wasn't referring just to my own.

When the likes of Simon Rowlands and/or Timeform's sectional data back up the visuals then I read it as a positive. When they suggest that perhaps the performance should be treated with caution then it would be a brave punter who doubles down on an opposing viewpoint; brave and not necessarily foolish, I should add, since I recall one intrepid form student farting against thunder with an ageing grey handicap hurdler... :)
 
DO, what factor do you give most importance to when you are deciding when a race has been truly run? This is in no way a dig, it has always been a question that I have asked myself.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Often enough to keep me relying on them but I wasn't referring just to my own.

When the likes of Simon Rowlands and/or Timeform's sectional data back up the visuals then I read it as a positive. When they suggest that perhaps the performance should be treated with caution then it would be a brave punter who doubles down on an opposing viewpoint; brave and not necessarily foolish, I should add, since I recall one intrepid form student farting against thunder with an ageing grey handicap hurdler... :)
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Aidan knows that nobody knows anything bar what your eyes tell you.

https://twitter.com/TheJockeyClub/status/1527939755895361537?t=Aut3KPwmncNbMICb-OLP8g&s=19
 
I wouldn't say I had a single factor, Colin.

When I 'tackle' a race result with a view to giving it ratings, the first thing I do is log in my pre-race ratings to see how closely the principals have run to them.

Then I take account of the class of race and see how those figures compare to what I would expect of a race of that class. I'm of the belief that Flat horses generally improve through their careers until they're about five so I'm prepared to raise the overall level of ratings if the class (or value) of the race strongly suggests it makes sense. I started doing this a number of years back and strongly believe it addresses the issue of stagnant ratings.

I then check the times. A moderate or slow time can be pretty much ignored - as can some of the form - but a fast time is something I want to dig into a wee bit more.

Sectionals are a relatively recent thing but I'm open to their being of significance. For me, they're a quantifiable approach to what visuals can suggest.

I recall many years ago - it must have been shortly after joining in the mid-late 1990s - suggesting re-watching races on a good VTR on FF. I thought doing so highlighted when certain runners used their speed. I don't think FFing digital images gives the same impression but sectionals can.

I'm old enough and experienced enough to accept that no matter how strongly I feel about form, I can get it totally wrong. I think being open to one's own possible failings is a constant reminder of the dangers of complacency, which can be costly.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've maybe just thrown away some dosh but I've taken 14/1 Nations Pride. It doesn't hold an entry so will need to be supplemented but what it did the other day is right up there with anything outside of the front three in the Guineas and I can't see them not supplementing it, in which case it will halve in price.
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Looks like they're seriously considering supplementing him:

'I'd ride Nations Pride' - Charlie Appleby on Godolphin's Derby dark horse | Horse Racing News | Racing Post
 
I've decided to double down on Nations Pride at 10/1 (Ladbrokes boosting it to 11s).

Could prove pretty costly if they decide against supplementing...

The dam's side isn't overloaded with stamina but the overall dosage profile is promising, albeit the figures are on the low side:

NATIONS PRIDE
ped_i.gif
(IRE) b. C, 2019 {10} DP = 1-2-9-6-0 (18) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.11

Still, it was winning over 10f last season so I'd have to hope it can improve again for the extra trip.

Because it doesn't have an entry it doesn't appear in the racecard but on adjusted RPRs it would be in the top five and on ORs it is only 1lb behind Desert Crown.
 
Just read they have supplemented Nation Pride who's best priced at 7/1 now. That still looks quite generous

The Derby beginning to look quite competetive and may not be the foregone conclusion SMS seems to think it is.

Any one of six or more horses could improve massively at this stage of their careers and cause an upset.
 
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I had another look Desert Crown could be very special but I just think Westover is a good each way bet. He could be right up there with the pace I reckon backers should get a good run for the money and he might be hard to peg back if he goes from the front.
 
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Rain has turned the Epsom ground Soft G/S in places

50/50 that Saturday could be a washout according to forecasters

Think this is playing into the favourites hands, won on g/s at Nottingham and is by Nathaniel who handled soft ok

Stone Age ran like a farm animal in the mud at Longchamp and i'll be putting a line through him if the rain comes

The 2 Frankels Nahanni and Westover look interesting now at prices
 
Truncheon said:
Rain has turned the Epsom ground Soft G/S in places

50/50 that Saturday could be a washout according to forecasters

Think this is playing into the favourites hands, won on g/s at Nottingham and is by Nathaniel who handled soft ok

Stone Age ran like a farm animal in the mud at Longchamp and i'll be putting a line through him if the rain comes

The 2 Frankels Nahanni and Westover look interesting now at prices
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Yes even Star Of India is now of interest as his win in the trial at Chester was on gd-st.

It's either him or Westover each way for me but if the rain does come as predicted then I think Star Of India will run well.
 
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Truncheon said:
Rain has turned the Epsom ground Soft G/S in places

50/50 that Saturday could be a washout according to forecasters

Think this is playing into the favourites hands, won on g/s at Nottingham and is by Nathaniel who handled soft ok

Stone Age ran like a farm animal in the mud at Longchamp and i'll be putting a line through him if the rain comes

The 2 Frankels Nahanni and Westover look interesting now at prices
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All the forecasts that I've seen indicate minimal rainfall so I'd be thinking that the fresh ground will be good, good to soft in places on the day.
 
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