The 2022 Longshot Thread

I was a bit annoyed with myself for not backing T2A in the Welsh National. I only gave Paul Kealy's article in the Weekender a cursory glance due to other things happening - he tipped it for the race at 50/1 - but the horse is one I was backing a couple of seasons back when it was in top form. When I did my ratings I checked the trainer's record rather than looking back to the horse's old form and decided it was on the downgrade so let it go but it was only 18/1 when I checked the betting anyway. I hadn't realised it was 50s earlier in the week.
 
moehat said:
I think we need to keep an eye on Nicky Martins runners. I looked at her 200/1 winner last night but couldn’t make a case for it. I even looked up her strike rate in the early hours of this morning and discounted it. I apologise for aftertiming but The Two Amiga’s was top rated in my little system for the Welsh which is why I looked at her runner today. I think I was logged out of my WHill account and couldn’t be bothered to go onto oddschecker to put a few pennies on. I’d even been reading an old Racing Post article about Nicky Martin and hadn’t realised she was a ‘she’.
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Kind of snap here, Moehat. This was a painful lesson today for me. I'll spill the story cos it'll help me process this one into the 'forget about it' box

Glanced through the runners 10 mins before the race, and only three jumped out - Nicky's, Honeyballs, and the favorite. The favorite I figured was only 50/50 to throw in a bad one again. Honeyball's and all others unknown.

There was some alarm going off in my head saying 'come on, you've seen a NM running a race out of the blue in a novice or maiden before. But I couldn't put my finger on who it was. And, of course, The Two Amigos connection was there.

So a glance at the form. Nothing. But in this race, that wouldn't matter.

Sire? No good. Galileo Gold has only had a handful of jumps runners and nothing there (but with such a small sample, again, that wasn't a conclusive enough rule out).

Jockey? Nope, Sean Bowen one placed from five. But again, too small a sample really.

Filly against males in a 3-year-old hurdle. Off the flat with one recent unplaced hurdles run. Unlikely!

******

Something happened in the house, and I went off to take care of it. Lost track.

Came back to laptop, still open on the Betfair win page. And that moment of horror when you're on the top half of the page, the winner isn't there, and you know yours was down the bottom somewhere.

Scrolled down with an unavoidable 'oh please no'.

Think it was 765.

Then a quick look at what should have been the next step - maidens 21 in first 4 from 37, novices 31 from 71. In other words, close to one from every two runners for youngsters in the first 4.

And then the next step - the first two hurdle races. And groan...the last was against older novices, two or three of which could be listed class and a fair few of the others good handicappers in time. She had zero chance there and finished accordingly.

At the very least, it should have been a quid win or a few on the first four, just in case.

Philosophical (as you have to be) but mildly gutted still. Next time! :-)
 
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I don’t know why I get logged out of my WHill account. I can still watch races and can see my transactions but when I come to place a but I’m logged out. The only way I can log on again is to reboot my iPad which takes time or place the bet on oddschecker which also takes time. As you know I like to back last minute steamers so it’s a bit frustrating to suddenly find myself logged out. AnnHamilton had a winner today that I should have backed, too. Problem with following lady trainers is that there are too many of them now. Was easier when there was just Sheena West and Pam Sly and a couple of others! I’m going to pm you my ‘system’. I don’t want to embarrass myself by putting it on here…
 
moehat said:
I don’t know why I get logged out of my WHill account. I can still watch races and can see my transactions but when I come to place a but I’m logged out. The only way I can log on again is to reboot my iPad which takes time or place the bet on oddschecker which also takes time. As you know I like to back last minute steamers so it’s a bit frustrating to suddenly find myself logged out. AnnHamilton had a winner today that I should have backed, too. Problem with following lady trainers is that there are too many of them now. Was easier when there was just Sheena West and Pam Sly and a couple of others! I’m going to pm you my ‘system’. I don’t want to embarrass myself by putting it on here…
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It may be one of the 'punter protection' settings. Have a look at your settings, or ask Customer Service.

Lady trainers. Yes, plenty to follow. It still hurts missing Ann Duffield's 200-1 winner a couple of years ago :-(
 
If you're accessing it via an app, the first step is probably to delete it and reinstall. And/or clear caches. I suspect that's what the customer support people will say.
 
I have trouble with w.hill sometimes.i just thought it was my signal.
I try to put a bet on and it keeps saying log in when I'm already logged in.
And when I press open bets to see what I've done it wont let me.
 
Marb said:
A couple for me on Saturday.

Newbury 2.25 Kalooki pulled clear with Cat Tiger last season at Doncaster when just prevailing and that showcased Kalooki at his best. Cat Tiger actually franked the form a couple of times after. Kalooki seems to have lost his form since then, but maybe Phillip Hobbs can bring him back now that Kalooki races off this mark of 130. I've taken a chance at 20/1.
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Crikey. There's market support for Grumpy Charley. I backed Grumpy the last day where he went out like a light. Be kicking myself if he wins, though happy enough with Kalooki at the prices.
 
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Outsider said:
I have trouble with w.hill sometimes.i just thought it was my signal.
I try to put a bet on and it keeps saying log in when I'm already logged in.
And when I press open bets to see what I've done it wont let me.
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Yes. That’s what happens to me. And it happens randomly. I can’t log in because I’m already logged in.
 
Tritonic in the Relkeel 2.30 Cheltenham tomorrow 33-1 Hills and a couple of others

Chances are there, and 33s looks wrong. Wasn't that far off ILTMI in Oct 21 when they were both still babies. Both moving up to two-and-a-half first time, could go either way. Although being by Trans Island, ILTMI's best distance ought to be two-and-a-half. You don't often see Trans Island's running at this level, indeed I can't remember one.

Tritonic's flat stamina suggests every chance he can see it out and maybe improve a little. Can put in the odd cold run but evidence suggests a 6-week to 2-month break and then not facing heavy ground is a good enough time to catch him.

Three other obvious dangers at the head of the market, but that's why we get the 33s, ofc.


PS Hills boosted the double with Jacamar to 2600-1
 
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Marb said:
Crikey. There's market support for Grumpy Charley. I backed Grumpy the last day where he went out like a light. Be kicking myself if he wins, though happy enough with Kalooki at the prices.
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Oh dear. Backed Charley last time and anti post for the hennessy where he didn't turn up. What a dickhead I am. Abandoning him has cost me about 3K today.

I am still nicely up. I suppose I couldn't have it all..
 
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Unlucky Marb. Tough when that happens. On the plus side, yet another example of one you spotted that had something. In the long run, that means good chances it'll come back.
 
Oh Marb. I really thought you’d backed him. You don’t forget a horse with a name like that. Ouch. At least I made a point of backing todays Nicky Martin runner. You know the one that started right out the back and finished right out the back ( if it finished at all…). It’s been one of those days! Best forgotten.
 
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