chaumi
Rookie
Thx Outsider, there's a chance our shouting was worth half a length, and that's all it took!
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The 2022 Longshot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
Thx Outsider, there's a chance our shouting was worth half a length, and that's all it took!
...NR
Runs tomorrow 225 Uttox in a class 4.not a longshot now but has been backed from 33/1 into 10/1
I hate it when I miss a price.
chaumi
Rookie
Yeah that's painful. Thomas Doggrell certainly has a good record for the stable, over two-thirds of rides in the first 4. Well over any norm, from a good number of runners (30). Would leave you to make a reasonable assumption that Toronto is likely on point for this.
chaumi
Rookie
About 6 months ago, we noted (here, I think) that it might be worth watching out for ex-Willie Mullins runners on mainland tracks. One or two have gone in at big odds.
Wearapinkribbon 3.40 Taunton The 100-1 has gone with B365, now 66. But still 80-1 Hills. EDIT I suspect that disappeared at WH as I was typing. Now best is 365's 66-1)
So this Shantou/Presenting gelding finds himself just scraping into a Class 5 here, it's taken a while to drop a little, although was hanging on to the leaders until about 2 out in a long-distance Newton Abbott Class 3 in May this year and ultimately not beaten (overly) far. Possible he was still acclimatising at the time.
Helen Nelmes has had the odd big-priced winner over the years, although they're certainly not what you'd call easy to find. But on breeding, two at least were findable before their races.
There's a small worry that there's another runner from the stable lurking at the foot of the weights and getting close to two stones from his stablemate - a long-standing maiden that's put in a couple of mildly promising long-distance runs at times. And the jockey bookings suggest this runner - Menapian - may be preferred of the two.
Small stakes. But if there is any of the ability still apparent, there doesn't look to be anything else in the field to get excited about, and Weara might put in a decent run on the good ground (the maiden he won in Ireland was reportedly yielding, it looked kicking up to me in a couple of places but generally gave the appearance of what's likely today).
Wearapinkribbon 3.40 Taunton The 100-1 has gone with B365, now 66. But still 80-1 Hills. EDIT I suspect that disappeared at WH as I was typing. Now best is 365's 66-1)
So this Shantou/Presenting gelding finds himself just scraping into a Class 5 here, it's taken a while to drop a little, although was hanging on to the leaders until about 2 out in a long-distance Newton Abbott Class 3 in May this year and ultimately not beaten (overly) far. Possible he was still acclimatising at the time.
Helen Nelmes has had the odd big-priced winner over the years, although they're certainly not what you'd call easy to find. But on breeding, two at least were findable before their races.
There's a small worry that there's another runner from the stable lurking at the foot of the weights and getting close to two stones from his stablemate - a long-standing maiden that's put in a couple of mildly promising long-distance runs at times. And the jockey bookings suggest this runner - Menapian - may be preferred of the two.
Small stakes. But if there is any of the ability still apparent, there doesn't look to be anything else in the field to get excited about, and Weara might put in a decent run on the good ground (the maiden he won in Ireland was reportedly yielding, it looked kicking up to me in a couple of places but generally gave the appearance of what's likely today).
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Len Madeiros
Rookie
Perfectly explained, Chaumi. I’m happy to follow you in. I’ve also done Menapian.
These bookies do seem to fiddle sp's.
I had a horse in my alerts today but didnt bother as I thought hcaps further down the line was to be the way to go.
THE RAIN KING 135t finished 3rd 80/1
Before the race it was 250/1 and betfair exchange sp was 261.71
So 80/1 was pathetic.
I had a horse in my alerts today but didnt bother as I thought hcaps further down the line was to be the way to go.
THE RAIN KING 135t finished 3rd 80/1
Before the race it was 250/1 and betfair exchange sp was 261.71
So 80/1 was pathetic.
chaumi
Rookie
Agreed, no way TRK should have gone off less than 200-1 SP. I'll make a guess it was EW fears that dropped the price late on, there were one or two other outsiders running that will eventually be up to something but neither could be expected to get within 20-30 lengths of the winner at this stage.
BF price was ofc made by the second fav and the favorite, on paper neither could be beaten in this race, barring an accident. Or at least both couldn't. It might be interesting to see what the BF 3rd and 4th place returns were for TRK.
Menaplan 3rd btn by a 40/1 and a 33/1.so annoying that.
chaumi
Rookie
Hopefully you went EW both, Len, for a tiny profit or at least to cover the bets. Another hurdle, and Menapian may have got it.
Weara showed nothing, but still worth watching for at a big price in a class 5, given the jockey bookings gave us a small clue as to what might happen. Helen Nelmes tends not to over race her runners, so chances are there will be 2 or 3 more goes this season for Wearapinkribbon to get in the first three at 33-1 +, maybe bigger.
Len Madeiros
Rookie
She’s a very low key trainer, alright - averaging one winner per season over the last eight years! But Menapian gave me a small overall profit at 40/1. Thank you, pal.
Please remind me if Wearapinkribbon runs again: I backed it yesterday and I’ll kick myself if it wins and I miss it!
chaumi
Rookie
Sure thing, Moehat. I think that goes for all of us
It's always the ones you miss that are the most painful.
simmo
Senior Jockey
Have had a couple of quid on rouge vif in the 300C at 44 on the machine. Runs off 135, rated 160 over the bigger obstacles at his best.
chaumi
Rookie
The December Gold Cup should be fun if racing goes ahead. Suspect there aren't too many of us that won't be surprised if the winner comes from one of about ten or twelve!
But I keep coming back to Jacamar at 50-1 B3, mainly based on the CD Grade 3 back in Jan where he jumped around six or seven stickily but was still close enough coming to two out that he still had a chance.
That (and one or two others, notably the Kempton novice where he beat Mr Coffey on Boxing Day last year) suggests a level of toughness that may stand him well in this race.
Since those races, his jumping appears to have generally improved.
Expect him to appear to be struggling somewhere in the front 8 between 3 out and 2 out, but if he can jump those last few cleanly, there's a good chance he'll fight hard for it from there. With the likely pace throughout, those up front might just not have enough to keep going. I can see him out-finishing many in the race as long as the pace does hold up.
Visor first time is a little worry and introduces an unknown. But equally, that could bring out some improvement.
The real good news. He looks underrated, and if it isn't here, he'll click in a big race somewhere or walk a lesser race at a potentially backable price. Losses will be recouped another day.
But I keep coming back to Jacamar at 50-1 B3, mainly based on the CD Grade 3 back in Jan where he jumped around six or seven stickily but was still close enough coming to two out that he still had a chance.
That (and one or two others, notably the Kempton novice where he beat Mr Coffey on Boxing Day last year) suggests a level of toughness that may stand him well in this race.
Since those races, his jumping appears to have generally improved.
Expect him to appear to be struggling somewhere in the front 8 between 3 out and 2 out, but if he can jump those last few cleanly, there's a good chance he'll fight hard for it from there. With the likely pace throughout, those up front might just not have enough to keep going. I can see him out-finishing many in the race as long as the pace does hold up.
Visor first time is a little worry and introduces an unknown. But equally, that could bring out some improvement.
The real good news. He looks underrated, and if it isn't here, he'll click in a big race somewhere or walk a lesser race at a potentially backable price. Losses will be recouped another day.
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Hes got to carry the extra weight though Chaumi.yours,mine and I think DOs.
chaumi
Rookie
chaumi
Rookie
LOL best laugh of the day
Hang on. I think it was the only laugh of the day. I lead a desperate life.
Hate to tell you this folks but I’m currently backing/following Miltons horses and I’m having a seriously bad run of losing bets.
chaumi
Rookie
chaumi
Rookie
Since we'll be deprived of any possibility of a big winner today (and maybe tomorrow, too)...and maybe some of us might be twiddling thumbs and/or getting the jitters, now seems a good time to ask for some help.
Some preamble first to set the scene, but when it gets to the end, you'll see it has some background related to our subject (but DO, if you'd prefer I put this on a separate thread, just lmk. I did think of doing that, but in the end, I figured it would be OK here. But there are understandable perspectives that suggest it might have been better elsewhere. I'd have no worries about moving it).
So.....
I write content for several websites (and do other stuff around search engine optimisation, technical improvements etc - mainly gambling-related sites, casino games, poker, general sports betting, etc etc etc).
Very few of my writing efforts have been around horse racing. Mainly because it's always felt too personal, and now posting here would meet every need to share anything anyway; plus I know that anyone reading here likely shares the interest on an emotional level.
However, around 5-6 years ago, I did write one article that was published on a site. And I noticed today it's still there.
So I rarely get any opportunities to receive feedback on my style and quality of writing. Any feedback - positive or negative - would likely have some benefit to how I approach other work now.
The ask is that anyone who might be at a loose end could have a look and 'pass judgment'.
*******************************
The article is published on a (UK-focused) site called bettingtools.
Now, around 6 years ago, I got into a discussion with the then-owner (Brian) on a different forum. At the time, the site was really interesting. Plenty of useful betting-related info, 'in-house tipsters' with pretty reasonable strike rates, etc etc. I offered to write something for publication (not entirely altruistic, it contains an unobtrusive link to a site I'm involved with).
Since then, it looks like Brian sold the site. It now just appears to be a very basic gambling-related info site, I'm guessing purchased for SEO-related reasons. The tipster section has gone. Several of the good articles appear to have gone, too. So, much of its benefit (to punters) has reduced significantly, though the new owners may still have plans to build it up again.
But as I say, my article is still there.
**************************
So, bear in mind while reading......
It was written for an audience that would likely be nowhere near the level of a typical TalkingHorses member, both in knowledge, experience, and emotional engagement with horses and racing.
Based on that knowledge, experience, and emotional engagement, there is nothing in it that will be new to anyone here that might read it now (well, at a minimum, to anyone who posts, anyway. And possibly to many that don't).
My own style will have changed a little in the intervening 5-6 years, as my experiences since may have changed some of the ways the content was written, too ( I can already see a couple of areas I may have covered slightly differently). But my feeling was it was reasonably well-presented.
It wasn't supposed to be completely exhaustive, 'just' enough information to be seen as valuable and, of course, accurate.
So...
Do you think it is well-presented?
Did it give enough info that would have been valuable to the likely type of punter that was using that site? (ie someone following tipsters that may not have possessed the knowledge/experience/time to work out their own selections).
Was it well-written, in general?
Do you think that someone interested in the subject would likely have read through? (as opposed to just skimming for a few seconds)?
Where could I have improved/enhanced it?
Would you have done it differently?
What might you have added?
Did I make any glaring errors?
Do you disagree with anything stated?
Any other viewpoints?
Surprise, surprise...the article was titled 'how to find long-priced horse racing winners'
https://www.bettingtools.co.uk/blog/how-to-find-long-priced-horse-racing-winners/
Some preamble first to set the scene, but when it gets to the end, you'll see it has some background related to our subject (but DO, if you'd prefer I put this on a separate thread, just lmk. I did think of doing that, but in the end, I figured it would be OK here. But there are understandable perspectives that suggest it might have been better elsewhere. I'd have no worries about moving it).
So.....
I write content for several websites (and do other stuff around search engine optimisation, technical improvements etc - mainly gambling-related sites, casino games, poker, general sports betting, etc etc etc).
Very few of my writing efforts have been around horse racing. Mainly because it's always felt too personal, and now posting here would meet every need to share anything anyway; plus I know that anyone reading here likely shares the interest on an emotional level.
However, around 5-6 years ago, I did write one article that was published on a site. And I noticed today it's still there.
So I rarely get any opportunities to receive feedback on my style and quality of writing. Any feedback - positive or negative - would likely have some benefit to how I approach other work now.
The ask is that anyone who might be at a loose end could have a look and 'pass judgment'.
*******************************
The article is published on a (UK-focused) site called bettingtools.
Now, around 6 years ago, I got into a discussion with the then-owner (Brian) on a different forum. At the time, the site was really interesting. Plenty of useful betting-related info, 'in-house tipsters' with pretty reasonable strike rates, etc etc. I offered to write something for publication (not entirely altruistic, it contains an unobtrusive link to a site I'm involved with).
Since then, it looks like Brian sold the site. It now just appears to be a very basic gambling-related info site, I'm guessing purchased for SEO-related reasons. The tipster section has gone. Several of the good articles appear to have gone, too. So, much of its benefit (to punters) has reduced significantly, though the new owners may still have plans to build it up again.
But as I say, my article is still there.
**************************
So, bear in mind while reading......
It was written for an audience that would likely be nowhere near the level of a typical TalkingHorses member, both in knowledge, experience, and emotional engagement with horses and racing.
Based on that knowledge, experience, and emotional engagement, there is nothing in it that will be new to anyone here that might read it now (well, at a minimum, to anyone who posts, anyway. And possibly to many that don't).
My own style will have changed a little in the intervening 5-6 years, as my experiences since may have changed some of the ways the content was written, too ( I can already see a couple of areas I may have covered slightly differently). But my feeling was it was reasonably well-presented.
It wasn't supposed to be completely exhaustive, 'just' enough information to be seen as valuable and, of course, accurate.
So...
Do you think it is well-presented?
Did it give enough info that would have been valuable to the likely type of punter that was using that site? (ie someone following tipsters that may not have possessed the knowledge/experience/time to work out their own selections).
Was it well-written, in general?
Do you think that someone interested in the subject would likely have read through? (as opposed to just skimming for a few seconds)?
Where could I have improved/enhanced it?
Would you have done it differently?
What might you have added?
Did I make any glaring errors?
Do you disagree with anything stated?
Any other viewpoints?
Surprise, surprise...the article was titled 'how to find long-priced horse racing winners'
https://www.bettingtools.co.uk/blog/how-to-find-long-priced-horse-racing-winners/
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chaumi
Rookie
I just realised..that's probably in the region of 42 stone (a wild guess, ofc). It's fortunate for our wallets that today's race never happened! But equally wildly disappointing.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
Well I'm 12-0 so you guys must be some size :lol:
chaumi
Rookie
Too many chocolate digestives for me. So, even if Outsider is 'slim punter of the year 2022', I'd say 36 stone or so would still likely have caused us some problems.
Well I'm 12-0 so you guys must be some size :lol:
I'm 12 stone as well.is that joint topweight?
Since we'll be deprived of any possibility of a big winner today (and maybe tomorrow, too)...and maybe some of us might be twiddling thumbs and/or getting the jitters, now seems a good time to ask for some help.
Some preamble first to set the scene, but when it gets to the end, you'll see it has some background related to our subject (but DO, if you'd prefer I put this on a separate thread, just lmk. I did think of doing that, but in the end, I figured it would be OK here. But there are understandable perspectives that suggest it might have been better elsewhere. I'd have no worries about moving it).
So.....
I write content for several websites (and do other stuff around search engine optimisation, technical improvements etc - mainly gambling-related sites, casino games, poker, general sports betting, etc etc etc).
Very few of my writing efforts have been around horse racing. Mainly because it's always felt too personal, and now posting here would meet every need to share anything anyway; plus I know that anyone reading here likely shares the interest on an emotional level.
However, around 5-6 years ago, I did write one article that was published on a site. And I noticed today it's still there.
So I rarely get any opportunities to receive feedback on my style and quality of writing. Any feedback - positive or negative - would likely have some benefit to how I approach other work now.
The ask is that anyone who might be at a loose end could have a look and 'pass judgment'.
*******************************
The article is published on a (UK-focused) site called bettingtools.
Now, around 6 years ago, I got into a discussion with the then-owner (Brian) on a different forum. At the time, the site was really interesting. Plenty of useful betting-related info, 'in-house tipsters' with pretty reasonable strike rates, etc etc. I offered to write something for publication (not entirely altruistic, it contains an unobtrusive link to a site I'm involved with).
Since then, it looks like Brian sold the site. It now just appears to be a very basic gambling-related info site, I'm guessing purchased for SEO-related reasons. The tipster section has gone. Several of the good articles appear to have gone, too. So, much of its benefit (to punters) has reduced significantly, though the new owners may still have plans to build it up again.
But as I say, my article is still there.
**************************
So, bear in mind while reading......
It was written for an audience that would likely be nowhere near the level of a typical TalkingHorses member, both in knowledge, experience, and emotional engagement with horses and racing.
Based on that knowledge, experience, and emotional engagement, there is nothing in it that will be new to anyone here that might read it now (well, at a minimum, to anyone who posts, anyway. And possibly to many that don't).
My own style will have changed a little in the intervening 5-6 years, as my experiences since may have changed some of the ways the content was written, too ( I can already see a couple of areas I may have covered slightly differently). But my feeling was it was reasonably well-presented.
It wasn't supposed to be completely exhaustive, 'just' enough information to be seen as valuable and, of course, accurate.
So...
Do you think it is well-presented?
Did it give enough info that would have been valuable to the likely type of punter that was using that site? (ie someone following tipsters that may not have possessed the knowledge/experience/time to work out their own selections).
Was it well-written, in general?
Do you think that someone interested in the subject would likely have read through? (as opposed to just skimming for a few seconds)?
Where could I have improved/enhanced it?
Would you have done it differently?
What might you have added?
Did I make any glaring errors?
Do you disagree with anything stated?
Any other viewpoints?
Surprise, surprise...the article was titled 'how to find long-priced horse racing winners'
https://www.bettingtools.co.uk/blog/how-to-find-long-priced-horse-racing-winners/
Just about sums me up except the breeding bit.
The bit about horses that run well once can do so again.i have patience.
Has done me well over the years and theres nothing better than picking a big priced winner and especially if I've put it up.
Wings of eagles derby win was very satisfying.